Posted:
#1
This system is courtesy of ECC over in the rx forum
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nhl under dogs system
Posted:
#2
Last year I finally came up with a system that worked. I did it on my own so it's not posted anywhere but I took the system into NHL as it has the same concept as this MLB RL system. You can find my NHL Puck Line system posted here https://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=984316 If you followed that this year at $100 a unit as you can see the profit is at $4,865 right now. And that is in Hockey...tough to do. Only difference in MLB is a roster has a rotation of pitchers where NHL uses 1 or 2 goalies....Regardless the concept is the same.
How it works: Well some of you will shy away from it as this IS a chase system. A 4 game MAX chase as after 4 games the Units risked is too high. Here's the concept. Using OVERALL standings we pick the bottom 3 teams to fade. The goal is to bet against a crap teams so you'll be wagering their opponent's RUN LINE -1.5 (99% of the time this will be +$$) If the team we are FADING is the Favorite then you play their opponent's MONEY LINE instead of RUN LINE. This change to ML is made because we are only looking for +$$ payouts! So the Unit scale is as follow;
GAME 1 = 1 UNIT (a loss is only -100)
GAME 2 = 2 UNITS (loss -200 = 300 total)
GAME 3 = 3 UNITS (loss -300 + 300 = 600 total for the chase)
GAME 4 = 6 UNITS (loss starts chase over and system sustains a loss, a win here at even +105 range is +630)
We start this after 2 full weeks of games so the teams have time to squeak out their wins and losses they usually don't get except in the first week of the season and usually the last week of the season due to player changes. So the system starts 2 weeks into the season and will end somewhere around the time where teams bench players or have a lot of call ups playing. Last year I only did the first half of the season and was up more money than I ever was playing MLB wagers...It's beyond me why I didn't continue to play this but I got caught up in other crap at work and home etc etc. So will be tracking this here this year. I have not backtested this besides the first half of last year on my own and if you want to count the concept of the system in NHL which is proven to be profitable.
So if you wish to follow, Enjoy and GL
If you wish to fade, GL
If you wish to watch and or wait....thats fine too. I do suggest to start on GAME 1 of chases and not immediately into a 6 Unit play. But no one is stopping you from doing so. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong I will be doing a lot of posts from my phone.
Either way. GOOD LUCK & see you soon.
ECC
How it works: Well some of you will shy away from it as this IS a chase system. A 4 game MAX chase as after 4 games the Units risked is too high. Here's the concept. Using OVERALL standings we pick the bottom 3 teams to fade. The goal is to bet against a crap teams so you'll be wagering their opponent's RUN LINE -1.5 (99% of the time this will be +$$) If the team we are FADING is the Favorite then you play their opponent's MONEY LINE instead of RUN LINE. This change to ML is made because we are only looking for +$$ payouts! So the Unit scale is as follow;
GAME 1 = 1 UNIT (a loss is only -100)
GAME 2 = 2 UNITS (loss -200 = 300 total)
GAME 3 = 3 UNITS (loss -300 + 300 = 600 total for the chase)
GAME 4 = 6 UNITS (loss starts chase over and system sustains a loss, a win here at even +105 range is +630)
We start this after 2 full weeks of games so the teams have time to squeak out their wins and losses they usually don't get except in the first week of the season and usually the last week of the season due to player changes. So the system starts 2 weeks into the season and will end somewhere around the time where teams bench players or have a lot of call ups playing. Last year I only did the first half of the season and was up more money than I ever was playing MLB wagers...It's beyond me why I didn't continue to play this but I got caught up in other crap at work and home etc etc. So will be tracking this here this year. I have not backtested this besides the first half of last year on my own and if you want to count the concept of the system in NHL which is proven to be profitable.
So if you wish to follow, Enjoy and GL
If you wish to fade, GL
If you wish to watch and or wait....thats fine too. I do suggest to start on GAME 1 of chases and not immediately into a 6 Unit play. But no one is stopping you from doing so. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong I will be doing a lot of posts from my phone.
Either way. GOOD LUCK & see you soon.
ECC
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Posted:
#10
Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:
this sounds like a good plan. my question is, once the first 2 weeks are up, how often do you change teams to fade? is it just as the standings change (potentially daily)? so if we're in the middle of a chase and the standings change, we would finish that chase and add the new team?
this sounds like a good plan. my question is, once the first 2 weeks are up, how often do you change teams to fade? is it just as the standings change (potentially daily)? so if we're in the middle of a chase and the standings change, we would finish that chase and add the new team?
finish the chase and add a new team,
the only time he didn't play if when starting a chase one bottom team is playing another bottem team.
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Posted:
#18
Quote Originally Posted by kevnb:
I show Edmonton and Buffalo as the first fades on the 22nd unless Edmonton wins on the 20th, then it's just Buffalo.
I have Edmonton, Buffalo, Carolina and Colorado as bottom 3 (there's a tie) and I'm using points, not records to track this.
I show Edmonton and Buffalo as the first fades on the 22nd unless Edmonton wins on the 20th, then it's just Buffalo.
I have Edmonton, Buffalo, Carolina and Colorado as bottom 3 (there's a tie) and I'm using points, not records to track this.
Colorado has 3 points, Winnipeg only 2.
I show Edmonton (1 point), Wpg, Carolina and Buffalo (2 points each) as the bottom 4. If you need to remove one team from that it should be Carolina as they have only played 4 games while the other 2 point teams have player 5 and 6.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
that sounds good
Colorado has 3 points, Winnipeg only 2.
I show Edmonton (1 point), Wpg, Carolina and Buffalo (2 points each) as the bottom 4. If you need to remove one team from that it should be Carolina as they have only played 4 games while the other 2 point teams have player 5 and 6.
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