Posted:
#1
Hey guys -
I am the type of player who is always looking for a way to beat the books with not a whole lot of effort and analysis expended. I know, there are many people who say "systems" don't work. However, I do not have the time daily to put in the hours of research necessary to cap every sport and make a profit.
That being said, I am usually looking for different spots in different sports where I can take advantage of historical and situational situations. Two years ago I came up with an NBA Totals System, as some may remember, and hit at about 58% for the year, I believe. Also, I came up with an NCAA basketball system, that hit at about 69%. Very nice profits there.
Finally, I have come up with a baseball system, and I wanted to share it. I started this about two weeks ago, and am 6-0 so far. Here's how it works:
This is an OVER / UNDER MLB Chase System. The goal is to find a series in which two teams have historically produced an inordiante amount of either OVERS or UNDERS. Then, you chase that result to win one unit. So, if two teams have produced 15-5 to the Over over the past 3 seasons, you would chase the OVER. If you lose your first -110 bet, you double up for the next game, to win 1 unit plus the juice and the unit you lost.
Moreover, the goal is to find series in which there has not been 3 in a row of the opposite result that you are chasing. For instance, if Detroit and Tampa Bay have produced 14 OVERS and 6 UNDERS for the last 20 meetings, but 3 of those UNDERS came in a streak one season, and 3 more the next, then that series would be a no play. In this sense, you are betting AGAINST the possibility that the series you pick will be the first time in 20 meetings where the wrong result will occur three times.
My criteria are semi-stringent. For the Last Ten meetings between the teams, the result has to have hit at a 70% clip. For the last 20 meetings, the result has to have hit at a 60% clip. Finally, there can not be an OVER or UNDER result, the opposite of what we are chasing, over 2 games.
So far this year, I am 6-0 on the 6 series I have played, +6 units. I will post my plays here if anyone is interested, and wants to follow along. For today, since there was only one game, I actually relaxed the Longest Streak category, and played a series that has hit 1 three game streak, since its the only series I am playing today. Hopefully, it will still be a winner.
Here's the play:
1: Kansas City @ Minnesota UNDER 8.5 (1/1)
Last 10: UNDER is 7-3 (70%)
Last 20: UNDER is 13-7 (65%)
Largest OVER streak is 3 games
Last 20: UNDER is 13-7 (65%)
Largest OVER streak is 3 games
Remember, no matter how good a play looks, you CANNOT go large on it. Sometimes, I will be playing 4 series on a given day. If you go big and lose, you will have to double up the next game, and have a chance of losing your bankroll. My units are 6% of my bankroll right now (yes this is rather large, but I am trying to build it quickly.)
Good luck if you follow, and I'll be back to update after the game.
0
Wow that was huge !
Hot Forum Topics
