Not another MLB chase system but......

Back now......

So far 

2-0 ... +2.3u 

with 1 series open Nyy

It's rpi based so if there's a way to back test rpi ratings in the past, then be my guess and apply the other filters that can be tracked completing the formula of the result. I couldn't find one so once I saw a consistent and profitable enough pattern out of many variances with the goal of mitigating risk and maximizing profit, then I followed it for a month - looked solid...... so the only record I got is what I layer on the line from my accounts at 5dimes and bookmaker. 

Much of the fruit from the foundation of filters I use st from the greats of times past and their fundamental rules to chasing and some of the guys here that have been holding it down running things over time.

And that's the beauty to it all..... the grind in the chase

Otherwise we wouldn't have the irony of Nascar

Rules coming right up

However I can provide those records in my respect to my privacy and keep it real, I'll be glad to. Let's just say we're onto something here guys and I believe though I still do my thing, maybe a better edge can be added along the way with input and collaboration 

Just like Fight Club.......

Stay away from the Angels, they are Sd Chargers of MLB

You bet on them..... they lose - you bet against them..... they win

Bet at your own risk when involved with the Angels

Moving on......

Thanks first off to the likes of Danrules and such putting in a lot here over time. I use to be around years back under another handle when SN was running things with his system (and boy was that a fun ride, thanks man) back then but life gets in the way, long story short..... it's glad to be back

So now the team betting on - these are the basic rules that can be broken but at own risk

Must be the lower ranked of the match up rpi wise  (I use espn) and with in .25 of that range for optimum results. One can stray out of that range as a few points here or there if they believe there is value elsewhere in the equation that can over compensate for the risk of breaking this rule 

The team betting on must not be 3-7 or worse in their last 10 games and not be in a 3 game losing streak or more

The same goes for the team betting against. They must not be 7-3 or better in their last 10 games and not be on a win streak of 3 games or more

Now.... these rules can be broken to add more plays if one sees value elsewhere I'm the match-up for the dog to win at least one game. It hasn't failed me breaking the rules in the past but again talk is cheap, what I will do is explain why a certain in play I choose is chosen breaking said rule like tonight and Baltimore and Houston with those series in the books......

For record purposes, I will be starting with a BN of 200 units and chasing like this.....

Gm ... 1 ... risking 1u to win ____

Gm ... 2 ... risking 2u to win ____

Gm ... 3 ... risking 2u-4u depending on variables to win ___

Gm ... 4 ... if needed, continue forth with arbitraded risk amount

Reason with the flexibility is because most series are underdogs so it helps to fall back and be conservative going deep while it's only icing on the cake the deeper they go in net profits won thanks to the olde adage of dogs winning 44% of the time 

Nyy series is still open, lost tonight. Surely more play will come tomorrow. Sometimes it all depends how the numbers and that gut feeling pan out. Some sets, I had up to 8 series going, the worst was 1, kept it conservative and stuck to the rules then. 

Bal series was suppose to be a no play because they were on a 3 gm losing streak and Was was at least either on a 3 gm win streak or 7-3 in their last 10, eithernor, I forget. Being good on the road didn't help but Bal countered that with a better home record. I usually don't go too deep into stats and trends for that can get crazy. I mainly chose bet on them for the series was because they were home to a twin city rival mainly utilizing the value of intangibles. 

Help yourself to any changes or rule breaking but you are on your own. Following all of these rules limits the number of plays but they seemed to be the most solid to win at least a game in.

Now with Houston, actually Pit was the play due to being  the lower ranked rpi team but I chose to flip the play because their respective rpi ratings were a few points apart and compared to the moneylines...... I saw greater value in running with Hou as the dog because actually one of my series losses was sticking to the rules but the dog in the series was a fav all 3 games having me lose 13 units alone instead of the projected 7 units per loss. 

My last series loss was a few weeks back on Laa which is why I'm done with them. They fit all the rules, I lost game one, doubled up and lost game two...... cleared out the rest of my series for some nice profit so was thankful to the betting God's and cut my losses with Laa losing 3 units and moved on. Irony is..... they lost that 3rd game getting swept saving me even more losses. Feel free to bail on a series but don't cry if that next game wins and you're on the sidelines. That sort of just happened to me - I bet half of what I should on a Phi at home to the Dodgers just recently on the 3rd gm risking getting swept gauging the risk vs the payout. They won, I could have won more but I could have lost more so it pays to play it conservative with +money dogs. 

Any day you don't lose money is a good day. Live for another bet - tortoise and the hare.......

2-0 ... +2.3u

1 set still open and 2 more I'm rolling with today

Nyy ..... gm2 ... +125 ... risking 2u to win 2.5u 

Nym .... gm1 ... +155 ... risking 1u to win 1.5u

Phi ...... gm1 ... +148 ... risking 1u to win 1.4u

I round down with decimals and such to keep it humble

The lines I use are from sportsbookspy at pregame.com

Great tool for me at least conveying an average of the top 6 sportsbooks online in conjuction with where the money is going and where the public is. 

