Bob McCune used to make a line and say, if it's -140, i'll take the favorite, if it's +150, I will take the dog. If we knew an approximate win rate, we can further deduce when a line is more powerful than the right side.
It could help us eliminate serious chases at high juice. thus eliminating a monster game C loss.
Many thanks bettor2win, just trying to offer something to the table here, albeit late to the party.
98% of bettors lose, only 2% win every week in Vegas stats show. I'm sure it's not the same people either. Well, if we are not in that loser category, we're better than most others.
I don't tell people how much they should bet. Garbage. I don't have their bankroll and neither do they mine.
I'm up more that 17U btw. I don't bet the same on every play/series or even game.
I don't make spreadsheets. That's for IT guys. I know how but I got a family. Too much time. Look back at the first post and you figure out the plays and create a spreadsheet then post it here. Only loss was w/ KC (vs MIN) this year and it had relatively low juice btw.
Every year I start with $100 in baseball (I don't think gambling is a great investment. So I came up with this system). Before the DOJ took over BetEd I was up $119. I then started over @ BETDSI with another $100Play it slow and let it grow. Im now in the positive of $345. ALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. I break down the plays. Yeah, there is a high juice factor at times like there will be in PHI this weekend....But use some common sense! Don't bet a lot because the juice will KILL you if lose.
You want a pie chart? Spreadsheet? Make one. The plays this year are all documented for you in this thread.
Goodluck.
Love this post btw.
Continued success my man.
Love this post btw.
Continued success my man.
I don't know why you love his post. I was trying to get some info on the system for refinement and all I get is "i don't tell people how much they should bet. Garbage." wtf does that mean?
why even say 98% of bettors lose? i don't understand the post. I ask some simple pertinent questions and get hit back by an assinine post. that's garbage.
Well, I think it would be a lot of work, but if you really want to...
All the picks for this season can be found in this thread. As for the lines for each game, you can look that up at vegasinsider.com.
I can't really see it being worth such an investment of time and effort though. It's not like you can know for any particular series whether it's more likely to win on the A game, B game or C game, just that it's extremely likely to win on at least one of those games. (49-1 = 98% so far this season). When you win, juice doesn't matter. Now, in spite of bettor2win's warning about high juice, it's actually seemed to me this season that, with the exception of a few series here and there (for instance, the Phillies series that just completed) the juice hasn't really been that bad. If high juice bothers you, I think you could have avoided anything over say -170 for instance (I'm not bothering to look up every series to make sure) and probably still had the vast majority of the series available to play.
By all means though, if you think you can come up with something that would help everybody make more money off of this system, I'd say go ahead and post it. I for one wouldn't criticize, instead I'd appreciate the effort, even if I didn't end up using it.
I am trying to understand this system. If I am correct here, you say there is "heavy juice." What is the average line that you will be laying? I see it so far as you have 31/50 game A plays for a 62% win rate or about -161 line, B plays are 12/18 or -150 and C plays are 4/6 for -150.
I have never used martingale or labby line and will do some research to understand them both better. However, I would like to know/see a chart with somebody's actual result betting these games. At an average of -175 and trying to win 1 unit per each "final conclusion," I see about 8 units of profit total on 74 plays, some very large dollar plays.
At -150 avg line, I see about 17 units of profit. Again some very large "C" bets.
I guess what I am thinking is if the average line is about -180, then this system can never be profitable and your risk of ruin could be very high.
Anybody have a spreadsheet with every play detailed, so we can see actual results, unit and overall roi%?
Well, I think it would be a lot of work, but if you really want to...
All the picks for this season can be found in this thread. As for the lines for each game, you can look that up at vegasinsider.com.
I can't really see it being worth such an investment of time and effort though. It's not like you can know for any particular series whether it's more likely to win on the A game, B game or C game, just that it's extremely likely to win on at least one of those games. (49-1 = 98% so far this season). When you win, juice doesn't matter. Now, in spite of bettor2win's warning about high juice, it's actually seemed to me this season that, with the exception of a few series here and there (for instance, the Phillies series that just completed) the juice hasn't really been that bad. If high juice bothers you, I think you could have avoided anything over say -170 for instance (I'm not bothering to look up every series to make sure) and probably still had the vast majority of the series available to play.
By all means though, if you think you can come up with something that would help everybody make more money off of this system, I'd say go ahead and post it. I for one wouldn't criticize, instead I'd appreciate the effort, even if I didn't end up using it.
It's not 49-1 though, you are losing 2 out of 5 in A games and 2 out of 5 in B games. So if you are doubling up, you are losing more than 1 unit on B games and a s**tload more on C games. so it's really not 49-1, it's 60%.
At 60% winning rate, that line is exactly -150 to break even. If you want to be more specific, I believe the odds of losing a 60% event twice is .60x.60 = 36%. so there is a 64% chance you are going to win a unit after the 2nd or B game.
I will look back to try to put something together with line history. However, if Bettor has a list of teams on what days, that might be much faster. if not, i'll head to vegas insider.
but in reality, 45 of 50 games have won by the 2nd game, which is 90% that the team will have cashed for you before the 3rd game hits. I am not sure what that really means.
I am not sure how to bet these games, but if you Martingale through the C games loss, that C loss could be 20 units, which is massive. Looking forward to tomorrow's plays, I'll be up late doing some research.
Did somebody say this works for NBA?
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