Posted:
#76
if you want to do a 3 game chase without risking too many, almost as much as a two game chase, than make your first bet about 1/3 of a unit.
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NBA teams with win percent below 425 fade
Posted:
#77
Forgot to give my findings for 2010-2011. Quickly went over the season - so not sure how accurate this is because I did not keep track of a teams winning % throughout the season. Only went by end of season & included GS .439 because they won their last few games of the season; otherwise they'd have fallen under .425 also.
This system went 88 wins and 9 loses. I'm guessing a lot of plays were not counted by Knox because he tracked it throughout the season and I am backtracking it with the final win % for the teams.
This system went 88 wins and 9 loses. I'm guessing a lot of plays were not counted by Knox because he tracked it throughout the season and I am backtracking it with the final win % for the teams.
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Posted:
#78
44 wins and 8 loses for last year ..So @ 8 losses at 3 units a loss would bring you to 24 units ... so total profit of 20 units .. You will make 20 units with this easy to follow system ...
Todays Plays Lakers -5
wait to see what Detroit does .. If they cover we know to ride the fade on them there next game ... If they dont cover , its no big deal
Thank for posting the plays Glenfkb01
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Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by IPICKGAMES:
Similarly to fading under .425 teams has anyone taken a look at fading teams that have gone over/under 4 or 5 times in a row? I looked at a few teams (approximately 8)this year and haven't seen a streak of more than 6 games? Same strategy can be applied here. Let me know thoughts.
Similarly to fading under .425 teams has anyone taken a look at fading teams that have gone over/under 4 or 5 times in a row? I looked at a few teams (approximately 8)this year and haven't seen a streak of more than 6 games? Same strategy can be applied here. Let me know thoughts.
I have looked at that while ago .. The best patterns thatI found ,for a 3 game chase is if a team is playing 3 games in 4 night the chances are very good that the one of the 3 games are going over .. tired legs make for bad defense. But I stopped playing that I started betting this system instead .. I just feel comfortable betting aginst the bottom of the barrel teams ..
I look for 5-7 units a month ... doesn't sound like much , but if it can pay the lease payment on the car and other misc. items that is good enought for me ..
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Posted:
#83
Nice thread and I like your approach. Only noticed it because of the NHL break. I plan on tailing it. Dug through the records and noticed that following your method would have produced 12 wins ( for the season) before tonight and if you would have played with alternate point spreads of 1/2 pt. you could save some juice. And if you wanted to push it a little with 3 pts. and make your line +137 and stopped your chases where you did you would have lost 3 of the 12 but be up another unit. But you'd have to watch this method if the lines do really get sharper as the season progresses. But I really do like what you have going.
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Posted:
#86
Teams under .425 (As of Jan 29)
Teams ATS Current ATS Streak
- NY Knicks (ATS 5-15) Lost 1
- NJ Nets (ATS 10-10) Won 2 ****
- Toronto (ATS 10-10) lost 1
- Milwaukee (ATS 9-10) Won 3****
- Cleveland (ATS 10-8) lost 1
- Detroit (ATS 6-14-1) lost 1
- Washington(ATS 7-13) won1
- Charlotte (ATS 7-14) Lost 5
- Phoenix (ATS 8-11) won 1
- G.S. (ATS 8-10) lost1
- Sacremento (ATS 7-13) won 1
- New Orleans (ATS 10-9) Won 5
TODAYS GAMES
Toronto +5 at NJ
Atlanta -2.5 at MIL if you dare.... not part of this system
Note MILWAUKEE is on the cusp of going over .425
Note MINNESOTA is on the cusp of going under .425
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Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by bulichm:
k-murder,thanks for the info. I was wondering if this was done after the first ats win or how knox is playing it after the second win?
k-murder,thanks for the info. I was wondering if this was done after the first ats win or how knox is playing it after the second win?
My bad, the 12-2 indicates its the way knox is playing it.I just looked up the smae thing for this year . Also there would have been an additional 15 or so wins if there was a chase initiated after the first ats loss. One other thing did you notice any kind of w/l rate drop towards the end of the season in your research?
