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MLB 4-game system

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Posted: #1
All,
Hope everyone making loots on all the systems out there. For those familiar, I run the post-All-Star baseball system which has been pretty good.  

Well, I have a new one. Didn't do years of research on it but it went 44-0 last season. Here it is: When a team loses 3 straight games, we chase to win one game over the next 4.

2017 teams to use: Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers
 
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Posted: #2
2017 teams to use: Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers


Just to be clear, those are the only teams you will be betting on in this system?

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #3
CKP22,

All the respect in the world for you for your great All-Star baseball system.

Just wondering how you picked the teams for this new system. 3 seasons ago the redsox lost 10 games in a row. 

Can you tell us the criteria for picking the 6 teams you have chosen for this new system?

thanks.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by d_opie:

CKP22,

All the respect in the world for you for your great All-Star baseball system.

Just wondering how you picked the teams for this new system. 3 seasons ago the redsox lost 10 games in a row. 

Can you tell us the criteria for picking the 6 teams you have chosen for this new system?

thanks.

Went off teams that I perceive will be contenders. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least 5 of those squads to qualify for post All-Star this season.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

2017 teams to use: Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers


Just to be clear, those are the only teams you will be betting on in this system?


Yes. Those are the ones I will use. 
 
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Posted: #6
  BOL, I'll be watching with interest.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

  BOL, I'll be watching with interest.

Just have to wait until these teams go on their skids. If you did it on back-to-back losses and chased for 4 last season, it would be 96-1 record for those. 

 
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Posted: #8
Good luck!  Very curious how this turns out.

Those 7+ losing streaks don't happen often for teams with great records.

2016 Nationals:  95-67, second best in MLB, had one 7-gamer.
2013 Cardinals:  97-65, best in MLB, had one 7-gamer.

Then the Indians last year (94-67) didn't have a losing streak over 3 games all season.

Interesting stuff.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers:

Good luck!  Very curious how this turns out.

Those 7+ losing streaks don't happen often for teams with great records.

2016 Nationals:  95-67, second best in MLB, had one 7-gamer.
2013 Cardinals:  97-65, best in MLB, had one 7-gamer.

Then the Indians last year (94-67) didn't have a losing streak over 3 games all season.

Interesting stuff.

Thanks for the research there. We'll see how it goes. Didn't put nearly the time into this as I did the post All-Star system.  Just trying to pick up some extra cash.
 
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Posted: #10
Hi CKP22,

I have a lot of respect for you. I absolutely love your Post All-Star Game strategy. I look forward to it every year. In fact, I can't wait for it to start. I will be watching this new strategy as well, and to be honest, I will probably jump on board. Good luck to everyone this year.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by sabs5000:

Hi CKP22,

I have a lot of respect for you. I absolutely love your Post All-Star Game strategy. I look forward to it every year. In fact, I can't wait for it to start. I will be watching this new strategy as well, and to be honest, I will probably jump on board. Good luck to everyone this year.

Good luck to you as well. We'll see how this one plays out. Hopefully some plays soon.
 
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Posted: #12
I made an Excel program that tracked something very similar last year. Rather than looking at 3 game losses for contenders, I looked at 3 games losses for the entire league, but I looked at 2 parameters. The first parameter was the winning percentage of the chase team when they lost the third straight game, and the second parameter was the RPI difference between the two teams for first game of the chase. The best combination for last year was the chase team having a winning percentage of 52.8 % or higher, and the RPI difference between the two team for the first game of the chase being 0.023 or greater. If you would have started on May 1st, there were about 22 plays for the season. 16 of these wins occurred on game #1, and the other 6 wins came on game #2.

I will back test it for the seasons of 2012 through to 2015 when I have a chance, and I will track it this year as well.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by sabs5000:

I made an Excel program that tracked something very similar last year. Rather than looking at 3 game losses for contenders, I looked at 3 games losses for the entire league, but I looked at 2 parameters. The first parameter was the winning percentage of the chase team when they lost the third straight game, and the second parameter was the RPI difference between the two teams for first game of the chase. The best combination for last year was the chase team having a winning percentage of 52.8 % or higher, and the RPI difference between the two team for the first game of the chase being 0.023 or greater. If you would have started on May 1st, there were about 22 plays for the season. 16 of these wins occurred on game #1, and the other 6 wins came on game #2.

I will back test it for the seasons of 2012 through to 2015 when I have a chance, and I will track it this year as well.

That is good stuff right there.
 
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Posted: #14
While the way with this system may very well be to wait until May before starting, we're going to dive in starting today with the Astros on Game 1 against Royals.
 
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Posted: #15
Ckp22 ,Looking like this is the 3rd and final gm. of this series not st.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Bronco6:

Ckp22 ,Looking like this is the 3rd and final gm. of this series not st.

