I may ask for a little help coming up. I have to travel from Vegas to California for my daughter's college graduation. Not sure if I'll be able to track things for the series that start on Thursday May 23 and Friday May 24 through that weekend. Anyone want to volunteer now for these days?
Looking ahead the series that start on Monday May 27 are all 2 game series as are the following series on Wednesday May 29. That'll be interesting. teams will need to qualify for both for a play. Chance for some double dips though.
MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012
MLB RPI system in a nutshell. The
RPI tends to tighten as the season progresses, so post all star game I
use different numbers.
1. This is a series chase. I DO
NOT chase after a 3rd straight loss in a 4 game series. IDK why, but I don't.
You can if you like.
2. How to pick series. Pre all
star game: check the upcoming series. Check the ESPN RPI rankings.
If any team is the visiting
team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home
team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.
If any team is the home team
and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team,
take the home team for a series chase. In 2011 if we used 40 points as a home
team we would have had an extra loss with the NYY at the Beg. of the
season.
Filters:
1. If the lower RPI has been
playing significantly better baseball over the last week or so, do not
play the series.
2. Losing streaks. Big losing
streaks by better RPI team, dont play series.
3. Teams going in obvious
opposite directions in the W/L column, I will take the series even if off a
Point or max 2 on the rpi.
4. Injuries. Watch how the teams
play for a few days then decide to take a series if a good player has been
hurt. The Angels lost Kendry Morales and went on a 10 game winning streak two
(2) years ago. Go figure, so watch.
5. Another note, in a 4 game
series, if, and ONLY if the team you bet on for the series wins the FIRST game
of a four game series, start the series over the next day as a new series.
Basically, wwe would be banking they will win one of the next 3 as well.
6. New rule implemented last
year: Do NOT take a team that is .500% or below no matter how far off the RPI
is. If we had used this rule last year
we would have went undefeated.
7. If team with higher RPI is
playing BACK TO BACK TWO (2) game series, take the chase as if playing a 4 game
series versus a lesser opponent. Both
teams MUST meet the RPI qualifications before the first game of the first 2
game series.
8. POST
All STAR GAME RPI DIFFERENCE NEEDED IS: 35 Home and 42 for Visitor
Now here is the thing - the way we determined if 1) Opp is playing better baseball 2) RPI team is on a losing streak OR 3) Teams going in opposite directions in W/L column was to look at last 10 and and total wins
This is how we did it last year - Last year we set last 10 to >4 and >3 wins than opponent
I just looked at the 2013 sheet - and we have the filters set too low - we have it set to last 10>=3 and win edge >=3
Maybe that's why we have been getting so many plays - well I can just tell you what was set up last year - you guys decide what you want to set the filters to.
Not sure where we got 4 and 3 from last year - I think B2W sent me a PM with what we should use - i'll see if I can dig it out.
Now let the swirl begin - i'm sure there will be many opinions on what thresholds to use.
The rpi difference yesterday for the start of the series was 50, making them a play.
For today:
Colo B game
NYY A game
Cincy A game
STL A game
Welcome. Both are 4-6 in their last 10. Yes the Dodgers have won 4 out last 5, but they were at home against a Harperless Wash (2-1 series record) and Miami (2-1 series record). Before those 5 they lost 8 in a row including getting swept at home by AZ.
Atlanta went 4-6 on a road trip to Cincy, SF and AZ - 3 good teams. Atlanta is back home now where their are 9-5 while LAD are 6-9 on the road. Also, no Kershaw for this series for LA. Atlanta has the better team and clear pittching advantage.
Bottom line is it does qualify for an official play. Your call if you want to play it or not. Sometimes when I feel iffy on a play I'll lay off or bet 1/2 of what I usually do.
Good observation on the recent streaks.
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