Leprechaun's MLB Series System

i wasn't trying to imply that you are misleading the masses. I just wasn't sure how the two was different. I didn't think that you can lose 44 units in the span of a week (again no offense). anyways i hope you get this turned around because i'm following this system

Sorry rm...I misread the tone of your post.  I've been a little on edge the last week as you might imagine.  If you're following this system right now, I'd tread very lightly.  This cold streak has been pretty rough.

Leprechaun

Hang in there Leprechaun 

Your foundation is strong. This storm may have washed away your mud walls, but now you will plan again and build those walls again with brick.

Then you will laugh at the storm!

Cheers 

Thanks k-man.  I'll be retooling the money management strategy starting tomorrow/Friday so hopefully we can build this house again.

Leprechaun

Wednesday, July 7 MLB Series System Picks

1a. Sea (-145) to win 3.5 units
1b. Sea RL (+150) risk 1.5 units
2. Angels (+115) risk 3.5 units
3. Boston RL (-130) to win 1 unit
4. Padres (-110) to win 3.1 units
5. Special parlay: Angels (+115)/Sea RL (+150): 1 unit to win 4.3 units

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***Results from July 6***

1. Tex RL (-115) to win 4 units-------------win
2.  Angels (-105) to win 3 units-----------lose 3.2 units
3. Sea (+125) risk 4 units-------------lose 4 units
4. Rockies (-135) to win 2 units----------win

Total for July 6: 2-2, -1.2 units

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***Notes***

Rockies!  That was my first happy gambling moment in a week.  I'm surprised we weren't on the other side of that with the way things are going.  That was the good news...the bad news is that we have been in the red 8 of the last 10 days (I think) AND we have TWO C games today.  As the games have staggered starts, I may change the units on Seattle just before game time.  If there is a change, I'll post it.  Maybe that Rockies game is a sign that things are about to turn for us.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 116-92, -2.9 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 4): 94-6

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

Haven't noticed before, but is this the first time this season you're playing the +1.5 RL? 

Probably not.. I just haven't noticed it before maybe?

Good Luck tonight, tough board!

Cheers 

Yep...it is the first time I've officially played it.  I've done it several times on my own personal plays for the system but usually just post the dog.  I don't like this play particularly with a banged up Red Sox team, but I'll follow the system.  Let's hope they can pull it off!

Leprechaun

Thursday, July 8 MLB Series System Picks

1. Angels (+110): see note below
2. Padres (-145): see note below

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***Results from July 7***

1a. Sea (-145) to win 3.5 units------lose 5.1 units
1b. Sea RL (+150) risk 1.5 units----------lose 1.5 units
2. Angels (+115) risk 3.5 units-------------lose 3.5 units
3. Boston RL (-130) to win 1 unit------------------lose 1.3 units
4. Padres (-110) to win 3.1 units--------------------lose 3.4 units
5. Special parlay: Angels (+115)/Sea RL (+150): lose 1 unit

Total for July 7: 0-5, -15.8 units

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***Notes***

Got paid back for the Rockies and then some.  While we haven't gone bust...I'd say this system can officially be deemed ineffective.  We have too many series losses and our A and B game percentages are too low for us to possibly profit using this money management strategy.  I still believe in the idea and there is a lot to be learned from the experience...but I can't go on in good faith knowing people are following along.  We'll stop here for now.  I'll do some testing and number crunching and be back after the All Star break.  I listed the Angels and SD as teams to play on today but I have not listed any units.  I won't be playing those games but the outcomes will count for SU record (and Angels will count for series record).  In a separate post, I'll list the teams to play for the series starting today and tomorrow...those will count towards our series record only but I won't be playing them.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 116-97, -18.7 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 4): 94-6

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back in a few days,

Leprechaun

Thursday/Friday July 8/9 MLB Series System Teams

I posted this yesterday on the site (added some teams today) but forgot to post it here.  Here are the series plays for the weekend:

1. Texas (go for 2 wins)
2. TB (won on Thurs)
3. Yanks (won on Thurs)
4. Florida
5. Detroit
6. Angels
7. Milwaukee

These will count towards our series record.  I've been looking hard at the numbers the last couple days and finding many interesting things.  Will definitely be back after the All-Star break to continue this system.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 116-97, -18.7 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 8): 97-8

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Good luck if you're on these this weekend,

Leprechaun

Last Weekend Series Results:

1. Texas-----------loss
2. TB-----------win
3. Yanks-------------win
4. Florida------------------win
5. Detroit-----------------win
6. Angels----------------win
7. Milwaukee---------------win

Notes:  Wow...still can't believe Texas got swept by the Orioles.  Baltimore had won 9 road games all season and then they go and sweep a division leader???  No gambler on the planet could have predicted that.  Those type of losses, while astounding, are much easier to take.  It's impossible to filter that out as a play.  You know there will be a series loss like that once every 2 or 3 years, you just hope you don't get burned by it.  We didn't post any official units for that series but we still count the loss in our record, which has become abysmal.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 118-100, -18.7 units (fixed an error in the SU record)
Overall SERIES record (through July 11): 103-9

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Leprechaun

Some thoughts on the First Half:


Well, our series record is not very good.  I expected about 5-7 losses for the season and we already have 9 at the half way point.  Looking at the losses, we did well on a few of them.  Philly lost twice and both times we only lost about 4 units.  In hindsight, those losses are not that surprising.  The data used, especially early in the season, still contains some results from the previous year (although the current year is heavily weighted).  Philly was an outlier last year with a very strong road record.  Because this system is based on statistics, when you get data points that fall way outside the bell curve, it can screw up analysis.  I should have paid more attention to that because it was also the reason for our loss we had on the Angels.

