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NHL Logical Chase 2015

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Posted: #26
Thought for sure that was a goal, but the call on the ice had to stand thanks to the sticks in the way. Sucks.

Rough night. Calgary continues their good play and took it to San Jose.

Game 1: 4-3
Game2: 0-1
Game 3: 0-0
Total: 4-0 **San Jose, Chicago, & Phi road fade pending
 
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Posted: #27
Hope to turn things around tomorrow.  I'm playing:

MONTREAL - The Canadians (7-3 L10, 18-9 H), open a home stand vs. Philadelphia (6-4 L10, 8-19 A), Edmonton (5-5 L10, 6-21 A), and Toronto (1-9 L10, 7-20 A).  I'm betting Montreal wins one of these.  I'm also playing double on game 1 since it's game 2 of the Phily fade.

NY ISLANDERS - The Islanders (5-5 L10, 17-6 H), open a home stand vs. Edmonton (5-5 L10, 6-21 A), Toronto (1-9 L10, 7-20 A), and Columbus (5-5 L10, 12-13 A).  I think the Islanders get one of these. 

Hope to get back on track! 

 
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Posted: #28
Yeah been a rough couple of days after the good start. Just reinforces the need to have a sustainable starting unit amount to cover all the juice and the pending plays that can stay open for up to a week at times.

Got a good feeling about tomorrow.

The turn around begins..
 
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Posted: #29
As for the goal/no goal in Chicago…. there was a friggin bees d!ck in that one.. unlucky for it to be called a no goal on the ice. Hockey Gods were not smiling on us today..
 
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Posted: #30
That right goodsy, system players gotta ride the systems... Even if it means playing against your own teams.
I didn't see the game as I was working. Sometimes the puck goes with our bets , sometimes against! That's gambling for ya!
 
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Posted: #31
Should also note the the canadiens are a play in jenjays icy road as a B play, as well as in danrules system as an A play.
Also the islanders are an A play for dan's system too.
 
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Posted: #32
Man did we have to sweat out the Islanders and Habs games..

NYI with a late'ish 3rd period winning goal... Habs level their game late'ish and then score winner in OT..

Phew..
 
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Posted: #33

Great night all the way around. Let's keep it rolling.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #34
Sweating it out indeed!!! Phew!

Game 1: 6-3
Game2: 1-1
Game 3: 0-0
Total: 7-0 **SJ & Chicago home plays pending
 
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Posted: #35
Any thoughts on San Jose tomorrow? Definitely not going all in. Thinking of spreading out those losses into future plays or just betting to win the game 1 & 2 losses back. Nervous.
 
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Posted: #36
Yeah I have lost confidence on this SJS chase. 

Though I use labby style for my MM so if it loses it won't hurt as much as martingale.

I do feel though Sharks are a fair chance of a win here... WAS are playing their first game after travelling from coast to coast. So could be some rust with time difference. Caps also played poorly last game mustering only 14 shots.

Not sure but maybe Caps were holding back for this current road trip... can understand as they play Sharks, Kings, Ducks and Penguins...

Either way I will play this SJS chase through for the final C game. If it comes off I will be happy, if it doesn't come off then I will need to money manage the loss accordingly.... and be ticked off.

Just noticed this:
  • WAS are 1-9 in the last 10 meetings in San Jose.
  • WAS are 3-20-1 in the last 24 meetings.
 
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Posted: #37
Going through my recent chases... haven't had an easy win since the hapless Laffs defeated the even more hapless Oilers 5-1 the other day.

Would like a couple of easy wins to ease the nerves.. especially after a day like today. 

 
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Posted: #38
Sharks scare me. Not just now bit all the time. I find them hard to read.
 
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Posted: #39
Also I don't feel that the caps played too poorly, Philadelphia have a nack of bringing teams down, from what I saw of the game that's what happened. I've actually decided not to follow this anymore as most of the plays have been plays in dans system or jenjays icy road - of which caps are game 1 so I'll be on them.
Good luck fellas
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Sharks scare me. Not just now bit all the time. I find them hard to read.

Sharks are frustrating... but all the info is there and available, just need to fade them when they play lesser teams and play them when they play better teams. 

From recall the last 2 seasons they have played this way... they like to play to their opposition level. Seem to lift for the bigger teams.
 
