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MLB 2 team parlay system

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Posted: #1
Props to Dan for running the NHL 2 team parlay system for the past few years.
Lets have another crack at the MLB.

No back test has been done.

Giants -1.5/Indians -1.5 - Bet $10 to win $33.24
 
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Posted: #2
BOL. Are you doing the same 8 game pre set betting amounts that I used in pucks?
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #3
Good luck Riv , the 8 game MM progression works well if you can get the winners!  are they personal capped games or is there methodology in choosing ? or from your first selections will they always be runlines?
BOL....kill it
 
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Posted: #4
Yes I will be following the same  game MM progression that has been successful in NHL.
I haven't really been thinking much about MLB this year, however after seeing another thread in the SS forum, and some numbers put forward by NFL_huskers,  I am prepared to give the following parlay formula a crack.

1. Take all games with a total of 8 or more.
2. Take the two away teams from selected games that the bookies believe to have the greatest chance of winning ie; shortest odds.
3. If team is favorite play RL, if team is dogged play ML.

Id like to note that at time of placing my bet today that the total at Pinnacle for the Indians/Rangers game was 8.0.

I am not going to backtest, if I drop $740 on this system so be it, currently I do not have time to be back testing as capping the 3 Australian football codes - Rugby League, Rugby Union and AFL are taking up any spare time I have.
 
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Posted: #5
Good luck!  I hope those SDQL lines are accurate. Away favorites with high totals definitely do better with the run line.

FYI ... if you are betting the run line outright in your parlays, you may want to consider an additional filter on winning percentage as the season progresses. The ROI jumps to 12% when the away favorite has a winning percentage of .500 - .550 and the underdog has a winning percentage of .410 - .510.

Pretty much away favorite above .500 and underdog below .500.

Here's the query:

AF and total>=8 and 50<=WP<=55 and 41<=o:WP<=51

Since 2007, it's up 109 units with ROI of 12.0%. Again, assuming the SDQL data is accurate.

Games     RL Record         RL Avg Line    $ RL On    Season
150          70-79 (47.0%)        109.1           -$440        2007
103          49-54 (47.6%)        122.3          +$620        2008
101          48-53 (47.5%)        128.3          +$805        2009
52            25-25 (50.0%)        120.5          +$503        2010
67             5-32 (52.2%)        134.2        +$1,436        2011
84           42-42 (50.0%)        124.4           +$898        2012
48           27-21 (56.2%)        128.8        +$1,326        2013
98           52-46 (53.1%)        130.3        +$2,158        2014
61           35-26 (57.4%)        129.0        +$1,949        2015
115         59-56 (51.3%)        123.5        +$1,667         2016

 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers:

Good luck!  I hope those SDQL lines are accurate. Away favorites with high totals definitely do better with the run line.

FYI ... if you are betting the run line outright in your parlays, you may want to consider an additional filter on winning percentage as the season progresses. The ROI jumps to 12% when the away favorite has a winning percentage of .500 - .550 and the underdog has a winning percentage of .410 - .510.

Pretty much away favorite above .500 and underdog below .500.

Here's the query:

AF and total>=8 and 50<=WP<=55 and 41<=o:WP<=51

Since 2007, it's up 109 units with ROI of 12.0%. Again, assuming the SDQL data is accurate.

Games     RL Record         RL Avg Line    $ RL On    Season
150          70-79 (47.0%)        109.1           -$440        2007
103          49-54 (47.6%)        122.3          +$620        2008
101          48-53 (47.5%)        128.3          +$805        2009
52            25-25 (50.0%)        120.5          +$503        2010
67             5-32 (52.2%)        134.2        +$1,436        2011
84           42-42 (50.0%)        124.4           +$898        2012
48           27-21 (56.2%)        128.8        +$1,326        2013
98           52-46 (53.1%)        130.3        +$2,158        2014
61           35-26 (57.4%)        129.0        +$1,949        2015
115         59-56 (51.3%)        123.5        +$1,667         2016

 good stuff huskers!

 
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Posted: #7
Looks like the Giants and Angels would be run line plays today with that additional filter.

SF is +135 on the -1.5 run line.
     Away favorite, total= 9.5, both teams .500.

LAA is +145 on the -1.5 run line.
     Away favorite, total=8, both teams .500.

Using Bovada lines.

Might have to start tracking these in separate topic to see how it goes this season.
 
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Posted: #8
Great work huskers, much appreciated. That filter you suggest looks like a good idea, and it may even be worthwhile waiting until May before playing this system.

