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NHL Home Chase 3 Games+

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Ok so far the chase system is 2-0 with Flo and NYR both winning the first game.  Currently there are 5 teams going into their 2nd game looking for a home win.  Pit and Cal are 2 of the 5 and play tonight.  Atl also starts its home series tonight....
 
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Posted: #2
Is this chase system Morrison's? If so, could you explain.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
No Putso, Morrison is a scammer.  All he does is take double down from gambling and use it on sports betting.  Bet $10 on blackjack, lose, bet $20, lose, bet $40 win, you win your $30 back and $10 profit.  Known as the martingale strategy....
 
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Posted: #4

Ok here's the list of 167 series with at least 3 home games.  I did not include the games on Oct 4 or 5 since they are overseas and can't count as a teams home game.  It's pretty simple the first one is Pit 11 4g  So Pittsburgh on the 11th of October starts a 4 game home series... They are in order by date.  If you only want to play 4 game series or more, then just look for those... I'm not sure how this will post will turn out, it's pretty long....

October

Team - Date - #Games

Pit 11 4g

Ott 11 4g

Flo 11 3g

TB 11 3g

Cal 11 3g

LA 12 4g

NYr 13 3g

Atl 14 3g

Mon 15 5g

Ana 15 3g

StL 16 7g

Nas 18 3g

Chi 19 3g

NYi 23 3g

Min 23 3g

Pho 23 3g

Buf 27 3g

LA 27 7g

NJ 29 4g

Ana 29 3g

November

Team - Date - #Games

Bos 1 3g

Van 2 6g

Chi 3 5g

SJ 4 3g

Ana 5 6g

Col 5 4g

Was 6 3g

Car 7 3g

Pit 13 3g

NYr 15 3g

NJ 15 3g

Car 16 4g

Tor 17 3g

TB 18 4g

Ott 20 3g

Min 20 5g

Buf 21 4g

Flo 24 3g

Pho 28 4g

Mon 29 7g

Car 30 4g

December

Team - Date - #Games

Det 1 4g

Min 1 4g

SJ 2 5g

Ott 3 3g

StL 5 3g

Dal 5 3g

Col 7 3g

Phi 9 4g

NJ 10 3g

Edm 11 3g

LA 11 4g

Bos 13 3g

Van 14 4g

Det 15 4g

Mon 18 3g

Atl 18 3g

Cal 19 5g

NJ 19 4g

Flo 21 3g

NYr 23 3g

Col 23 3g

Van 26 3g

Car 27 3g

StL 27 3g

Dal 27 3g

Pho 27 3g

Tor 30 4g

Ana 31 4g

January

Team - Date - #Games

Bos 1 6g

Was 1 4g

Nas 1 5g

Edm 3 5g

Det 6 3g

Cal 6 3g

Pho 6 3g

Phi 8 3g

Flo 8 3g

LA 8 4g

Van 9 5g

Ana 9 3g

Col 10 3g

Chi 11 3g

Dal 12 3g

NYi 13 5g

Min 13 3g

SJ 13 3g

Pit 14 5g

TB 15 5g

Col 16 8g

Ott 17 3g

Edm 18 6g

Flo 19 4g

Cal 21 3g

Bos 27 3g

Col 27 4g

Van 28 4g

SJ 29 3g

Mon 31 3g

February

Team - Date - #Games

Det 2 3g

Ott 3 3g

Pit 4 4g

Min 4 4g

StL 5 3g

Cal 5 3g

Dal 6 4g

NJ 7 5g

TB 7 6g

Col 7 3g

Nas 10 4g

Buf 11 3g

Ana 11 3g

LA 12 3g

Pho 12 4g

Flo 13 5g

Tor 14 4g

Min 14 3g

Det 15 3g

SJ 17 3g

Was 18 5g

Dal 19 6g

Edm 21 4g

Bos 24 6g

Ott 24 8g

Nas 24 5g

Cal 24 3g

NJ 26 3g

NYi 26 6g

Chi 27 3g

Van 27 3g

Atl 28 4g

March

Team - Date - #Games

Was 1 4g

TB 3 3g

Phi 5 5g

LA 5 3g

Ana 6 5g

Det 7 3g

Chi 8 4g

Mon 10 4g

Tor 10 3g

StL 10 4g

Edm 12 3g

Van 13 4g

Pit 14 8g

Pho 14 4g

Flo 14 5g

Ott 17 3g

TB 17 4g

Cal 18 3g

Car 18 3g

SJ 19 3g

Chi 20 5g

NYr 21 3g

Mon 21 5g

Nas 24 3g

StL 24 3g

Dal 24 3g

Atl 26 3g

Was 27 4g

Det 27 4g

Edm 29 6g

Bos 31 3g

Flo 31 3g

April

Team - Date - #Games

Car 2 4g

Van 5 3g

Atl 7 3g

Col 9 3g

 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
So far they system is 5-0  Ott, TB and Atl lost their 1st home games in the series and the chase is on...  Starting tonight, Montreal has a 5 game series they were 22-13 at home last year.   Anaheim starts a 3 game series and were 28-9 at home last year..
 
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Posted: #6
I'm glad you like it :)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Yes, so far so good.  I started the new thread to try to keep it to this strategy only.  I will try to stay on top of it all year, hopefully.
