Posted:
#26
Nice, thanks for the tip!
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MLB Run Line System
Posted:
#27
Ok, I promised to find time to check whether April and May had some freak years in your system. Today I finally had loads of time so here we go.
April stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
6 4-2 (66.7%) -105.8 +$155 2007
12 6-6 (50.0%) 127.5 +$155 2008
5 3-2 (60.0%) 121.0 +$160 2009
8 3-5 (37.5%) 108.4 -$163 2010
7 4-3 (57.1%) 144.6 +$286 2011
2 0-2 (0.0%) 133.0 -$200 2012
2 1-1 (50.0%) 105.5 $0 2013
4 2-2 (50.0%) 131.5 +$51 2014
3 2-1 (66.7%) 139.3 +$189 2015
4 4-0 (100.0%) 119.8 +$479 2016
Very few games per season in April, as expected. One freak season compared to the other seasons and the total of all Aprils of all season +1112 for 10 seasons, and +479 of that came from last year.
May stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
14 8-6 (57.1%) -101.8 +$235 2007
16 5-11 (31.2%) 130.6 -$465 2008
12 5-7 (41.7%) 122.1 -$105 2009
8 4-4 (50.0%) 115.0 +$35 2010
9 3-6 (33.3%) 136.0 -$219 2011
4 2-2 (50.0%) 120.2 +$43 2012
1 1-0 (100.0%) 145.0 +$145 2013
8 2-6 (25.0%) 135.9 -$327 2014
9 4-5 (44.4%) 137.6 +$46 2015
9 7-2 (77.8%) 131.0 +$704 2016
Well, very much up and down. Last season again was a rather "freak" season. +704 when the 10 year total is +92.
Sounds like one could very well have a reason to skip April and May.
Lets check if there are freak months in other months, either very high minus or very high plus months:
June: One -300-year, one other -100 year, one +-0 year and others between +100 and +500. One freak yaer of +1194.
July: One -600-year, a couple +600-+800 years, a couple of -200 years, a couple of +-0 years, otherwise between +200 and +400.
August: One -1000 year and one +800 year. One year -200, one +-0 season, otherwise all years between +150 and +650.
September: One season -300, one +-0, otherwise all seasons between +150 and +700.
October: Very few games, only in 3 seasons, all between +150 and +250.
All months from June to October seem very playable no doubt. April and May seem to be more of a coin toss between profit or loss.
April stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
6 4-2 (66.7%) -105.8 +$155 2007
12 6-6 (50.0%) 127.5 +$155 2008
5 3-2 (60.0%) 121.0 +$160 2009
8 3-5 (37.5%) 108.4 -$163 2010
7 4-3 (57.1%) 144.6 +$286 2011
2 0-2 (0.0%) 133.0 -$200 2012
2 1-1 (50.0%) 105.5 $0 2013
4 2-2 (50.0%) 131.5 +$51 2014
3 2-1 (66.7%) 139.3 +$189 2015
4 4-0 (100.0%) 119.8 +$479 2016
Very few games per season in April, as expected. One freak season compared to the other seasons and the total of all Aprils of all season +1112 for 10 seasons, and +479 of that came from last year.
May stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
14 8-6 (57.1%) -101.8 +$235 2007
16 5-11 (31.2%) 130.6 -$465 2008
12 5-7 (41.7%) 122.1 -$105 2009
8 4-4 (50.0%) 115.0 +$35 2010
9 3-6 (33.3%) 136.0 -$219 2011
4 2-2 (50.0%) 120.2 +$43 2012
1 1-0 (100.0%) 145.0 +$145 2013
8 2-6 (25.0%) 135.9 -$327 2014
9 4-5 (44.4%) 137.6 +$46 2015
9 7-2 (77.8%) 131.0 +$704 2016
Well, very much up and down. Last season again was a rather "freak" season. +704 when the 10 year total is +92.
Sounds like one could very well have a reason to skip April and May.
Lets check if there are freak months in other months, either very high minus or very high plus months:
June: One -300-year, one other -100 year, one +-0 year and others between +100 and +500. One freak yaer of +1194.
July: One -600-year, a couple +600-+800 years, a couple of -200 years, a couple of +-0 years, otherwise between +200 and +400.
August: One -1000 year and one +800 year. One year -200, one +-0 season, otherwise all years between +150 and +650.
September: One season -300, one +-0, otherwise all seasons between +150 and +700.
October: Very few games, only in 3 seasons, all between +150 and +250.
All months from June to October seem very playable no doubt. April and May seem to be more of a coin toss between profit or loss.
0
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:
Ok, I promised to find time to check whether April and May had some freak years in your system. Today I finally had loads of time so here we go.
April stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
6 4-2 (66.7%) -105.8 +$155 2007
12 6-6 (50.0%) 127.5 +$155 2008
5 3-2 (60.0%) 121.0 +$160 2009
8 3-5 (37.5%) 108.4 -$163 2010
7 4-3 (57.1%) 144.6 +$286 2011
2 0-2 (0.0%) 133.0 -$200 2012
2 1-1 (50.0%) 105.5 $0 2013
4 2-2 (50.0%) 131.5 +$51 2014
3 2-1 (66.7%) 139.3 +$189 2015
4 4-0 (100.0%) 119.8 +$479 2016
Very few games per season in April, as expected. One freak season compared to the other seasons and the total of all Aprils of all season +1112 for 10 seasons, and +479 of that came from last year.
May stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
14 8-6 (57.1%) -101.8 +$235 2007
16 5-11 (31.2%) 130.6 -$465 2008
12 5-7 (41.7%) 122.1 -$105 2009
8 4-4 (50.0%) 115.0 +$35 2010
9 3-6 (33.3%) 136.0 -$219 2011
4 2-2 (50.0%) 120.2 +$43 2012
1 1-0 (100.0%) 145.0 +$145 2013
8 2-6 (25.0%) 135.9 -$327 2014
9 4-5 (44.4%) 137.6 +$46 2015
9 7-2 (77.8%) 131.0 +$704 2016
Well, very much up and down. Last season again was a rather "freak" season. +704 when the 10 year total is +92.
Sounds like one could very well have a reason to skip April and May.
Lets check if there are freak months in other months, either very high minus or very high plus months:
June: One -300-year, one other -100 year, one +-0 year and others between +100 and +500. One freak yaer of +1194.
July: One -600-year, a couple +600-+800 years, a couple of -200 years, a couple of +-0 years, otherwise between +200 and +400.
August: One -1000 year and one +800 year. One year -200, one +-0 season, otherwise all years between +150 and +650.
September: One season -300, one +-0, otherwise all seasons between +150 and +700.
October: Very few games, only in 3 seasons, all between +150 and +250.
All months from June to October seem very playable no doubt. April and May seem to be more of a coin toss between profit or loss.
Ok, I promised to find time to check whether April and May had some freak years in your system. Today I finally had loads of time so here we go.
April stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
6 4-2 (66.7%) -105.8 +$155 2007
12 6-6 (50.0%) 127.5 +$155 2008
5 3-2 (60.0%) 121.0 +$160 2009
8 3-5 (37.5%) 108.4 -$163 2010
7 4-3 (57.1%) 144.6 +$286 2011
2 0-2 (0.0%) 133.0 -$200 2012
2 1-1 (50.0%) 105.5 $0 2013
4 2-2 (50.0%) 131.5 +$51 2014
3 2-1 (66.7%) 139.3 +$189 2015
4 4-0 (100.0%) 119.8 +$479 2016
Very few games per season in April, as expected. One freak season compared to the other seasons and the total of all Aprils of all season +1112 for 10 seasons, and +479 of that came from last year.
May stats year by year:
Games RL Record RL Avg Line $ RL On Season
14 8-6 (57.1%) -101.8 +$235 2007
16 5-11 (31.2%) 130.6 -$465 2008
12 5-7 (41.7%) 122.1 -$105 2009
8 4-4 (50.0%) 115.0 +$35 2010
9 3-6 (33.3%) 136.0 -$219 2011
4 2-2 (50.0%) 120.2 +$43 2012
1 1-0 (100.0%) 145.0 +$145 2013
8 2-6 (25.0%) 135.9 -$327 2014
9 4-5 (44.4%) 137.6 +$46 2015
9 7-2 (77.8%) 131.0 +$704 2016
Well, very much up and down. Last season again was a rather "freak" season. +704 when the 10 year total is +92.
Sounds like one could very well have a reason to skip April and May.
Lets check if there are freak months in other months, either very high minus or very high plus months:
June: One -300-year, one other -100 year, one +-0 year and others between +100 and +500. One freak yaer of +1194.
July: One -600-year, a couple +600-+800 years, a couple of -200 years, a couple of +-0 years, otherwise between +200 and +400.
August: One -1000 year and one +800 year. One year -200, one +-0 season, otherwise all years between +150 and +650.
September: One season -300, one +-0, otherwise all seasons between +150 and +700.
October: Very few games, only in 3 seasons, all between +150 and +250.
All months from June to October seem very playable no doubt. April and May seem to be more of a coin toss between profit or loss.
Nice research! Yeah, April and May will most likely be choppy because the early winning percentages aren't as meaningful. I'm definitely more interested in June and beyond.
