This is why I say it's a mix of strategy and handicapping because expertcapper is making a decision that does not follow the guidelines of his system. He'll have to make another decision if Philly loses.
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Prof8t - Only time will tell.
This is why I say it's a mix of strategy and handicapping because expertcapper is making a decision that does not follow the guidelines of his system. He'll have to make another decision if Philly loses.
With this new variation system that is 45-0 you have to believe in it. Is it due for a loss? Maybe yes, maybe no!! Since expertcapper is straying away with his Philly pick, and if Philly loses, the loss is on him and the system moves to 46-0....
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With this new variation system that is 45-0 you have to believe in it. Is it due for a loss? Maybe yes, maybe no!! Since expertcapper is straying away with his Philly pick, and if Philly loses, the loss is on him and the system moves to 46-0....
With this new variation system that is 45-0 you have to believe in it. Is it due for a loss? Maybe yes, maybe no!! Since expertcapper is straying away with his Philly pick, and if Philly loses, the loss is on him and the system moves to 46-0....
Correct.
To answer your question kbit : It depends on who you want to listen. The system or expertcapper's pick. System says to chase the home victory for teams not in the bottom 8 home teams. So the play is still Carolina at home , but he has chosen to fade them since they have lost two consecutive games and thinks Philly is gonna win.
This game is hard to cap ( most books have Carolina barely favored but that's mostly because of the home factor ).
System says Carolina but expertcapper says Philly.
The play would be to lay off this game if you just started IMHO but as Srtzee points out, system still has a chance to get to 46 - 0 if Carolina comes through.
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Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:
With this new variation system that is 45-0 you have to believe in it. Is it due for a loss? Maybe yes, maybe no!! Since expertcapper is straying away with his Philly pick, and if Philly loses, the loss is on him and the system moves to 46-0....
Correct.
To answer your question kbit : It depends on who you want to listen. The system or expertcapper's pick. System says to chase the home victory for teams not in the bottom 8 home teams. So the play is still Carolina at home , but he has chosen to fade them since they have lost two consecutive games and thinks Philly is gonna win.
This game is hard to cap ( most books have Carolina barely favored but that's mostly because of the home factor ).
System says Carolina but expertcapper says Philly.
The play would be to lay off this game if you just started IMHO but as Srtzee points out, system still has a chance to get to 46 - 0 if Carolina comes through.
But, as predicted, very close game that needed OT to decide a winner. Looks like the system might meet it's first loss tomorrow when the Caps get to play the Canes at home.
But, I got a funny feeling the Canes break out out of it against the Caps who've not done so well on the road.
This was a great example of how handicapping works well with a system strategy. Nice pick expert.
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So you were right on expert.
But, as predicted, very close game that needed OT to decide a winner. Looks like the system might meet it's first loss tomorrow when the Caps get to play the Canes at home.
But, I got a funny feeling the Canes break out out of it against the Caps who've not done so well on the road.
This was a great example of how handicapping works well with a system strategy. Nice pick expert.
yes, thanks eli but what we need to do is to concentrate on how to minimize our losses.The 3 game chase did not follow through on the 3rd game so we will have one final game on Sunday against Washington. Yes eli i think they will hit this game, Washington is 5-8 on the road but Carolina gets them the trends for this game home team is 8-3 last 11. I think we should fade any team under 500 at home, when the chase first started they were 6-6 but lost their last 2 games , so right off the bat we should of known, we need to take into acccount also if they have lost there last 2 games before the chase began.we also need to take into consideration if the #1 goalie is hurt .Play Carolina and Colorado
December 7 Washington Carolina no line yet
Vancouver Colorado -125 Even though I capped Phil i still am wanting to see what happens in Carolinas game maybe the same thing will come up on another team and we could save our losses.So is it 46-0 or we still trying to get that 46 th win
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yes, thanks eli but what we need to do is to concentrate on how to minimize our losses.The 3 game chase did not follow through on the 3rd game so we will have one final game on Sunday against Washington. Yes eli i think they will hit this game, Washington is 5-8 on the road but Carolina gets them the trends for this game home team is 8-3 last 11. I think we should fade any team under 500 at home, when the chase first started they were 6-6 but lost their last 2 games , so right off the bat we should of known, we need to take into acccount also if they have lost there last 2 games before the chase began.we also need to take into consideration if the #1 goalie is hurt .Play Carolina and Colorado
December 7 Washington Carolina no line yet
Vancouver Colorado -125 Even though I capped Phil i still am wanting to see what happens in Carolinas game maybe the same thing will come up on another team and we could save our losses.So is it 46-0 or we still trying to get that 46 th win
I agree. All ideas you brought up will be excellent when trying to minimize the losses. Even if Carolina does not come through, I'm sure that 45 wins is well enough to still show a profit when taking into account a series loss.
