Posted:
#1
I don't even know whether this should even be in this section because I wouldn't call what I intend to a system of sorts but its easier for me to track it here.
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An observation I have made in the past few seasons is that whenever a key player from a team is a last minute withdrawl from a team which subsquently causes a line movement against it, the team still invariably covers the line as many get suckered into playing the other side. I have no evidence of this so could be talking out of my ass here or simply it could be a case of coincidence therefore I want to put some numbers around this for a few months and see for myself whether there is any merit to my assertion above.
Assuming this is the case I am thinking aloud as to some of the reasons why this could be the case, whereby you have teams that are still managing to cover even after their star player is scratched on late notice. Some obvious reasons are:
- The support players in the team raise a level knowing that their key man is out for the game with effort and enthusiasm levels significantly increased especially on the defensive end.
- Conversely the opposting team's effort and enthusiasm levels is brought down a notch, it is human nature to do so knowing that their opposition are without their key player. Subconciously it could be a case of them thinking all they need to do is turn up on the night to register a W.
- Possibly overreaction by the linemakers/public? How does one exactly quantify in terms of points the absence of a particular player? Frankly it is a guessing game however from Vegas' perspective they need to set a line which ensure equal action or close to it, therefore it is ultimately the public which is setting and therefore 'overreacting' upon the news of the withdrawl.
Ok now to actually testing this theory out. I have set some parameters around this so that I can bring some consistency around what I am tracking. My key parameters will be
1) The player who actually withdraws on the night must be a "star" player (i.e. ranked in the top 2 players in the team). With most teams it's pretty obvious who those 2 players are, for other teams where it may not be as obvious I am have to use some judgement. I'll cross that bridge when we get there.
2) The withdrawl must occur no earlier than 90min before scheduled tip off meaning the linemakers will have limited time to factor the withdrawl in any opening lines and any public reactions to the news in overnight lines.
3) There must be an actual line movement, and the movement must favour the opposing team. The movement must be at least 1 point.
Lets get the ball rolling.
I have noticed myself! For some reason it is very hard to go the other way in this kind of situation
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