For now I will continue to play as I originally intended as win % doesn't really matter right now.

Yesterday we suffered a loss.

Today's play Giants-1.5/Rockies-1.5, $20 to win $91.86

Current bankroll $730

Due to the great payout we are getting, it could still be possible to lose 2  game series and turn a profit.

Best of luck
 
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Posted: #9
Game 2 - loss $20.

Current bankroll $710.

Today's play GiantsML/Jays-1.5 $30 to win $100.37
 
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Posted: #10
Game 3 - Loss -$30

Current bankroll - $680

Today's play;  LAD-1.5/Cubs-1.5 $50 to win $161.00

Best of luck
 
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Posted: #11
On the road today.

Play is Cubs-1.5/Dodgers-1.5 for $80
 
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Posted: #12
With the great payouts we could stretch it to a10 game series of 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 8x 12x 15x 20x 28x for a $960 bankroll. Win on game 10 would result in a 16 unit profit if the odds are 3-1. Less return but maybe cut out a loss
 
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Posted: #13
Play for Sunday - $120 on Cubs-1.5/Nats-1.5
 
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Posted: #14
This system is going down in flames.

Play for today mets-1.5/As ML
 
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Posted: #15
I dont see it very probable that this would go to the 7th or especially to the 8th game (or even to the 9th, if there were one) without winning. It might happen during the season like with DanRules' NHL system but not in the first one series.

So I am starting to tail right now. Lets win this!

By the way, as I know nothing about MLB (except from Seinfeld that NYY always blow it somehow, maybe George has something to do with it each time, ordering shrinking jerseys etc.).
- So: Is "AS" the same as Arizona Diamnondbacks?

I dont see the abbreviation anywhere else and know other teams starts with an A.

Or is "AS" Houston Astros? Both fit the category of the system.

Let me know as soon as possible so that I will play the right teams :D
 
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Posted: #16
Ok, I went into desperation mode and asked on another forum what "As" could stand for. And its supposedly Oakland Athletics, which makes sense as its a smaller away dog than the Astros or Arizona.

I will tail Mets+Oakland then :) Good luck!
 
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Posted: #17
Whew! Relief!
 
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Posted: #18
What a bad beat in Mets game. A home run in 9th by a guy batting .125. In the last 2 days I've lost this parlay in 9th inning, seatlle yesterday gave up 7 in 9th to lose and I had cavaliers moneyline when they blew a 26 point 4th quarter lead. Maybe I should consider retirement...
 
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Posted: #19
I'm in shock, but I shouldn't be. That's what happens every time I count my chickens before they hatch.
 
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Posted: #20
27 year old rookie with his first career home run. unreal bad beat. 
 
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Posted: #21
That's gambling folks!

I am going to save myself from playing the last game.

It was fun whilst it lasted, lesson learnt - always back test.  I know its only 1 loss, but I feel this early in the season in MLB the oddsmakers have it all wrong, and that is basically the premise of this system.

Dan and NFL huskers have some good ideas going on in other threads so there is still plenty of MLB to get on.


 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

That's gambling folks!

I am going to save myself from playing the last game.

It was fun whilst it lasted, lesson learnt - always back test.  I know its only 1 loss, but I feel this early in the season in MLB the oddsmakers have it all wrong, and that is basically the premise of this system.

Dan and NFL huskers have some good ideas going on in other threads so there is still plenty of MLB to get on.



I wish it had worked! Very true about the backtesting. I have started some systems just to notice later with backtesting that it aint worth playing at all.

Good luck with your future bets and systems!
 
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Posted: #23

Even with back testing a system can run into trouble. All you can do is try your best and use a good MM strategy. It's not easy putting yourself out there with a system and have it get beat up (been there!).

I have no idea if my dog system will work but with flat betting I'm not stressing out about it. I will jump on nfl huskers thread of RL on away faves and one of Cisco's systems.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #24
I don't blame you for pulling the plug. If it doesn't feel comfortable then let it go early.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Even with back testing a system can run into trouble. All you can do is try your best and use a good MM strategy. It's not easy putting yourself out there with a system and have it get beat up (been there!).

I have no idea if my dog system will work but with flat betting I'm not stressing out about it. I will jump on nfl huskers thread of RL on away faves and one of Cisco's systems.

rivermonsyerz:

Appreciate your effort, games could have easily went in your behalf, unfortunately they didn't. Don't give up the ship, come back soon...cappin' MLB in April is no easy chore...take care

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