MLB Dog System

I'm going to be posting plays based mostly on the Tony Stoffo dog system. The rules are fairly easy:

1) Eliminate all dogs that are more than +150 (I'll play +150)

2) No plays against any top 20 pitcher from both leagues using Sagarin ratings. At start of season we use final 2016 rankings. I adjusted a little by adding one to NL to replace Fernandez and made AL 21 to include Darvish who wasn't rated top 20 due to IP only.

3) When 2 top 20 pitchers face off, bet the under. I'm doing this on a labby line and will show it.

The original rules called for filtering out betting on any team on a 3 game or more losing streak or against any team on a 3 game or more win streak. I'm ignoring this filter to start the season as the past two Aprils went a combined 36-32. We can adjust if needed as we go along.

Money Management: We will start with a $500 bankroll and FLAT bet 2% of bankroll on each dog play. This number is just for tracking purposes, everyone can bet what they want. Once we gain 25% on bankroll, we adjust our bet size.

I have tested the last 2 Aprils and the results were good (up 58% in 2016 and 18% in 2015). I didn't go further because I had no idea which pitchers would be in the top 20 after 1 month, I figured that is close to the time we will use current year stats.

Let's get this season going!!!

Lets roll!! 

Sunday has every game with a top 20 pitcher so no dog plays. We have two games betting the under. The first game is NYY and TB under 7 -120. We will wait to place the other bet based on the results of this game. That is the Cubs and STL game. 

I can only get the over/under at 6.5 right now. Do I still play it?

I have virtually no idea about MLB, but what I see from the other games is that the difference between U6,5 and U7 in odds is "always" ca 30. That is, e.g. Cubs vs Cardinal U7 is +132 and U6,5 is +102. Miami vs Washington (on monday) U7 is +111 and U6,5 is +142.

Hence, as the NYY vs TB U6,5 is +113, it would be basically the same as the -120 U7 that Dan played. In decimal odds the difference would be exactly 30 (2,13 vs 1,83).

Long story short, I still have no idea about MLB, but Im gonna bet the U6,5 with +113. We just miss the chance of Push, which is most likely "compensated" by the +30 difference in the odds. The +113 of U6,5 could be just a bit bit lower in the value compared to the -120 of U7 but probably very close.

Dan or anyone else can correct me if my assumptions above all totally wrong. I will start learning about MLB now. I start from exactly 0.

Used that system last year,and made a good profit.You will find it to be really hard to win if your a favorite player in baseball.Good luck to us this season danrules

Cubs/STL under 7. I got +112 at my book but lets use +110. $15 to win $16.50 (close enough to $17). 

What did this system do last year?

Where can I find 2016 Sagarin pitching ratings? All the USA Today links are broke.

Good luck  

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/sagarin/2016/nl-pitcher/

STL chokes away a win for us, but we settle for a push.

Busy day in store for Monday. we have 4 games that qualify for betting the under: ATL/NYM, DET/ChiSox, KC/MIN and CLE/TEX. Since we have so many games, I'm going to change the lines up. Each bet on these games will be to win $13. New lines are now:

5-5-5-8, 5-5-5-8, 5-5-5-8, 5-5-5-8

We also have out first dog plays. Looking like Phil, Sea and Tor with Oak a possibility. Will confirm all Monday morning.

Bol to us this season! Thanks dan! Lets do this! 

Big day today.

Philly was supposed to be a play but looks like they are - odds almost everywhere so passing on Philly.

These are all $10 bets: Sea +139, Tor +116 and Oak +102

ATL/NYM under 6.5 +105, $13 bet

DET/ChiSox under 7 +100, $13 bet

KC/MIN under 8 +100, $13 bet

CLE/TEX under 7.5 -105, $13.65 to win $13

Dan

I have not, but that is interesting. Maybe I will track it, just one more thing to track. I may have to cut off what I track for my sanity. lol

ADDING Philly +108, $10 bet

Yes there is only so much you can track and with MLB there are thousands of things to track. Was just curious cause I played no score for the mets game so already cashed the ticket. I'll try to track as well and see how it goes for awhile

Sound good, thanks!

I noticed on my book that it isn't available for every game.

Monday results on UNDER System

ATL/NYM under 6.5 +105, $13 bet -WIN

DET/ChiSox under 7 +100, $13 bet - RAIN

KC/MIN under 8 +100, $13 bet - PUSH

CLE/TEX under 7.5 -105, $13.65 to win $13 - LOSS

YTD: 1-2 (-12.65)

Reconfigured lines

5-5-5-8-10

5-5-5-10

5-5-5-9

5-5

Dan 

Yes sir. 4-1 on the season