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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB Synthesis System

    123456 Next Last»
    TheBeefMan
    petertjm
    Upside
    GhostNL
    Kababayan
    ...
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    123456 Next Last»
     
    TheBeefMan
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 3:50 AM ET #1

    Greetings, all.

    I’ve followed a few systems for multiples years that I have high confidence in; I’m investing heavily in them this summer - and I figured I'd share them here, They are all from this forum more or less with a few variations. I'll also be sharing them on Twitter (I'd give you my username but I'm not sure if it violates Covers' rules, PM me if interested), and may start a Google Doc if I can find some time. Here are the systems I'll be following:

    1.) 5-Run LOSS Chase (founded by flwareagle)

    The 5-run LOSS chase involves chasing a team for 4 games who recently lost by 5 runs. Specifically, when a team with a record of over .525 loses a game by 5 or more runs – I skip two games then begin to chase them for a win. 

    2.) 5-Run WIN Chase (founded by Cisco.)

    The 5-run WIN chase is essentially the opposite of the 5-Run LOSS chase. This system involves fading a team with a record of under .470 who wins by 5 or more runs. Again, we skip two games after the win before beginning the chase.

    A note: Bart graciously runs these systems on a Google doc that can be found here. However, he skips two more games if a team wins or loses by 5+ runs during a chase.. I won’t do that here. 

    3.) Home Team Fade (founded by BDNews)

    Finally, this system involves fading a home team that just came off of a 6 games or more road-stand. BD used this for every team, but I’m only going to fade teams under .470 for this one. My confidence in this system isn’t necessarily as high as the others.


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    Greetings, all.

    I’ve followed a few systems for multiples years that I have high confidence in; I’m investing heavily in them this summer - and I figured I'd share them here, They are all from this forum more or less with a few variations. I'll also be sharing them on Twitter (I'd give you my username but I'm not sure if it violates Covers' rules, PM me if interested), and may start a Google Doc if I can find some time. Here are the systems I'll be following:

    1.) 5-Run LOSS Chase (founded by flwareagle)

    The 5-run LOSS chase involves chasing a team for 4 games who recently lost by 5 runs. Specifically, when a team with a record of over .525 loses a game by 5 or more runs – I skip two games then begin to chase them for a win. 

    2.) 5-Run WIN Chase (founded by Cisco.)

    The 5-run WIN chase is essentially the opposite of the 5-Run LOSS chase. This system involves fading a team with a record of under .470 who wins by 5 or more runs. Again, we skip two games after the win before beginning the chase.

    A note: Bart graciously runs these systems on a Google doc that can be found here. However, he skips two more games if a team wins or loses by 5+ runs during a chase.. I won’t do that here. 

    3.) Home Team Fade (founded by BDNews)

    Finally, this system involves fading a home team that just came off of a 6 games or more road-stand. BD used this for every team, but I’m only going to fade teams under .470 for this one. My confidence in this system isn’t necessarily as high as the others.


     
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 3:51 AM ET #2

    MONEY MANAGEMENT

    The most important aspect of following a chase system (or betting in general) is money management. You should know the volatility of the system you’re playing, how much you can afford to lose, and the amount you would like to win. With that said, here are my goals for the season and each system.

    5-Run Loss Chase: 50 units
    5-Run Win Chase: 50 units
    Home Team fade: 20 units 

    My plan is to stop playing each system once (if) we hit these goals.

    My bank will consist of 100 units at the start of the season. Each series will be to win 1 unit. After I each series win, I will put half of the winnings in the bank and half in an imaginary “pocket" (thanks to DanRules for giving me this idea). I will then divide the bank by 100 to get a new unit amount and won't touch the pocket. Here’s an example:

    Starting bank: $1000
    Starting pocket: $0
    Unit Size: $10

    Series win = + $10

    New bank: $1005
    New pocket: $5
    Unit Size: $10.05

    And so on..


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    MONEY MANAGEMENT

    The most important aspect of following a chase system (or betting in general) is money management. You should know the volatility of the system you’re playing, how much you can afford to lose, and the amount you would like to win. With that said, here are my goals for the season and each system.

    5-Run Loss Chase: 50 units
    5-Run Win Chase: 50 units
    Home Team fade: 20 units 

    My plan is to stop playing each system once (if) we hit these goals.