The breakdown:

Nym is suppose to be a no play because Stl is 7-3 in their last 10 games so this is on me if they get swept. But all in all, my gut tells me that through the stats and all Stl and Nym are just about even with in this match up and so let's dance..... 

What do I got to lose? 7 units max on the series.... digestible 

Only risk what you are willing to lose

Now the Sf/Lad series is suppose to be a play but they both got the same rpi ranking as per ESPN (which happens). So I looked a bit further into it and felt that it was best to layoff this series as a whole kotntaking either side due to some stats and projected money lines

Mia would of been another play breaking some rules but after stepping back to gauge that match up as a whole..... I felt it's best to stay on the sidelines for Kc seems like a freightrain right now winning 8 in a row and 9-1 in their last 10 games though they suck on the road, would you be willing to bet and chase against that? I won't but its cool if Mia wins at least one game for they seem like similar teams intangible wise. I'll just wait for a better opportunity 

That's it for this set of series

Next round comes Thur and Fri

Touch base later on today's results

Deal with it and apply MM accordingly - that's MLB for ya

Ending the night with

4-0 ... +5.2u

And one series open

I don't count units won or loss in the overall tally until the series is closed out. Otherwise that would be like buying a stock and price A and counting your chickens before they hatch having the stock being at price B but that's not how it works in the real world which is why wagering accordingly with proper MM in the BR is always keen (as in here starting with 100u). But I totally understand how others here and around the way plug in the up to date unit count for that's how my sportsbooks read it. I'm trying just to keep things simple on paper. I'm open to changing that if that makes things more accurate daily based upon the consensus 

Be back later on for my Phitens line 

On this round so far only today we start with one series, the rest will be tomorrow pending on what happens today

We got

Cleveland ... Gm1... +147 

At Tex which is a system play. Tex has a good home record and is one of the best teams but I think it's still cool being that Clev is up there too and on the road they are ok enough in my eyes to squeak out at least one win in the series in what would be lining up some quality valuations ML wise. 

Hmm.... possible playoff matchup? 

This late into the season, no matter which sport, good teams size each other up and play up to one another as the hate begins. Dogs get value towards the end with inflated fav lines in general. 

Oh..... - lol.....

One of my books I just noticed an option to bet little league baseball

That gets NFL Monday "C'mon.... man......."

Is that what we're doing now? Betting on 12 yr olds?

Sheesh..... 

Onto gm2 tomorrow and more 

BOL to all doing their thing out there 

Main reason is I want to focus on the plays I'm already invested in just in case some of these series go deep. 

That Tor play looks good but not good enough to blow another 7-10 units possibly if they don't win by 2 at any point but they could easily against Little Big League there.

Cle ... gm2 ... -141 .... W ... +1u -1u (gm1) = 0

Phi ... gm1 ... +150 ... L .... -1u

Mil ... gm1 ... +108 ... L .... -1u

Nyy ... gm1 ... -117 ....W ...+1u

Kc .... gm1 ... +150 ... W ...+1.5u

Tb .... gm1 ... +128 ... L ... -1u

Chw . gm1 ... -126 .... L ... -1.2

Cle takes us to 6-0 but no gain in units so that's still at +6.2u

YTD

8-0 ... +8.7u

With 4 series still open 

Mil ... gm2 ... +138 ... risking 2u to win 2.76u

Phi ... gm2 ... +195 ... risking 2u to win 3.90u

Tb .... gm2 ... +175 ... risking 2u to win 3.50u

Sea .. gm2 ... +137 ... risking 2u to win 2.74u

That Chw series for which I already lost -1.2u on I'm switching and now going with Sea. Set aside from the pitching and injuries this where Vegas messes with us because I don't know why yesterday's and today's lines are what they are

Chw is the lower rated rpi team in the matchup but yet for the 2nd gm now is even a greater favorite. I don't like this and this is how I lost 13 units on a series strictly following the rules. I broke them once or twice before flip-flopping and it paid off but it easily could back fire. 

My reasoning mainly is to hedge my risk via the juice invested vs the payout because I don't see how Chw can be this favored in the series when they should be a small dog or a small fav. So here's my set to finish up on this series 

On the night

Lol.... "pain don't hurt" - Roadhouse

Seeing where I went wrong so far was

Playing Mil when I shouldn't have discounted some key doubts

Switching to Sea

And cold feet with Cleveland

Like Pete Carroll...... one can so easily outsmart them self

The loss of current and potential units can add up but we keep it moving

Onto Sunday......

