The system looks at offense/defense, turnover, and time of possession. Week 3-13 is really easy to win...Week 14-17 is very diffcult to play because it is getting closer to playoff.
1. "Must Win" - Those who need the game, Las Vegas usually gives higher odds for "must win" teams. These teams usually win, but not cover..
NO, NE, WAS, BAL are fall in this situation.
2. "Rest" for playoff. These teams have clinched playoff and rest their players..
NYG....
Therefore, from week 14-17, my picks are not perfect.
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The system looks at offense/defense, turnover, and time of possession. Week 3-13 is really easy to win...Week 14-17 is very diffcult to play because it is getting closer to playoff.
1. "Must Win" - Those who need the game, Las Vegas usually gives higher odds for "must win" teams. These teams usually win, but not cover..
NO, NE, WAS, BAL are fall in this situation.
2. "Rest" for playoff. These teams have clinched playoff and rest their players..
NYG....
Therefore, from week 14-17, my picks are not perfect.
I've been using a system since week 8 that I got from a website. what you do is You take the last 6 scores of a team's points for and points against. Scratch off the lowest score and the highest score, so you have only 4 scores for each offense and defense. You add them all together and divide by 4 to get the average for each points for and points against.
Once you have all these numbers you can match up two teams by using this method: Add teams A's offense by team B's defense and subtract 20.5, this will give the predicted score for team A in the game. Do the same for Team B. And that's how you create power ratings.
Take the scores of your power ratings matchups and compare them to the spreads at your favorite sportsbook. Pick out the games where there are 3 or more point differences. For example team A is +7 and your power ratings show them at +2 then you want to keep that game. If Team A was +7 and your ratings had them at +6 you want to throw that game away. you only want a 3 or more point difference to move to the next step.
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I've been using a system since week 8 that I got from a website. what you do is You take the last 6 scores of a team's points for and points against. Scratch off the lowest score and the highest score, so you have only 4 scores for each offense and defense. You add them all together and divide by 4 to get the average for each points for and points against.
Once you have all these numbers you can match up two teams by using this method: Add teams A's offense by team B's defense and subtract 20.5, this will give the predicted score for team A in the game. Do the same for Team B. And that's how you create power ratings.
Take the scores of your power ratings matchups and compare them to the spreads at your favorite sportsbook. Pick out the games where there are 3 or more point differences. For example team A is +7 and your power ratings show them at +2 then you want to keep that game. If Team A was +7 and your ratings had them at +6 you want to throw that game away. you only want a 3 or more point difference to move to the next step.
Well, I was doing some more research and since week 8 road dogs have been averaging 6 wins per week. I'm going to pick 3 road dogs this week and they are:
TB +3.5
SF +6.5
DEN +8.5
There are 9 road dogs this week and I'm willing to bet atleast 6 are going to cover. I've also noticed that the double digit favs have been hitting at a higher rate lately but I don't like to bet them regardless.
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Well, I was doing some more research and since week 8 road dogs have been averaging 6 wins per week. I'm going to pick 3 road dogs this week and they are:
TB +3.5
SF +6.5
DEN +8.5
There are 9 road dogs this week and I'm willing to bet atleast 6 are going to cover. I've also noticed that the double digit favs have been hitting at a higher rate lately but I don't like to bet them regardless.
So far 5 road dogs have beat the spread so I'm looking for either the Giants or the Browns to cover in one of these 2 games to keep the 6 road dog average. I just wish I was on the winning end of this trend. Oh well...there's always next week.
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So far 5 road dogs have beat the spread so I'm looking for either the Giants or the Browns to cover in one of these 2 games to keep the 6 road dog average. I just wish I was on the winning end of this trend. Oh well...there's always next week.
As I expected them....From week 14-17...You can play against all these games and you can win.