    My bank will consist of 100 units at the start of the season. Each series will be to win 1 unit. After I each series win, I will put half of the winnings in the bank and half in an imaginary “pocket" (thanks to DanRules for giving me this idea). I will then divide the bank by 100 to get a new unit amount and won't touch the pocket. Here’s an example:

    Starting bank: $1000
    Starting pocket: $0
    Unit Size: $10

    Series win = + $10

    New bank: $1005
    New pocket: $5
    Unit Size: $10.05

    And so on..


     
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 3:52 AM ET #3

    April

    Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.

    Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants

    Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers

    —

    Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season. 

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    April

    Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.

    Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants

    Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers

    —

    Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season. 

     
    petertjm
    petertjm
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 6:24 AM ET #4

    HI , I love to follow these systems. I pm you, please let me know ur twitter acct  Thx Pete
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    HI , I love to follow these systems. I pm you, please let me know ur twitter acct  Thx Pete
     
    Upside
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 7:37 AM ET #5

    Thx bro ... I'm going to tail this year .. 
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    Thx bro ... I'm going to tail this year .. 
     
    GhostNL
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 8:42 AM ET #6

    Beefman have you some record of these chases? Like how many times they won/lost?
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    Beefman have you some record of these chases? Like how many times they won/lost?
     
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 9:13 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by GhostNL:

    Beefman have you some record of these chases? Like how many times they won/lost?

    Unfortunately I don't. The only knowledge I have is that they've worked well for me in the past -, enough so that I'm willing to invest in them this summer. Bart or flwareagle may have some more detailed numbers from the first two systems, the Home Fade did well the year before last with all teams.

    Although I'm confident in this method, like any system there is a chance that this will crash and burn. Prepare yourself accordingly if you choose to tail. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by GhostNL:

    Beefman have you some record of these chases? Like how many times they won/lost?

    Unfortunately I don't. The only knowledge I have is that they've worked well for me in the past -, enough so that I'm willing to invest in them this summer. Bart or flwareagle may have some more detailed numbers from the first two systems, the Home Fade did well the year before last with all teams.

    Although I'm confident in this method, like any system there is a chance that this will crash and burn. Prepare yourself accordingly if you choose to tail. 
     
    Kababayan
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 11:40 AM ET #8

    Beefman, I sent you a friend request for your twitter handle.  Thanks.
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    Beefman, I sent you a friend request for your twitter handle.  Thanks.
     
    jonny2k4
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 4:43 PM ET #9

    Are you posting plays in here?
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    Are you posting plays in here?
     
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 8:10 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny2k4:

    Are you posting plays in here?

    Yessir, that's the plan.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny2k4:

    Are you posting plays in here?

    Yessir, that's the plan.
     
    jonny2k4
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 8:37 PM ET #11

    So this will be official thread for all three systems?
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    So this will be official thread for all three systems?
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 9:28 PM ET #12

    Just a note that I also have a a couple line filters:

    Favorites must be at least -110
    Dogs cannot be more then +175
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    Just a note that I also have a a couple line filters:

    Favorites must be at least -110
    Dogs cannot be more then +175
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 9:33 PM ET #13

    Beef, if you want to back test your filters / plays, use this. You can download it into Excel and play around with it. 

    https://tinyurl.com/ma9b64o

    MR in the Mark column represents the start of a chase. 
    S1/S2 are skip games
    G1L, G2L...Game 1 Loss, Game 2 loss...
    G1W, G2W...Game 1 win, Game 2 win...
    NP means No Play (filters in the previous posts). 

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    Beef, if you want to back test your filters / plays, use this. You can download it into Excel and play around with it. 

    https://tinyurl.com/ma9b64o

    MR in the Mark column represents the start of a chase. 
    S1/S2 are skip games
    G1L, G2L...Game 1 Loss, Game 2 loss...
    G1W, G2W...Game 1 win, Game 2 win...
    NP means No Play (filters in the previous posts). 

     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2015 - 10:07 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBeefMan:

    April

    Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.

    Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants

    Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers

    —

    Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season. 


    One correction, for the 5 Run Win Chase (under 470), it should be MIA, not ATL. MIA is +4911. ATL is +4146
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBeefMan:

    April

    Things are a bit wacky in April. Teams are getting their legs under them and we can’t really separate the contenders from the pretenders. Thus, similar to Bart, I limit the betting of each system to 10 teams – all decided by preseason odds to win a championship. Only these teams can qualify for a chase during April, and their records have to fall into the criteria at the start of the chase.

    Teams for 5-Run Loss Chase: Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, St. Louis, Chicago, Angels, Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Giants

    Teams for 5-Run Win Chase, Home Team Fade: Phillies, Dbacks, Twins, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Rays, Brewers

    —

    Plays should start popping up about a week from now. Let's have a successful season. 