0
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers:
Results for 4/16
LAA -1.5RL +140 LOSS (-1u)
Looks like the Angels moved back to underdogs before game time. Bad break.
I'll try to make decisions closer to game time to get results that more closely reflect the system parameters.
Results for 4/16
LAA -1.5RL +140 LOSS (-1u)
Looks like the Angels moved back to underdogs before game time. Bad break.
I'll try to make decisions closer to game time to get results that more closely reflect the system parameters.
Day: 0-1 (-1.00u)
YTD: 1-3 (-1.55u)
About the changes closer to game time (favs becoming dogs, line moving from >=8 to 7,5 etc):
- Are you still going to (in the end of the season) follow the results of the games that you played or just the games that fell under the system?
As from what I see from killersport, the only games so far falling to the system criteria have been:
1. 4/5 Giants Loss
2. 4/18 Mariners Win
- This game total by the way became 8 in the end, making it also a play in my tweaked version of playing just the games with the total 8. Just very difficult to get exactly right plays when I go to sleep hours before gametime.. I think I will give up that extra 10 % in ROI in exchange to be able to play 5 times the amount of games and to win double the money without changing my unit size or bet size. I will start playing the system in June, I hope its profitable for you before that too!
Today is most likely a play with Cleveland. They are a clear away fav and the line is at 8,5 (opened at 9).
0
Posted:
#36
Plays for 4/20
Late update today. Away from a computer all afternoon.
Watched the lines through lunch. Indians became slight underdogs late morning, but bounced back to a favorite about 30 minutes before game time.
CLE -1.5RL +150 (5Dimes)
Away Favorite CLE -110 ML (MIN 100)
Total >= 8 8.5
Favorite .500 to .550 WP .500
Underdog .410 to .510 WP. .500
Late update today. Away from a computer all afternoon.
Watched the lines through lunch. Indians became slight underdogs late morning, but bounced back to a favorite about 30 minutes before game time.
CLE -1.5RL +150 (5Dimes)
Away Favorite CLE -110 ML (MIN 100)
Total >= 8 8.5
Favorite .500 to .550 WP .500
Underdog .410 to .510 WP. .500
YTD: 2-3 (-0.15u)
0
Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:
About the changes closer to game time (favs becoming dogs, line moving from >=8 to 7,5 etc):
- Are you still going to (in the end of the season) follow the results of the games that you played or just the games that fell under the system?
As from what I see from killersport, the only games so far falling to the system criteria have been:
1. 4/5 Giants Loss
2. 4/18 Mariners Win
- This game total by the way became 8 in the end, making it also a play in my tweaked version of playing just the games with the total 8. Just very difficult to get exactly right plays when I go to sleep hours before gametime.. I think I will give up that extra 10 % in ROI in exchange to be able to play 5 times the amount of games and to win double the money without changing my unit size or bet size. I will start playing the system in June, I hope its profitable for you before that too!
Today is most likely a play with Cleveland. They are a clear away fav and the line is at 8,5 (opened at 9).
About the changes closer to game time (favs becoming dogs, line moving from >=8 to 7,5 etc):
- Are you still going to (in the end of the season) follow the results of the games that you played or just the games that fell under the system?
As from what I see from killersport, the only games so far falling to the system criteria have been:
1. 4/5 Giants Loss
2. 4/18 Mariners Win
- This game total by the way became 8 in the end, making it also a play in my tweaked version of playing just the games with the total 8. Just very difficult to get exactly right plays when I go to sleep hours before gametime.. I think I will give up that extra 10 % in ROI in exchange to be able to play 5 times the amount of games and to win double the money without changing my unit size or bet size. I will start playing the system in June, I hope its profitable for you before that too!
Today is most likely a play with Cleveland. They are a clear away fav and the line is at 8,5 (opened at 9).
Hey Scrivero,
I've been tossing around how I want to track the results. I really want to track the plays because they represent an actual bet at a point in time that the system requirements were met. The closer to game time the better. However, I also want to track when the closing lines meet the system requirements for comparison.
I'm only using the Sports Database to see if there are potential plays for the day. I'll run a query at the end of the season to see how the results compare to previous years. I want to focus on how the system works when betting with live odds. The Sports Database totals have been off a couple times so far, so a couple plays didn't register.
1. They had a total of 7.5 for the LAA pick on 4/5. Based on the most popular books, the total was 8 for the 12 hours up to game time.
2. They had a total of 7.5 for the NYM pick on 4/10. Again, the popular books had a total of 8 all afternoon before game time.
Hopefully, there aren't too many more of these differences. I just hope the research using past data translates well to the current season.
0
Posted:
#39
I'm going to start breaking results into two categories ... actual plays prior to game time versus hypothetical plays based on closing lines.