Adjustments will be made for tomorrow and the long run 

You win when you lose

How'd that work our for Glen Sather when he made the young kids of the Edmonton Oilers stay out on the bench and watch the 84' Islanders win their 4th cup in a row beating them and skating around the rink with it and all

Let it burn.....

I knew were I went wrong and so won't make those bad decisions again leading to that earing feeling I got filling out this card so at least it doesn't hurt that bad. 

Case in point:

I forced Mil when I should of never played on them mainly due to then being in the bottom 3rd of the league......... for a reason too

Trying to be cute on Chw/Sea series. As I warned, doesn't always work but I wanted to keep it real like JPP on the 4th of July

And not risking more on Clev to attain that extra unit instead of what I only lost

And back to Chw...... I wasn't too big on that series and yet Nyy was a small favor too the first game. As I lost before on a dog in the series being favored, the rule should say now just don't bet in a dog that favored - but one who is successful will read between the lines of each match up so as in this case...... I felt safer taking Nyy then Chw in this round but the system said take Chw. Nex time I won't force that bet if similar parameters indicate so

This round:

2-2 tonight closing out things ... = 0.0

Overall

5-2 ... -8.2u

Could have been

6-0 ... +6u at least

I could have lost more strictly following MM rules but good thing I  took more gambles and followed some investing tactics cutting my losses while staying committed to the trades - time is relative long story short unless you guys are down for some space time continuum philosophical stuff - lol.... MM can either be real simple or complex. 

The key is stepping back to see the forest as a whole..... not just the trees individually

YTD

11-2 ... -2u

Be back later on tonight for those other records over the past month or so before posting here. 

Read carefully on my MM = my YTD unit total. It's all there or feel free to ask as I can then walk you through it. 

Sidebar:

It's gonna be fun winning those 12 units lost from yesterday back on top of other series - hehehehe..... 

But its a new week and upon us - a new month

I don't have time to explain why I chose these plays at these units but later tonight I will be back to explain and to also follow up on those darn tally's from before these posts were up

Mia ... -161 ... (to win)1u

Col ... +120 ... risking 1.5u

Bal ... +130 ... risking 1.5u

Cle ... -1.5/-105 ... risking 1u

Chw .. +165 ... risking 1.5u

Sea ... +135 ... risking 1u

Kc ..... +118 ... risking 1.5u

Long story short for now, I increased some of the units wagered in stronger matchups I feel to help attain some extra units back I lost in that last round. Lol.... yeah I know..... how moral. But the goal is through a modified exponential approach to MM..... one can see how fun financial engineering can be

Moving on....... 

In looking into when these plays have been documented, they go back to July 1 when I started laying on them. Now I can copy and past 10-20 pages being that I'm not good with computers to put that info into a spread sheet or so. Unless somebody out there wants to, I will write them down and post the plays up manually. If anyone thinks I'm could be lying, triple dog dare me and ask for certain dates about what I bet when on who if one were not to believe me. I can easily copy and paste bet tickets to back it up Now.... this is a lot of work to do so I apologize in the delay in putting this together. Life is in the way and all, sucks being an adult - lol..... This should be another day or two to post up

Mia ... -161

Hard decision on who to take in this series, both evenly matched up and only .02 points off in rpi so I figure because Mia is favored now, get that out of the way and seek a win on a better line if they lose today trying out a more conservative way of kicking off a series with fav and losing

Actually in messed up in posting Mia

I risked 1u to win .62u (to hedge against losing gm1)

L = -1u as documented on the books if anyone needs to see

Col ... +120 

System play here which I like the match up and have a good feeling it will pay off eventually so got that settled with

W = +1.8u

Bal ... +130 

System play and another quality match up to win at least one. I think this is the set here I broke a rule on for Tor was I think 7-3 in their last 10 before tonight. Bal is good at home and Tor is basically 500 on the road so I see some value here still

L = -1.5u

Cle ... -1.5/-105 

Yeah... - lol... this is a variance the old bad team vs good team runline system. Nothing special, just having some fun here when I see the potential to nab a quick unit here or there from these matchups 

L = -1u

(I noticed in yrs past, over inflated lines on the favs helped nicely on the strike rate win possibilities for those +1.5/dogs that are more even then risking fair to heavy juice on 'em. I will watch this over the week or two and see how it goes posting up here. Long story short why this happens, that's baseball for ya - a lot of things don't make sense)

Chw .. +165 

System play that I like for some reason having the feeling Det is overrated usuallly for how Vegas segs thines up whem they arn't good no more so that I'm betting that will pay off

L = -1.5u

Sea ... +135

System play I'm not too big on being that Tex is top dog in their respect and wins 2/3's of their games at home so that is why I layed less here just in case they get swept

L = -1u

Kc ..... +118 

System play I liked with great value too in this matchup. Not so with the juice but with the chance of a win and a win we got

W = +1.1u

Tonight's results

2-5