    One correction, for the 5 Run Win Chase (under 470), it should be MIA, not ATL. MIA is +4911. ATL is +4146
     
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2015 - 6:02 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny2k4:

    So this will be official thread for all three systems?

    For the way I'm playing them, yes. 

    Bart has a Google doc in a separate thread that him and Cisco have been running for a few years. The only difference here is that I won't be skipping 2 games if a team wins by 5+ during a series. This will result in more plays- but his method has been back tested a bit more thoroughly. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny2k4:

    So this will be official thread for all three systems?

    For the way I'm playing them, yes. 

    Bart has a Google doc in a separate thread that him and Cisco have been running for a few years. The only difference here is that I won't be skipping 2 games if a team wins by 5+ during a series. This will result in more plays- but his method has been back tested a bit more thoroughly. 
     
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2015 - 6:05 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

    Beef, if you want to back test your filters / plays, use this. You can download it into Excel and play around with it. 

    https://tinyurl.com/ma9b64o

    MR in the Mark column represents the start of a chase. 
    S1/S2 are skip games
    G1L, G2L...Game 1 Loss, Game 2 loss...
    G1W, G2W...Game 1 win, Game 2 win...
    NP means No Play (filters in the previous posts). 


    You're the best, I'll check it out. And thanks for the catch on Atlanta!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

    Beef, if you want to back test your filters / plays, use this. You can download it into Excel and play around with it. 

    https://tinyurl.com/ma9b64o

    MR in the Mark column represents the start of a chase. 
    S1/S2 are skip games
    G1L, G2L...Game 1 Loss, Game 2 loss...
    G1W, G2W...Game 1 win, Game 2 win...
    NP means No Play (filters in the previous posts). 


    You're the best, I'll check it out. And thanks for the catch on Atlanta!
     
    TheBeefMan
    TheBeefMan
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    Posts: 538
    Posted: Apr. 5, 2015 - 9:23 AM ET #17

    Here's the Google doc - I'll be sharing the plays there as well. It's my first time creating one of these so I hope it's not too awkward. 

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TixvOCvOle_krL3CKdAD8JJbrMRBMCFpQKs4a2jiOc0/edit#gid=1224173122
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    Here's the Google doc - I'll be sharing the plays there as well. It's my first time creating one of these so I hope it's not too awkward. 

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TixvOCvOle_krL3CKdAD8JJbrMRBMCFpQKs4a2jiOc0/edit#gid=1224173122
     
    doubledime
    doubledime
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2015 - 11:37 AM ET #18

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    Bart_
    Bart_
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2015 - 12:12 PM ET #19

    looks good man
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    looks good man
     
    TheBeefMan
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2015 - 6:36 AM ET #20

    First play of the season today. This one qualifies for two systems (5 run win and home fade) but I'm only going to play it as one series. No use for the extra risk.

    Today

    A Minnesota fade

    YTD Chase Record: 0-0
    Unit count: 0.00

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    First play of the season today. This one qualifies for two systems (5 run win and home fade) but I'm only going to play it as one series. No use for the extra risk.

    Today

    A Minnesota fade

    YTD Chase Record: 0-0
    Unit count: 0.00

     
    Upside
    Upside
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2015 - 12:45 PM ET #21

    Thx bro for the Post !!! been looking for ya .. 
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    Thx bro for the Post !!! been looking for ya .. 
     
    TheBeefMan
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2015 - 12:49 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

    Thx bro for the Post !!! been looking for ya .. 

    Thank you, sir. I should be here all season. Let's get some wins. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

    Thx bro for the Post !!! been looking for ya .. 

    Thank you, sir. I should be here all season. Let's get some wins. 
     
    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2015 - 1:31 PM ET #23

    Love the play. Good luck!
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Love the play. Good luck!
     
    TheBeefMan
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2015 - 2:24 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Love the play. Good luck!

    Thank you, Dan! And great job on the parlay plays, I'm tailing those as well. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Love the play. Good luck!

    Thank you, Dan! And great job on the parlay plays, I'm tailing those as well. 
     
     
    TheBeefMan
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2015 - 10:15 AM ET #25

    Today

    No plays

    YTD Chase Record: 1-0
    Unit count: +1.00

    A. 1-0
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    Today

    No plays

    YTD Chase Record: 1-0
    Unit count: +1.00

    A. 1-0
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