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Posted: #41
Good idea, Goodsy! I am in on SJ (game 3) & Chicago (game 2) tonight. Buckle up! I'm personally just playing SJ to win back game 2 losses. Rolling the game 1 loss into a future play.
 
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Posted: #42
Yikes (Chicago).  
 
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Posted: #43
Bloody Hawks... teasing us like that. Thought with the momentum gained late in 3rd period going into OT CHI would go on to win.. what a tease.

Not easy to fall back on Sharks to make something of today.

Now CHI are going to be a heavy priced favourite in the C game. Great.
 
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Posted: #44
When I play this similar type of style for MLB I do it on dogs to win a game... no juice and you get the bonus of + money so it's easier on the BR. Wonder if that might be the better way to go for NHL too ?

I guess with MLB it's easier in a way as you play 3 game series etc..

I suppose with NHL you would be mostly playing on the away team.. and fading the home team.

Dunno just ramblings..
 
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Posted: #45
Good points, Goodsy.  I don't to eat away too much of my SB winnings, but I want to change it up to salvage things with this. 

Wanting feedback on the following potential plays starting tomorrow:

Colorado home fade/play (4-6 L10, 13-13 H, Lost 3):
  • vs. NYR (6-4 L10, 14-10 A, W1)
  • vs. Dal (5-5 L10, 14-12 A, W2)
  • vs. Ari (4-6 L10, 11-18 A, L1)
Thinking of a FADE on the Avs.  Thoughts?

Los Angeles home fade/play (3-7 L10, 16-12 H, W2)
  • vs. Cal (7-3 L10, 15-11 A, W1)
  • vs. Was (4-6 L10, 13-14 A, L1)
  • vs. TB (6-4 L10, 12-16 A, L1)
Not sure where to go here, I think both ways win.  Thoughts?

Ottawa home fade/play (4-6 L10, 11-13 H, W1)
  • vs. Pit (5-5 L10, 13-12 A, W1)
  • vs. Edm (5-5 L10, 6-22 A, L1)
  • vs. Car (6-4 L10, 8-21 A, W2)
I think I like the fade here, thoughts?

 
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Posted: #46
Ouch.  That was brutal.  Glad I didn't play it fully, but still…

Going to buckle down and either dig a huge hole or get a lot of this back tomorrow.  Sucks.  

Game 1: 6-3
Game2: 1-2
Game 3: 0-1 (SJ)
Total: 7-1  *Chicago g3 home play pending
 
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Posted: #47
Yep... 2 OT losses today. So Sharks finish their home stand win less.

It was a little more hurtful for me as I started a fade on CAPS road trip..I actually considered a play on CAPS road trip so I would have been guaranteed 1 chase cleared. Never mind.. we move on.

I think there is value and easier chases for the dogs. Won't completely ignore the home teams that are expected to win... I just don't think there is any value chasing teams like Hawks etc at home, unless they are playing 3 quality teams.




 
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Posted: #48
Personally I am going to slow it down a little and focus on clearing the remaining series I have open… will just open max 1 chase a day for the time being.

Which one for me today not sure yet.. one where I don't have to absorb so much juice for ideally min 2 of the games if it goes the distance.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

Ouch.  That was brutal.  Glad I didn't play it fully, but still…

Going to buckle down and either dig a huge hole or get a lot of this back tomorrow.  Sucks.  

Game 1: 6-3
Game2: 1-2
Game 3: 0-1 (SJ)
Total: 7-1  *Chicago g3 home play pending

Keep in mind there are still plenty of series remaining until the end of the season. Don't want to regret anything leading into MLB.. got 6 months of good profit to make shortly.

It can be a painful and frustrating game sports investing at times.. let's ride it out and be patient.. hope to be fully recovered by end of Feb personally. 

That Sharks home stand loss was annoying.. I'm looking back it and see how I could have avoided it as a play so I avoid similar mistakes moving forward.

At a quick glance both CAL and WAS are in the top 10 for away teams. Perhaps if there is more than 1 team in top 10 then don't play on, rather fade or avoid ? Just a quick glance over.. plus SJS had lost 2 of last 3 games coming into the home stand with 1 of those losses being against EDM, which is typical of their style.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Also in regards to Chicago game 3, stumbled upon this stat -
NHL teams are 624-617 (50.3%) following b2b OT games from 2006 onwards.
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