I figured I'd share my NBA system on here as well. I run it exactly the same as the NFL 1Q chase on here, so go check out the rules in that thread. Again, pushes count as no play, and I reserve the right to switch teams throughout the season based on performance.
I use labby lines to determine the units I bet to win. I'll share that amount each game. If you follow what I list, you should be close to thread unit count.
Chase teams:
Cavaliers Thunder Spurs Bulls Clippers
Fade teams:
76ers Bucks Jazz Magic Timberwolves
2013-14 Total: 245 - 11
A. 175 - 81 B. 53 - 28 C. 17 -11
First plays are tomorrow!
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello, all.
I figured I'd share my NBA system on here as well. I run it exactly the same as the NFL 1Q chase on here, so go check out the rules in that thread. Again, pushes count as no play, and I reserve the right to switch teams throughout the season based on performance.
I use labby lines to determine the units I bet to win. I'll share that amount each game. If you follow what I list, you should be close to thread unit count.
I didn't track it accurately.. But I started doing labby around February and cleared 20 units from that point. I'd say 50 units would be a realistic goal for this year, but it's not guaranteed by any means.
0
Quote Originally Posted by jonny2k4:
What did unit count look like last season?
I didn't track it accurately.. But I started doing labby around February and cleared 20 units from that point. I'd say 50 units would be a realistic goal for this year, but it's not guaranteed by any means.
Lines are ridiculous right now. Things won't work well if books keep making every good team a -300 favorite for the freaking first quarter. We'll see. Today
A Cavs (3.80 to win 1.07) A Clippers (3.80 to win 1.07)* A Jazz fade (4.06 to win 1.40)
YTD Chase Record: 3-0 Unit Count: -1.22
A. 3-2 B. 0-0 C. 0-0
*seriously, they're playing the Thunder. How the hell are they -355 favorites?
0
Lines are ridiculous right now. Things won't work well if books keep making every good team a -300 favorite for the freaking first quarter. We'll see. Today
A Cavs (3.80 to win 1.07) A Clippers (3.80 to win 1.07)* A Jazz fade (4.06 to win 1.40)
YTD Chase Record: 3-0 Unit Count: -1.22
A. 3-2 B. 0-0 C. 0-0
*seriously, they're playing the Thunder. How the hell are they -355 favorites?
Well whaddya know.. the Clippers lost the first quarter as a -355 favorite. After some thought, I'm going to filter out games that are -300 and over from now on. There's just no way a team should be expected to win >75% of their first quarters against another NBA team in my opinion. The game is too random.
As an experiment, I'm going to start betting a half unit on the moneyline for an underdog that is playing a -300 favorite or greater in the first quarter. I'll track it here, but it's not part of the official system as it's never been backtested.
Today
A Bulls (3.43 to win 2.64)
A 76ers fade (4.44 to win 2.40)
YTD Chase Record: 5-0
Unit Count: -2.55
A. 5-3
B. 0-0
C. 0-0
0
Well whaddya know.. the Clippers lost the first quarter as a -355 favorite. After some thought, I'm going to filter out games that are -300 and over from now on. There's just no way a team should be expected to win >75% of their first quarters against another NBA team in my opinion. The game is too random.
As an experiment, I'm going to start betting a half unit on the moneyline for an underdog that is playing a -300 favorite or greater in the first quarter. I'll track it here, but it's not part of the official system as it's never been backtested.
Alright, guys. 5Dimes has been way too inconsistent with their moneylines (they've been randomly releasing them at weird times throughout the day), so I'm going to have to switch this system up.
I'm switching to a four game chase on the first quarter spread. The rules for qualifying series are still the same. I'm going to reset my unit count and the record from here on out. I'll add the units lost from this first part (-6.34) at the end of the year.
I won't be doing labby any more, therefore I won't be listing the unit amounts to bet. However, each game should have about -110 odds and each series loss should cost about -18.44 units. It's pretty easy to figure out.
Obviously, this is going to be experimental, as I didn't run it last year. However, the advantage should hold in my opinion.
Today
A Clippers (spread = -3)
A Jazz fade (-3)
YTD Chase Record: 0-0
Unit Count: +0.00
A.
B.
C.
D.
0
Alright, guys. 5Dimes has been way too inconsistent with their moneylines (they've been randomly releasing them at weird times throughout the day), so I'm going to have to switch this system up.
I'm switching to a four game chase on the first quarter spread. The rules for qualifying series are still the same. I'm going to reset my unit count and the record from here on out. I'll add the units lost from this first part (-6.34) at the end of the year.
I won't be doing labby any more, therefore I won't be listing the unit amounts to bet. However, each game should have about -110 odds and each series loss should cost about -18.44 units. It's pretty easy to figure out.
Obviously, this is going to be experimental, as I didn't run it last year. However, the advantage should hold in my opinion.
Hot Forum Topics