Actual plays will tell me if the system is working well outside of the Sports Database in real betting situations. Closing line plays will tell me how dependent the system is on betting very close to game time.
Actual Plays
Date Team WP o:WP RL ML Total Result
4/5 SF .500 .500 +135 -123 9.5 LOSS (-1.00u)
4/5 LAA .500 .500 +145 -115 8.0 WIN (+1.45u)
4/10 NYM .500 .500 +120 -140 8.0 LOSS (-1.00u)
4/16 LAA .500 .455 +140 -115 8.5 LOSS (-1.00u)
4/18 MIA .538 .429 +140 -112 8.5 WIN (+1.40u)
4/20 CLE .500 .500 +150 -110 8.5 WIN (+1.50u)
Closing Line Plays
Date Team RL ML Total Result
4/5 SF +155 -105 9.5 No Play - SF underdog or -105/-105 at most books.
4/5 LAA +140 -113 8.0 WIN (+1.4u)
4/10 NYM +110 -142 8.0 LOSS (-1.0u)
4/16 LAA +160 +102 8.5 No Play - LAA underdog at most books.
4/18 MIA +140 -112 8.5 WIN (+1.4u)
4/20 CLE +145 -110 8.0 WIN (+1.45u) - CLE slight favorite at most books.
Actual Plays
YTD: 3-3 (+1.35u)
Closing Line Plays
YTD: 3-1 (+3.25u)
Actual plays will tell me if the system is working well outside of the Sports Database in real betting situations. Closing line plays will tell me how dependent the system is on betting very close to game time.
Actual Plays
Date Team WP o:WP RL ML Total Result
4/5 SF .500 .500 +135 -123 9.5 LOSS (-1.00u)
4/5 LAA .500 .500 +145 -115 8.0 WIN (+1.45u)
4/10 NYM .500 .500 +120 -140 8.0 LOSS (-1.00u)
4/16 LAA .500 .455 +140 -115 8.5 LOSS (-1.00u)
4/18 MIA .538 .429 +140 -112 8.5 WIN (+1.40u)
4/20 CLE .500 .500 +150 -110 8.5 WIN (+1.50u)
Closing Line Plays
Date Team RL ML Total Result
4/5 SF +155 -105 9.5 No Play - SF underdog or -105/-105 at most books.
4/5 LAA +140 -113 8.0 WIN (+1.4u)
4/10 NYM +110 -142 8.0 LOSS (-1.0u)
4/16 LAA +160 +102 8.5 No Play - LAA underdog at most books.
4/18 MIA +140 -112 8.5 WIN (+1.4u)
4/20 CLE +145 -110 8.0 WIN (+1.45u) - CLE slight favorite at most books.
Actual Plays
YTD: 3-3 (+1.35u)
Closing Line Plays
YTD: 3-1 (+3.25u)
0
Posted:
#42
Plays for 4/21
DET -1.5RL +115 (5Dimes)
Away Favorite DET -142 ML
Total >= 8 8.5
Favorite .500 to .550 WP .533
Underdog .410 to .510 WP. .467
MIA is a very slight favorite at most books and their current Total is 8. Late game, so I will watch a bit longer.
CLE is not a play tonight. Total is holding at 7.
Actual Plays
YTD: 3-3 (+1.35u)
Closing Line Plays
YTD: 3-1 (+3.25u)
DET -1.5RL +115 (5Dimes)
Away Favorite DET -142 ML
Total >= 8 8.5
Favorite .500 to .550 WP .533
Underdog .410 to .510 WP. .467
MIA is a very slight favorite at most books and their current Total is 8. Late game, so I will watch a bit longer.
CLE is not a play tonight. Total is holding at 7.
Actual Plays
YTD: 3-3 (+1.35u)
Closing Line Plays
YTD: 3-1 (+3.25u)
0
Posted:
#44
Sounds good with following the actual plays and the hypothetical real system bets. As the reality is that one wont be able to make the exact right bets at all times because of late line changes. Will be interesting to see how big of a difference there will be in units won/lost in the end.
0
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:
Sounds good with following the actual plays and the hypothetical real system bets. As the reality is that one wont be able to make the exact right bets at all times because of late line changes. Will be interesting to see how big of a difference there will be in units won/lost in the end.
Sounds good with following the actual plays and the hypothetical real system bets. As the reality is that one wont be able to make the exact right bets at all times because of late line changes. Will be interesting to see how big of a difference there will be in units won/lost in the end.
Need to build out my own open/close odds database for better reliability. SDQL shows total at 7.5 on yesterday's MIA play. No book that I saw had a total under 8. Funny thing is the total was showing 8 during the game last night, but was 7.5 this morning. SDQL is a good place to start research and get daily plays, but definitely need to prove systems out with live data.
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