But, I'm still not giving up with Carolina. Washington is coming off a win against Toronto that seemed to be very demanding. Time to get back to bad habits tomorrow for them on the road.
BOL with whatever you choose and thanks for the work you're putting into this .
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I agree. All ideas you brought up will be excellent when trying to minimize the losses. Even if Carolina does not come through, I'm sure that 45 wins is well enough to still show a profit when taking into account a series loss.
But, I'm still not giving up with Carolina. Washington is coming off a win against Toronto that seemed to be very demanding. Time to get back to bad habits tomorrow for them on the road.
BOL with whatever you choose and thanks for the work you're putting into this .
One question I have, I just stumbled across this thread today and looks very interesting. I'm currently doing a NBA chase system that is very similar to this and is 16-0 for the season so far this year. Just curious on the series games if you have a break down of how the 45 wins played out such as how many of the 45 games won the first game of the series? How many of the 45 was a winner in the 2nd game? And how many of the 45 did it take 3 games etc. Just trying to figure out my money management want to make sure I have enough cash flow to accomodate both this system and the nba because in a chase system it can require quite a bit of risk juice.
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One question I have, I just stumbled across this thread today and looks very interesting. I'm currently doing a NBA chase system that is very similar to this and is 16-0 for the season so far this year. Just curious on the series games if you have a break down of how the 45 wins played out such as how many of the 45 games won the first game of the series? How many of the 45 was a winner in the 2nd game? And how many of the 45 did it take 3 games etc. Just trying to figure out my money management want to make sure I have enough cash flow to accomodate both this system and the nba because in a chase system it can require quite a bit of risk juice.
Sorry I do not have that information available, it would take a long time to do 24themoney13. Your probably doing the east coast west coast thing huh? Eli, you have been a great deal of help also answering everyones questions and I respect that.
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Sorry I do not have that information available, it would take a long time to do 24themoney13. Your probably doing the east coast west coast thing huh? Eli, you have been a great deal of help also answering everyones questions and I respect that.
Guys I see a correlation in Carolina.Yesterday the line was the same at -110 and they lost. Now I have seen this happen several times in games and I almost sure that CAROLINA WILL WIN TODAY mark my words. I am not gloating none whatsoever I have seen this in many time in sports when they comeback the next day with the same spread. We will see if I am right again. Example Lakers - 8 1/2 at Indiana the result they lost next day they were -81/2 at Philadephia result they won and covered. So I think Carolina wins to day at 4:00 central time and another sign to watch for the line to go up and thats happening also now its -115
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Guys I see a correlation in Carolina.Yesterday the line was the same at -110 and they lost. Now I have seen this happen several times in games and I almost sure that CAROLINA WILL WIN TODAY mark my words. I am not gloating none whatsoever I have seen this in many time in sports when they comeback the next day with the same spread. We will see if I am right again. Example Lakers - 8 1/2 at Indiana the result they lost next day they were -81/2 at Philadephia result they won and covered. So I think Carolina wins to day at 4:00 central time and another sign to watch for the line to go up and thats happening also now its -115
So I take it this is the third bet?? I just came across the post. I made my bet with colorado but haven't done anything yet on the Carolina game. Have other chases in your system gone to the third bet or does it usually hit after 2 games?