Everybody who follows, this was Tomspeople's strategy...
 
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Posted: #8
From what I read from the system is that you only use the top 16 teams, which would definetly not include Tampa Bay
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
You can decide your strategy criteria, top 16 teams, are at least 5-5 in last 10 games, whatever you want.  I'm just posting series that are in play.  I never bet TB, I didn't bet Florida either and they won their first home game, so you never know....
 
The system is 6-0 with Montreal winning their home opener last night. Montreal still has 4 games to go at home, so I will look to get another win from them.  Atl and TB are in their 2nd home game, looking for a win tonight....  St. Louis starts a 7 game series tonight. 
 
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Posted: #10
WIth STL's win last night the system is now 7-0.  Tonight we have OTT and ANA looking for a win in their 2nd home games....
 
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Posted: #11
Looks like a nice system strzee. The only thing scares me is "juice". You know sometimes we can see -200, -250 odds. And I remember 1-2 lost in past. It was anaheim iirc?
 
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Posted: #12
With OTT and ANA both winning the system is 9-0  Tonight Atl and TB play their third and final home games and are looking for a win.  Nas starts a 3g home series tonight.
 
On a side note, I am going to continue to play StL and Mon as I see them wining at least 1 more in their current home series.
 
Also Detroit is 0-2 at home this year so far.  Tonight they play NYR which should be a good game. NYR played last night so Detroit could get thier first win here. 
 
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Posted: #13
WIth NAS and ATL getting the wins, the system is now 11-1 as TB couldn't get the win in the shootout.  Chi starts a 3 game home series Sunday night...CHI might be tired as they just lost in a shootout Saturday night, then travel back to Chicago for Sundays game vs. Vancouver....
 
If you followed me Det, Mon and StL all won...
 
Tomspeople or anyone else, has anybody done research to see the records of teams that play games back to back?   Maybe they lose 55% of the time, but it might be 70% when they have to travel...  Might be something to look into...
 
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Posted: #14
I'll check it SRT, shouldn't take too long.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Cool Tomspeople, if not I can proably get to it during the week.  I'm thinking 6 categories for back to back
 
Travel game (whether leaving home or already on the road) win/lose
 
Travel game back to home  win/lose
 
Home games back to back win/lose
 
I think that should cover it, or can you think of something better?
 
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Posted: #16
That should cover it yeah, and if you want to cover it that would be cool :)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
OK, no problem...  Now what to do when you have a loss, you can either
 
1) Accept the loss and move on
2) Keep on chasing (in this case TB) home games till they win
3) Lower the unit you are chasing to win ex. say you were looking to win $20 and you are already down $60, so next TB home game instead of betting to win $80, bet to win $70 or even $65.  Sure you will only win $5 or $10 but if the chase goes on you will be risking less
4) Take your losses say $60 and just divide them over the next 10 series of bets.  So instead of betting to win $20 increase you unit size to $26
 
Any other ideas???
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by SawyerThePunter:

Looks like a nice system strzee. The only thing scares me is "juice". You know sometimes we can see -200, -250 odds. And I remember 1-2 lost in past. It was anaheim iirc?