At 1pm, I played SF W DET W HOU W NYJ Loser WAS Loser (my system play)...I figured it not gonna work from week 14 -17
4pm PITT W CAR W
8pm DAL W
I do not think my system will work since it started to fail from week 14. Therefore, this week, I played the games by using the line movement. It works out well.
MNF..
So far, I like PHILA...it's still too early to tell.
(Sorry, I do not post picks on SUNDAY).
As I've said....week 14-17..those who needed the game, they usually not cover...Just keep that in mind and you can win...
PHILA tonight is another example. They need this game badly...The spread is very high. Look at the past history,
As I expected them....From week 14-17...You can play against all these games and you can win.
At 1pm, I played SF W DET W HOU W NYJ Loser WAS Loser (my system play)...I figured it not gonna work from week 14 -17
4pm PITT W CAR W
8pm DAL W
I do not think my system will work since it started to fail from week 14. Therefore, this week, I played the games by using the line movement. It works out well.
MNF..
So far, I like PHILA...it's still too early to tell.
(Sorry, I do not post picks on SUNDAY).
As I've said....week 14-17..those who needed the game, they usually not cover...Just keep that in mind and you can win...
PHILA tonight is another example. They need this game badly...The spread is very high. Look at the past history,
I'm going to go with the Browns on this one because 5 road dogs covered so far this week and the average is 6 since week 8. I'm thinking the Browns will be #6 this week. You should have told me you were on Carolina and I would have won my parlay so I blame you for the loss... just kidding!
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I'm going to go with the Browns on this one because 5 road dogs covered so far this week and the average is 6 since week 8. I'm thinking the Browns will be #6 this week. You should have told me you were on Carolina and I would have won my parlay so I blame you for the loss... just kidding!
oh by the way, the reason I went to CAR on Sunday is because at 1pm, NYJ was -9 and they lost...So, 4pm, CAR was also -9. If 1pm game lose, 4pm will cover....
Same thing apply for any other lines.
The reason I didn't play SD is because the line was at 5.5. This is the dead line. 90% of the time, dog covered when you have 5.5.
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oh by the way, the reason I went to CAR on Sunday is because at 1pm, NYJ was -9 and they lost...So, 4pm, CAR was also -9. If 1pm game lose, 4pm will cover....
Same thing apply for any other lines.
The reason I didn't play SD is because the line was at 5.5. This is the dead line. 90% of the time, dog covered when you have 5.5.
Looks like Philly proved us both wrong. I have been looking ahead to week 16 and there are hardly any road dogs to choose from. I'm going to have to make picks based on the system I'm using in this case.
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Looks like Philly proved us both wrong. I have been looking ahead to week 16 and there are hardly any road dogs to choose from. I'm going to have to make picks based on the system I'm using in this case.
I'm going to stick to betting road dogs this week 16. Here are my picks for this Sunday:
ARI @ NE -8.5 Pick: Cardinals
CIN @ CLE -3.5 Pick: Bungles
SD @ TB -4.5 Pick: Chargers
One last pick that I would like to make needs an explanation so here goes....I'm going to take the Vikings -4.5 over the Falcons. The Vikings are favored by -4.5 and the system that is mentioned above has them as a 9 point favorite. When a team is actually favored by 5 points or less & the system has them favored by 5 - 9.5 points: Record = 8 Wins 3 Losses 72%. This is the trend that has one of the best winning percentages with this system.
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I'm going to stick to betting road dogs this week 16. Here are my picks for this Sunday:
ARI @ NE -8.5 Pick: Cardinals
CIN @ CLE -3.5 Pick: Bungles
SD @ TB -4.5 Pick: Chargers
One last pick that I would like to make needs an explanation so here goes....I'm going to take the Vikings -4.5 over the Falcons. The Vikings are favored by -4.5 and the system that is mentioned above has them as a 9 point favorite. When a team is actually favored by 5 points or less & the system has them favored by 5 - 9.5 points: Record = 8 Wins 3 Losses 72%. This is the trend that has one of the best winning percentages with this system.
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