Like MrECapps, who I don't understand as a rival, I want to give you a little bit of insight on which numbers my system produces. I want to show you the numbers of today's games, which possibly could be played. Decisions will be made when the F5 odds are available at Pinnacle. As you will see my numbers come up quite close to those of Pinnacle in some matches.
There are 3 possible games today when taking the criterias for choosing possible games into account. Here are the numbers:
1. MIN (Correai) @ CLE (Masterson)
a) offense
- MIN exp runs 3.67, exp win pct 0.53
- CLE exp runs 3.46, exp win pct 0.47
b) starters
- MIN exp ERA 6.10, exp win pct 0.25
- CLE exp ERA 3.50, exp win pct 0.75
c) bullpen
- MIN exp ERA 3.80, exp win pct 0.46
- CLE exp ERA 3.51, exp win pct 0.54
d) overall
- MIN exp runs 3.57, exp win pct 0.38
- CLE exp runs 4.63, exp win pct 0.62
- total exp 8.20 runs
Currently at Pinnacle:
- MIN ML 0.39 (-0.01)
- CLE ML 0.63 (-0.01)
- total 8.0 runs (+0.20)
2. PHI (Burnett) @ TOR (Dickey)
a) offense
- PHI exp runs 3.33, exp win pct 0.25
- TOR exp runs 5.82, exp win pct 0.75
b) starters
- PHI exp ERA 1.70, exp win pct 0.82
- TOR exp runs 3.68, exp win pct 0.18
c) bullpen
- PHI exp ERA 3.76, exp win pct 0.71
- TOR exp runs 5.82, exp win pct 0.29
d) overall
- PHI exp runs 4.00, win pct 0.60
- TOR exp runs 3.67, win pct 0.40
- total exp 7.67 runs
Currently at Pinnacle:
- PHI ML 0.47 (+0.13)
- TOR ML 0.55 (-0.15)
- total 8.50 runs (-0.83)
3. SFG (Vogelsong) @ LAD (Beckett)
a) offense
- SFG exp runs 3.87, exp win pct 0.41
- LAD exp runs 4.68, exp win pct 0.59
b) starters
- SFG exp ERA 4.41, exp win pct 0.36
- LAD exp ERA 3.33, exp win pct 0.64
c) bullpen
- SFG exp ERA 2.19, exp win pct 0.80
- LAD exp ERA 4.32, exp win pct 0.20
d) overall
- SFG exp runs 3.74, exp win pct 0.44
- LAD exp runs 4.05, exp win pct 0.56
- total exp 7.79 runs
Currently at Pinnacle:
- SFG ML 0.42 (+0.02)
- LAD ML 0.60 (-0.04)
- total 7.50 runs (+0.29)
For clarification:
- the away teams overall exp runs is calculated via: away offense exp runs, home starter exp ERA, home bullpen exp ERA
- the away teams overall win pct is calculated via: away offense exp win pct, away starter exp win pct, away bullpen exp win pct
- the home teams overall exp runs is calculated via: home offense exp runs, away starter ERA, away bullpen ERA
- the home teams overall win pct is calculated via: home offense exp win pct, home starter exp win pct, home bullpen exp win pct
- the exp total is calculated via: away and home offense exp runs, away and home starter exp ERA, away and home bullpen exp ERA
Right now I am leaning towards playing the Phillies ML (see above criteria) as the only bet for today. I am waiting until the F5 lines are released to make a final decision.
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