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So I take it this is the third bet?? I just came across the post. I made my bet with colorado but haven't done anything yet on the Carolina game. Have other chases in your system gone to the third bet or does it usually hit after 2 games?
24themoney13 - This is actually the 4th and final bet on Carolina as we chase the home victory. I believe this is one of the rare cases of a chase having gone the full distance (for 4 games) but this can only be verified by looking at past results.
If you take a look at the Hurricane's schedule, they have lost to to Anaheim, Pittsburgh, and Philly yesterday night. Now, all losses need to be recuperated on this afternoon's game.
If you haven't touched Carolina at all, this would be a good spot to try to win a unit by betting on the Canes. Not only is the system predicting a win here , Expertcapper also points out how the Canes are in a good spot to win against the Caps. If you lose this bet, you can always try to win this loss in another series later on.
BOL with whatever you choose to do .
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24themoney13 - This is actually the 4th and final bet on Carolina as we chase the home victory. I believe this is one of the rare cases of a chase having gone the full distance (for 4 games) but this can only be verified by looking at past results.
If you take a look at the Hurricane's schedule, they have lost to to Anaheim, Pittsburgh, and Philly yesterday night. Now, all losses need to be recuperated on this afternoon's game.
If you haven't touched Carolina at all, this would be a good spot to try to win a unit by betting on the Canes. Not only is the system predicting a win here , Expertcapper also points out how the Canes are in a good spot to win against the Caps. If you lose this bet, you can always try to win this loss in another series later on.
Guys I see a correlation in Carolina.Yesterday the line was the same at -110 and they lost. Now I have seen this happen several times in games and I almost sure that CAROLINA WILL WIN TODAY mark my words. I am not gloating none whatsoever I have seen this in many time in sports when they comeback the next day with the same spread. We will see if I am right again. Example Lakers - 8 1/2 at Indiana the result they lost next day they were -81/2 at Philadephia result they won and covered. So I think Carolina wins to day at 4:00 central time and another sign to watch for the line to go up and thats happening also now its -115
Wow, you could not of called it better. Really solid handicapping work Expert. And, it makes it even better to know that the system is still perfect. Here's to many more wins .
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Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:
Guys I see a correlation in Carolina.Yesterday the line was the same at -110 and they lost. Now I have seen this happen several times in games and I almost sure that CAROLINA WILL WIN TODAY mark my words. I am not gloating none whatsoever I have seen this in many time in sports when they comeback the next day with the same spread. We will see if I am right again. Example Lakers - 8 1/2 at Indiana the result they lost next day they were -81/2 at Philadephia result they won and covered. So I think Carolina wins to day at 4:00 central time and another sign to watch for the line to go up and thats happening also now its -115
Wow, you could not of called it better. Really solid handicapping work Expert. And, it makes it even better to know that the system is still perfect. Here's to many more wins .
Wow I'm impressed with Carolina's win. I must admit I didn't lay anything on this one but now see I missed out and will follow this system from here on out. It would seem that as they loose and you make bets 3 and 4 you would want to increase the bet to cover losses but also increase to put more in your pocket. Do you guys just double up or do you double up plus 20% or so to get a larger bank roll with the eventual win.
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Wow I'm impressed with Carolina's win. I must admit I didn't lay anything on this one but now see I missed out and will follow this system from here on out. It would seem that as they loose and you make bets 3 and 4 you would want to increase the bet to cover losses but also increase to put more in your pocket. Do you guys just double up or do you double up plus 20% or so to get a larger bank roll with the eventual win.
24 - It's really a personal choice when it comes to money management strategy.
I would suggest simply doubling up every time without increasing so that by the end of the chase, you've won the unit you were trying to win since game 1. Nothing more.
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24 - It's really a personal choice when it comes to money management strategy.
I would suggest simply doubling up every time without increasing so that by the end of the chase, you've won the unit you were trying to win since game 1. Nothing more.
