Posted:
#1076
I also like: PHILLY ML. hopefully phillies offense helps lee out, and lee can throw another shutout inning this season.
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MLB RPI SYSTEM
Posted:
#1083
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:
U fuckers didnt believe in verlander/DET??? Im not big on det but Verlander is hot hot hot. J/K guys.
U fuckers didnt believe in verlander/DET??? Im not big on det but Verlander is hot hot hot. J/K guys.
Lately even my opinion plays have kicked ass. close it OUT now OAK!!!!
Luckily though I almost tripled up my OAK bet and still ended positive for a few bucks at the end of the day.
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Posted:
#1087
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:
If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.
If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase.
Okay Bettor, do you keep any records of these teams that fall like different number categories, like home team = 30-40 points and other breakdowns?
It's probably way too late now, but maybe there are patterns here that warrant the other side of a pick. Like chasing road teams when the points are 20-30 or 25-35 or whatever.
I think when the season is over, we might be able add some more plays for next year. We might find a situation where we find "mediocre teams lose to mediocre teams 50% of the time when they are between 20-30" If we can average plus money on each bet, there might be some more profit in it.
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Posted:
#1088
Filters:
1. If the lower RPI has been playing significantly better baseball over the last week or so, do not play the series.
WHAT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY MEAN?
2. Losing streaks. Big losing streaks by better RPI team, dont play series.
WHAT CONSTITUTES A BIG LOSING STREAK?
3. Teams going in obvious opposite directions in the W/L column, I will take the series even if off a Point or max 2 on the rpi.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
4. Injuries. Watch how the teams play for a few days then decide to take a series if a good player has been hurt. The Angels lost Kendry Morales and went on a 10 game winning streak last year. Go figure, so watch.
DOES THIS REALLY MATTER AND HOW CAN YOU EVALUATE INJURIES? WHAT YOU MAY THINK IS GOOD, I MIGHT NOT.
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Posted:
#1089
I get what ur sayin lowkee. And I have thought of this. But my logical thinking always says to "me" (not nec yours or anyone elses logic) that mediocre teams have a tendancy to fall to absolute shit for no reason. Then go on a 6 game winning streak, then play .500 ball the next 6 games, then lose 4 straight. No consistency whatsoever. If you can figure something out, go for it bro.
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Posted:
#1092
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:
I get what ur sayin lowkee. And I have thought of this. But my logical thinking always says to "me" (not nec yours or anyone elses logic) that mediocre teams have a tendancy to fall to absolute shit for no reason. Then go on a 6 game winning streak, then play .500 ball the next 6 games, then lose 4 straight. No consistency whatsoever. If you can figure something out, go for it bro.
I get what ur sayin lowkee. And I have thought of this. But my logical thinking always says to "me" (not nec yours or anyone elses logic) that mediocre teams have a tendancy to fall to absolute shit for no reason. Then go on a 6 game winning streak, then play .500 ball the next 6 games, then lose 4 straight. No consistency whatsoever. If you can figure something out, go for it bro.
I understand, I don't like to bet mediocre teams either. You have for the most part a a total math based system. I just want to know during your subjective part, what do you consider a big losing streak? opposite directions, like lost 9 of 10 vs won 9 of 10?
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Posted:
#1093
Over the past few weeks I have realized that we have some serious degenerate gamblers here. IMO, some of your should try to taper back. Your trying to hit every possible game that might have a potential to win. Fight the urge to play so many games, the odds of you hitting 4 and 5 games every day is so low, you will end spending most of your time chasing your money. Why not pick 1 or 2 stand out games each day and increase your chances of making money.
Of course this is just opinion. I am up over 10k in less than 60 days and I'm happy with that. It just seems like some don't care about making money, but more about finding that next bet.
On another note, if you don't feel good about a game, don't bet it! Don't beat yourself up because they win and you should have bet on them. Trusting your gut is the smartest thing you can do.
Of course this is just opinion. I am up over 10k in less than 60 days and I'm happy with that. It just seems like some don't care about making money, but more about finding that next bet.
On another note, if you don't feel good about a game, don't bet it! Don't beat yourself up because they win and you should have bet on them. Trusting your gut is the smartest thing you can do.
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Posted:
#1094
Quote Originally Posted by irage:
Over the past few weeks I have realized that we have some serious degenerate gamblers here. IMO, some of your should try to taper back. Your trying to hit every possible game that might have a potential to win. Fight the urge to play so many games, the odds of you hitting 4 and 5 games every day is so low, you will end spending most of your time chasing your money. Why not pick 1 or 2 stand out games each day and increase your chances of making money.
Of course this is just opinion. I am up over 10k in less than 60 days and I'm happy with that. It just seems like some don't care about making money, but more about finding that next bet.
On another note, if you don't feel good about a game, don't bet it! Don't beat yourself up because they win and you should have bet on them. Trusting your gut is the smartest thing you can do.
Over the past few weeks I have realized that we have some serious degenerate gamblers here. IMO, some of your should try to taper back. Your trying to hit every possible game that might have a potential to win. Fight the urge to play so many games, the odds of you hitting 4 and 5 games every day is so low, you will end spending most of your time chasing your money. Why not pick 1 or 2 stand out games each day and increase your chances of making money.
Of course this is just opinion. I am up over 10k in less than 60 days and I'm happy with that. It just seems like some don't care about making money, but more about finding that next bet.
On another note, if you don't feel good about a game, don't bet it! Don't beat yourself up because they win and you should have bet on them. Trusting your gut is the smartest thing you can do.
great post.100% correct.
discipline is the key to chase system betting.greed will destroy your bankroll.
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Posted:
#1095
Quote Originally Posted by lowkee00:
I understand, I don't like to bet mediocre teams either. You have for the most part a a total math based system. I just want to know during your subjective part, what do you consider a big losing streak? opposite directions, like lost 9 of 10 vs won 9 of 10?
I think thats part of the system you gotta analyze yourself. Just like capping a game, u analyze it and decide team X is the play. A good example would be the NYY this year. Look @ their results from this season. They werent a normal bet for me earlier this season. Why? Inconsistent. I thot they would pull out of their funk of mediocrity, they did, but I wasnt going to bet them until they did so. I think they had a 6 game losing streak @ 1 pt. Now look @ the NYY, almost a bet everynight for me. Last year I think I always took NYY @ home (not every series), but I didnt this year.
So, just because its a "math" system doesnt mean I dont analyze the games or consistency of how teams are playing. For the most part, the linesmakers make a correct call of whos favored & the proper lines for the ML. You can say its public perspective on how they make the lines but I think it's usually right on.
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Posted:
#1097
Quote Originally Posted by reddevil134:
remember,everytime you decide on a series to bet you are exposing your bankroll to 8-15 unit loss for a 1 unit win.
that is why when filters are added to systems they are added to limit plays thus limiting risk.
the above post is a continuation of my previous post not a response to the previous post.
great job on this system B2W.
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Posted:
#1098
I agree with the management of how many games you wager on and play. I was once one of those people that would look at every game and try to bet every one for the day. I have now realized the hard way it is imposible to do that IMO. You have to pick what you feel is best to win for that day. If you win great, if not move on to the next day. There will always be a better day. In using this system with a bit of wiseness, I have gone from being a 50% win rate or less to a 65% winrate or more over the last 3 weeks. There was only one day when I went 50/50 for the day. It has been hard to stay away from betting everything on the book, but my losses have made me into a much wiser bettor.
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