Yes Sawyer, Anaheim was one of the teams last year.  The system was 154-7  With the high juice you could just lower your unit size, say drop it from $100 to $50 whatever fits your betting style.  You wouldn't want to totally avoid the game since home favourites are winning at just under 64%  Hows Kate?

 

 
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Posted: #19
Srtzee, can you post unit profit/lost record as well?

Home chase is not profitable in NHL. Why? Because of odds! Let's say you lost a 4-game chase. Anaheim Ducks lost 3-4 straight at home last season!

Not to mention odds were extra juicy like -240 and -250.
Even with -200 odds you'll be in hole.

-200 (you lost 200)
-200 (you must place 600to recover your lost, and you lost 600)
-200 (you must place 1800)
-200 (you must place 3600)

3600+1800+600+200= -6200

a win gives you +100 units but -200 ML 4-game lost costs you -6200.

So even with a 61-1 record you'll be in lost.

Is it profitable?
 
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Posted: #20
Hehe, Kate is fine thank you :) I just want to warn you about possible dangers. But if you play with -130/-120 favs it should be ok. But I dont really know how to treat -200 chalky favs. Any opinions about that?
 
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Posted: #21
Yes that can happen and it did.  No system is 100% fool proof or the books wouldn't let you place bets.  I think that is a rare occurance when a team would be -200 or greater 4 games in a row, on a losing streak.  Maybe just the Red Wings.  It all comes down to money management.  Do you want to make your money in 1 day or across the entire season.  Because it is a chase system you should keep your units small, but again that varies for each person and depends on your bankroll.  11-1 for the first 2 weeks of the season is good.  And most people would of eliminated TB after their poor performance last year.... A team thats is -200 is -200 for a reason.  Better players, goaltending etc.  The best way to handle them would be to just decrease your unit size.  If you normaly bet $100 unit on say your favourite football game,  it has to be different for chase systems since you are giving yourself 3+ games to get the win.  I guess it's not for everybody.  My betting won't be accurate to the 11-1 record, since I stayed away from FLO and TB, but then I doubled on NYR, MTL and now STL.... I still think MTL has 1 more home win in them in this series....
 
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Posted: #22
What about Total Chase? I mean chasing under/over. It worked great for me, speciall SJ and NJ Under Chase last year..
 
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Posted: #23
Sure Sawyer that sounds good as well.  If it worked for you last season, might as well see how it does this year.  I see the overs are hitting just over 60% so far and yes less juice.  Did you just add the totals of each teams last 3 games and divide by 6?
 
So tonight Van last 3 game totals were 7,7,6  Chi last 3 game totals were 7,5,5 added up is 37 divided by 6 is 6.16 goals per game.  So tonight would be the over 5.5 for that game.  See how it works out. 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by SawyerThePunter:

Srtzee, can you post unit profit/lost record as well?

Home chase is not profitable in NHL. Why? Because of odds! Let's say you lost a 4-game chase. Anaheim Ducks lost 3-4 straight at home last season!

Not to mention odds were extra juicy like -240 and -250.
Even with -200 odds you'll be in hole.

-200 (you lost 200)
-200 (you must place 600to recover your lost, and you lost 600)
-200 (you must place 1800)
-200 (you must place 3600)

3600+1800+600+200= -6200

a win gives you +100 units but -200 ML 4-game lost costs you -6200.

So even with a 61-1 record you'll be in lost.

Is it profitable?


Why don't you just look at the thread where I introduced this system?
I said...

"Simple System, chase a team thats on a series of 3 or more games in a row at home.
 
Last Season this was 154-7 (+69.01u)
 
Also, just betting the first game of each 3 or more game home series would have went 93-61"
 
 
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Posted: #25
looks good tommy. I'll have a look, thanks ;)
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