Doesn't matter when. Chase starts when they lose their 3rd straight game.
 
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Posted: #17
CKP22, 

Thanks for the positive feedback. I'll back check the other seasons when I get a chance. It's going to take some work though. With my work schedule and 2 hours of commuting I'm not sure when I'll get a chance, but it will be on the top of my priority list. 

I dove in today with Houston and we may have a play tomorrow with Cleveland. Hopefully.

I looked at an NHL system that worked quite well this year but it needs to be back tested as well. I was looking at Underdogs Puckline and Favorites straight up. If an underdog lost, but by only 1 goal, then it's a win on the Puckline. The best Home teams were Washington (32-8), Pittsburgh (31-10), Arizona (30-11), Columbus (30-11), and Minnesota (29-12). The best Visiting teams were Carolina (30-10), Montreal (30-11), NY Rangers (30-11), and Edmonton (30-11). If you wagered enough to make just $10 per win, and you started on January 1st, you would have made over $1550 in profit. I'm typing this on the last day of the season some some teams still have their final games to play, therefore some of their records only total 40 and some total to 41.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by sabs5000:

CKP22, 

Thanks for the positive feedback. I'll back check the other seasons when I get a chance. It's going to take some work though. With my work schedule and 2 hours of commuting I'm not sure when I'll get a chance, but it will be on the top of my priority list. 

I dove in today with Houston and we may have a play tomorrow with Cleveland. Hopefully.

I looked at an NHL system that worked quite well this year but it needs to be back tested as well. I was looking at Underdogs Puckline and Favorites straight up. If an underdog lost, but by only 1 goal, then it's a win on the Puckline. The best Home teams were Washington (32-8), Pittsburgh (31-10), Arizona (30-11), Columbus (30-11), and Minnesota (29-12). The best Visiting teams were Carolina (30-10), Montreal (30-11), NY Rangers (30-11), and Edmonton (30-11). If you wagered enough to make just $10 per win, and you started on January 1st, you would have made over $1550 in profit. I'm typing this on the last day of the season some some teams still have their final games to play, therefore some of their records only total 40 and some total to 41.

Thanks again. Totally understand with time. Chasing a 2-year-old around and work didn't allow me time to do a major back test on this one.
 
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Posted: #19
  Ok thanks.
 
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Posted: #20
Are we chasing Cleveland today?
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by sabs5000:

Are we chasing Cleveland today?

Yes. Indians were a Game 1 play Tuesday.
 
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Posted: #22
Tribe!
 
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Posted: #23
Nice win with the Indians today!  Off to a good start!

I was wondering if there were any patterns to how top teams (90+ wins) lose seven straight games, so I quickly reviewed the last four seasons.

Four of the six top teams had their 7-game skid during a road trip.

This system looks strong the last four seasons with 90+ win teams. Just have to be careful if the 4-game chase is part of the same road trip as the initial 3-loss streak.

Keep it going!


Year     Team             Record        Streak Dates        Road/Home
2016     Nationals         95-67            6/18 - 6/25              All 7 road games

2015     Mets               90-72            6/17 - 6/24              All 7 road games

2013     Cardinals         97-65            7/26 - 7/31              All 7 road games

2013     Indians            92-70            6/02 - 6/09              1 home then 6 road games

2013     Dodgers          92-70            5/01 - 5/08              1 home, 3 road, 3 home

2013     Rangers          91-72            9/09 - 9/16              6 home then 1 away
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers:

Nice win with the Indians today!  Off to a good start!

I was wondering if there were any patterns to how top teams (90+ wins) lose seven straight games, so I quickly reviewed the last four seasons.

Four of the six top teams had their 7-game skid during a road trip.

This system looks strong the last four seasons with 90+ win teams. Just have to be careful if the 4-game chase is part of the same road trip as the initial 3-loss streak.

Keep it going!


Year     Team             Record        Streak Dates        Road/Home
2016     Nationals         95-67            6/18 - 6/25              All 7 road games

2015     Mets               90-72            6/17 - 6/24              All 7 road games

2013     Cardinals         97-65            7/26 - 7/31              All 7 road games

2013     Indians            92-70            6/02 - 6/09              1 home then 6 road games

2013     Dodgers          92-70            5/01 - 5/08              1 home, 3 road, 3 home

2013     Rangers          91-72            9/09 - 9/16              6 home then 1 away

Good research there. I am quite familiar with the Rangers one from 2013. Only loss on post All-Star home system since I started tracking in 1999.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Hi nfl_huskers,

During these 7 game losses, were any of the chase teams ever Underdogs and lost by only 1 run so that the losing streak would have ended if the RL was played?
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