The chase system is 47-0 amazing results so far with Carolina and Colorado both winning to day, Still chasing Dallas on the 5th of December. No games on December 8th so do your Christmas shopping. Philadelphia Flyers are at home for a chase on the 9th of December.
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The chase system is 47-0 amazing results so far with Carolina and Colorado both winning to day, Still chasing Dallas on the 5th of December. No games on December 8th so do your Christmas shopping. Philadelphia Flyers are at home for a chase on the 9th of December.
that colorado game was awesome too!! Wow what a nail biter.. Another awesome win wow is that 47?? Wish I had found this Thread sooner. I'd be up atleast $4700
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that colorado game was awesome too!! Wow what a nail biter.. Another awesome win wow is that 47?? Wish I had found this Thread sooner. I'd be up atleast $4700
Yeah 47, i am tweaking it a bit so we can try to minimize our losses. What i did with Colorado tonight was their last 3 games they were at home 2wins and one loss, so they are a bout 500 at home 6-5 so the teams that are about 500 i take the last 3 games they played at home to decide if to fade or play that team.In this case it was Colorado which was 2-1 at home so I played that team to win. So if they were 0-3 I would fade that team, if the particular team was about 500. Hope everyone likes the tweaks hehehe
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Yeah 47, i am tweaking it a bit so we can try to minimize our losses. What i did with Colorado tonight was their last 3 games they were at home 2wins and one loss, so they are a bout 500 at home 6-5 so the teams that are about 500 i take the last 3 games they played at home to decide if to fade or play that team.In this case it was Colorado which was 2-1 at home so I played that team to win. So if they were 0-3 I would fade that team, if the particular team was about 500. Hope everyone likes the tweaks hehehe
I like the evolution of the system. It started off by fading the bottom 8 teams of last year when it was impossible to really know who was good at home or not.
Then, when enough data is accumulated into the season, you can easily detect which home teams to fade by either their home record or their result results at home. Let's also keep in mind the effect of having the 1st goaler healthy which would have avoided a very long chase with Carolina.
But, very interesting to track so far. Keep up the good work expert, it's been enjoyable (and profitable) so far. Even if you do encounter a first series loss, 47 units are now in the bank so you can certainly take a loss if ever it happens .
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Great results so far .
I like the evolution of the system. It started off by fading the bottom 8 teams of last year when it was impossible to really know who was good at home or not.
Then, when enough data is accumulated into the season, you can easily detect which home teams to fade by either their home record or their result results at home. Let's also keep in mind the effect of having the 1st goaler healthy which would have avoided a very long chase with Carolina.
But, very interesting to track so far. Keep up the good work expert, it's been enjoyable (and profitable) so far. Even if you do encounter a first series loss, 47 units are now in the bank so you can certainly take a loss if ever it happens .
Are you guys still playing the bottom 8 to lose at home or just playing the top 16 to win? I remember reading about playing the bottom 8 to lose but that may have been on the original thread before the tweaks. Let me know.
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Are you guys still playing the bottom 8 to lose at home or just playing the top 16 to win? I remember reading about playing the bottom 8 to lose but that may have been on the original thread before the tweaks. Let me know.
Actually themoney we are playing both depending on the different variations and data that decides which way to go according to home records.. December 9,2008 NY Islanders Philadelphia -230 Rules if any team over 200 take the regulation and -0.5 goal so the line on -.0.5 is -135 so take that Are record so far in this chase system is 47 wins 0 losses so far in the NHL Season
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Actually themoney we are playing both depending on the different variations and data that decides which way to go according to home records.. December 9,2008 NY Islanders Philadelphia -230 Rules if any team over 200 take the regulation and -0.5 goal so the line on -.0.5 is -135 so take that Are record so far in this chase system is 47 wins 0 losses so far in the NHL Season
is that what it's at on 50dimes? Betus has it at 1.5 points.
24 - You might have a problem doing this using betUS cause they only offer Puck Lines an no regulation lines.
