NBA: Effect of late withdrawl of "star" player

Quote Originally Posted by DK-:

Duncan is out tonight

 

line movement from Spurs -3 to Spurs +2

 

I am playin the spurs

Hey dude, the reason why that didn't fit my system was because Duncan was known to be out well in advance of the game (i.e. >90min from tip off)

Exactly. If Kobe was to be ruled out now (being within 90min of tip) and the line moves towards the Clips, Lakers would be the play.

Lets see if this happens, I'll be laying the points for sure.

A decision to sit a star player could have been made the night before or a few hours before. The 90min parameter basically refers to when the absence of the player becomes public information, when that occurs is obvious as the line will move accordingly.

Magic @ Heat - Friday 28th December 2007

Opening line: Magic -3.5/Heat +3.5

Line adjustment post withdrawl: Magic -4.5/Heat +4.5 (Shaq)

FT: Magic 121-114 (OT)

ATS Result: Magic

76ers @ Kings - Friday 28th December 2007

Opening line: 76ers +4/Kings -4

Line adjustment post withdrawl: 76ers +3/Kings -3 (Artest)

FT: 76ers 92-80

ATS Result: 76ers

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Quote Originally Posted by JG33:

Rod,

Don't know if you are still following this system but Garnett was a late scratch today.  Line went from Bos -1 to Orlando - 2 1/2.  Orlando won by 3.

I'll update this thread shortly. You are right, in that instance it fell just short.

Celtics @ Magic - 27th January 2008

Opening Line: Celtics -1.5/Magic +1.5

Line adjustment post withdrawl: Celtics +2.5/Magic -2.5 (Garnett)

FT: Magic 96-93

ATS Result: Magic

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YTD Record (7-5-1)

Interesting about your latter point - I'd suspect it would work the opposite meaning you fade the team with the star player returning if he spent a certain period of time in the sidelines.