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Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by k-murder:
I was doing some analysis on this strategy. While this strategy worked very well last year, the years before have had mixed results.
My analysis on the previous 6 years shows the following results ($ based on $110 bet g1, $220 bet g2):
YTD: 12-2 +290
2010/2011: 89-14 +3560
2009/2010: 56-26 -3270
2008/2009: 70-27 -2930
2007/2008: 76-14 +2560
2006/2007: 73-21 -180
2005/2006: 56-21 -2230
A few things to keep in mind:
1) In my analysis, I chose teams to bet based on a .425 winning percentages at that point that the bet is made, not based on using year end standings. For example, last year memphis started off terribly, and would have been a play up until their 35th game. By the 36th game, their winning percentage never dipped below .425, so they never were a play again. The analysis in this post only uses year end standings, which is not realistic.
2) I started all season after the 10th game to give some meaning to the winning percentages.
Losses for this year would have been on:
1/13/2012 - Houston
1/25/2012 - New Orleans
Losses last year would have been on:
1/12/11 - Charlotte
2/27/11 - Cleveland
12/27/10 - Detroit
12/7/10 - Houston
3/9/11 - LA Clippers
12/11/10 - Memphis
3/12/11 - Milwaukee
4/5/11 - Milwaukee
11/14/10 - Minnesota
11/20/10 - New York
12/3/10 - Philadelphia
1/24/11 - Philadelphia
3/29/11 - Sacramento
11/24/10 - Toronto
I was doing some analysis on this strategy. While this strategy worked very well last year, the years before have had mixed results.
My analysis on the previous 6 years shows the following results ($ based on $110 bet g1, $220 bet g2):
YTD: 12-2 +290
2010/2011: 89-14 +3560
2009/2010: 56-26 -3270
2008/2009: 70-27 -2930
2007/2008: 76-14 +2560
2006/2007: 73-21 -180
2005/2006: 56-21 -2230
A few things to keep in mind:
1) In my analysis, I chose teams to bet based on a .425 winning percentages at that point that the bet is made, not based on using year end standings. For example, last year memphis started off terribly, and would have been a play up until their 35th game. By the 36th game, their winning percentage never dipped below .425, so they never were a play again. The analysis in this post only uses year end standings, which is not realistic.
2) I started all season after the 10th game to give some meaning to the winning percentages.
Losses for this year would have been on:
1/13/2012 - Houston
1/25/2012 - New Orleans
Losses last year would have been on:
1/12/11 - Charlotte
2/27/11 - Cleveland
12/27/10 - Detroit
12/7/10 - Houston
3/9/11 - LA Clippers
12/11/10 - Memphis
3/12/11 - Milwaukee
4/5/11 - Milwaukee
11/14/10 - Minnesota
11/20/10 - New York
12/3/10 - Philadelphia
1/24/11 - Philadelphia
3/29/11 - Sacramento
11/24/10 - Toronto
Can you explain the 2010/11 results, there were 14 losses at -$330 for a total of -$4620 and 89 wins at +$8,900 isnt the net for the season +$4,280 ?
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SYSTEM RESULTS +6 units
Posted:
#99
No plays today..
the teams we are fading are
New Orleans these are the 10 teams we are going to fade after
2 ATS . The 425 win percent is too high .. the highest win percent right now ia Phoenix at 368 thats as high as I go .. sorry for the wrong info .. So 368 or lower is a fade after 2 ats ..
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Posted:
#100
im starting a new system today listen up if you want to beat da NBA I DONE DA NUMBERS ON THIS FEEL FREE TO CHECK 4 YOURSELF HERE IT IS . ONLY BET GAME WITH HOME FAVS -7 OR MORE TAKE FAV +6.5 OR LESS TAKE DOG . FOR DA SEASON DA RECORD IS 117-82 THATS 35 UNITS SINCE OPENING DAY AT $100 PER UNIT YOU R WINNING $2678 EXP 2NITE PHIL -7 HEAT -12 SPURS +6 BUCKS -7.5 MIN +6.5 GL
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