The -1.5 might be too risky for a situation like this where it involves a chase. The chances that Philly actually wins it by 2 means that they'll have to score an empty net goal at the end of the game.
If it goes to overtime, then both the PL bet and the -0.5 bet are losers which is why Expert is getting better value with the -0.5 but at least, if it is a close game won by 1 goal at the end of the 3rd period, the chase is already over at a very decent price.
Expert -
Before you get people who start to criticize the results of the system, it would be best if we pointed out that your results reflect the rules at the time the games were played and are not retro-active.
Meaning that, it's very possible that many lines lower than 200 were used to win a chase thanks to a heavy favorite and as of now, decisions are made whether or not to fade bottom 8 home teams whereas it was dependent on last year's standings before.
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Quote Originally Posted by 24themoney13:
is that what it's at on 50dimes? Betus has it at 1.5 points.
24 - You might have a problem doing this using betUS cause they only offer Puck Lines an no regulation lines.
The -1.5 might be too risky for a situation like this where it involves a chase. The chances that Philly actually wins it by 2 means that they'll have to score an empty net goal at the end of the game.
If it goes to overtime, then both the PL bet and the -0.5 bet are losers which is why Expert is getting better value with the -0.5 but at least, if it is a close game won by 1 goal at the end of the 3rd period, the chase is already over at a very decent price.
Expert -
Before you get people who start to criticize the results of the system, it would be best if we pointed out that your results reflect the rules at the time the games were played and are not retro-active.
Meaning that, it's very possible that many lines lower than 200 were used to win a chase thanks to a heavy favorite and as of now, decisions are made whether or not to fade bottom 8 home teams whereas it was dependent on last year's standings before.
Yeah Eli it gets confusing because i tweak the system a bit. I never gave it any thought that the newbies were confused.I have noticed something you have brought up in the past which could work very good in these situations play -1 , just in case it goes into overtime you still push because if you play -0.5 you still could lose in regulation.I still think our odds are better playing -0.5 just 22% of games go into overtime so look at it this way 78% don't. So we are going to continue to play if it is over -200 at -0.5 puck line i still think it is best. right now the -0.5 puck line in regulation is Phil -143 so getting on this immediately last night could also save you some money if perhaps they would lose. Thought i would include this
Biron of Philadelphiais 16-4-0 with a tie and a 1.87 lifetime GAA versus New York. The 16 wins are his most against any opponent.
New York, Mc Donald has struggled in his career against the Flyers, going 0-4-1 with a 3.56 GAA.
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Yeah Eli it gets confusing because i tweak the system a bit. I never gave it any thought that the newbies were confused.I have noticed something you have brought up in the past which could work very good in these situations play -1 , just in case it goes into overtime you still push because if you play -0.5 you still could lose in regulation.I still think our odds are better playing -0.5 just 22% of games go into overtime so look at it this way 78% don't. So we are going to continue to play if it is over -200 at -0.5 puck line i still think it is best. right now the -0.5 puck line in regulation is Phil -143 so getting on this immediately last night could also save you some money if perhaps they would lose. Thought i would include this
Biron of Philadelphiais 16-4-0 with a tie and a 1.87 lifetime GAA versus New York. The 16 wins are his most against any opponent.
New York, Mc Donald has struggled in his career against the Flyers, going 0-4-1 with a 3.56 GAA.
You called it right on by reducing the juice. Philly had no problem coming from behind to beat the Islanders in regulation. Was kinda worried when it was all tied up but no problem really by the end of the game.
Can now say you are 48-0. Amazing stuff. Fun to follow as well. Keep up the excellent work .
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Hey, great stuff once again Expert .
You called it right on by reducing the juice. Philly had no problem coming from behind to beat the Islanders in regulation. Was kinda worried when it was all tied up but no problem really by the end of the game.
Can now say you are 48-0. Amazing stuff. Fun to follow as well. Keep up the excellent work .
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Another awesome win wow is that 47?? Wish I had found this Thread sooner. I'd be up atleast $4700 
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