Looking further into our series losses, there were only 2 that made no sense, even knowing what we know about the teams now.  Texas losing to the Orioles was a long shot of long shots.  I'd play that series again if it came up.  Flukes like that happen and we hope that our MM system takes care of us.  We were lucky not to be playing that series officially.  The other loss that was a big fluke was the Astros sweeping the Cards in St. Louis back in May.  That same week, the Padres swept the Giants, but that isn't too much of a surprise now.  For that series we were victims of the stats not catching up with the reality of this season yet.  We lost a fair amount of units on during that week and that's really how we ended up starting the season in a hole.  The lesson learned for the future is to play things very close to the vest in May, especially on our B and C games.

Probably the biggest mistake I made so far was on the Toronto series.  We were on a hot streak and I came out of the gate too aggresive with units on the A game and B game of that series.  It put us way behind the 8 ball.  We backed off on the next two games but still gave up another 12 or 13 units.  That's too many units to lose on one series.  From this point forward, I'm setting the cap for one series at 15 units.  We'll also change our betting strategy, but that will have to wait for another post.

Now for the positives. We are still winning at least 2 games in an incredible 82% of our home team series (stats posted on site).  On the flip side, our road team percentages are all down from last year.  I've been doing some heavy analysis of the home vs. road stats...the bottom line is that the road series are killing us.  Although just 5 of our series losses have been on road teams, half of the games in those series that go to game B end up at a game C.  For home teams, only about 30% of the B games get through to C level.  What all that means is that for the second half, we'll be putting a much stronger emphasis on our home team series.  Also, looking at the stats we see home teams are behind their average for sweeping.  Going forward, we'll only play 2 games in our road series as the odds shift heavily to the home team winning if they get the first two in a three game series.

The system has shown us what it can do on both ends of the spectrum.  I was extremely disappointed in the last few weeks.  I still believe in the foundation this system is built on, but it is still a learning process.  I think using stats is the best angle for profiting in baseball, it's just difficult to figure out what to do with all the data.  This system is doing okay statistically but we're getting killed on how we bet the games.  As I said in my first post, money management is the key!  Looking back, the major flaw was that we were relying to heavily on our A game win percentage.  I'll be changing the betting strategy slightly starting next Monday.  For this weekend, we'll come out the gates slowly.  This weekend is notorious for strange things happening, as is the week before the break (we should have taken the whole week off!).  We're back in action for Thursday, but we are slowly easing back in.  No doubt the second half of the season will go better.  Let's get things on track.

Leprechaun

Thursday, July 15 MLB Series System Picks

1. Angels (-150) to win 1 unit
2. Atlanta RL (-165) to win 1 unit
3. SF RL (+125) risk 1 unit

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***Notes***

Good to be back at it.  Definitely enjoyed the days off.  I'm sure there are about 2 people following this now and that's it, but we keep going forward.  This system is built on a very solid foundation, but as I said in a previous post, it's a work in progress.  Please check the posts below this one for some stats and thoughts on the first half.  We are easing back in today.  This weekend everything will be played extremely light.  Philly also fits in the system, but we are skipping road teams for the weekend.  That series will still count in our series record but we risk no units on it.  Starting on Monday, we'll get back into things with a modified money management strategy.  I'll be posting more on that in the coming days.  Let's make the second half a success.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 118-100, -18.7 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 11): 103-9

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

Altho not playing it, I am definitely one of your 2 followers, LoL.

Let's get back to having some fun this 2nd Half!

Cheers! 

Friday, July 16 MLB Series System Picks

1. Yanks RL (+110) risk 1 unit
2. SD (-110) to win 1 unit

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***Results from July 15***

1. Angels (-150) to win 1 unit-------------win
2. Atlanta (-165) to win 1 unit--------------win
3. SF RL (+125) risk 1 unit----------------win

Total for July 15: 3-0, +3.3 units

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***Notes***

That's how you get out the gate for the 2nd half!  Nice sweep.  There was a typo yesterday with Atl...I had thought about playing that on the RL and forgot to delete it from the post.  It has been corrected.  Clearly the line posted was the ML and that was a win.  If ever there is doubt, the line will tell you what the play is for sure.  We have just 2 more series to win and then we can relax for the weekend.  Remember, we are going very easy this weekend so we will not go for 2 wins on any series and we will not play any series where we don't start on the A game.  Let's pick up a couple more units and get ready for next week.  If we play our cards right, we should be back in the black in the next 10 days.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 121-100, -15.4 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 15): 106-9

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

Saturday, July 17 MLB Series System Picks

There are no plays for Saturday or Sunday

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***Results from July 16***

1. Yanks RL (+110) risk 1 unit-------------lose 1 unit
2. SD (-110) to win 1 unit------------win

Total for July 16: 1-1, +0.0 units

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***Notes***

Tough luck on the Yanks RL.  We'll be playing a lot more RL's in the 2nd half so we'll live with it.  We are done for the weekend.  For you action junkies out there, the Phillies are a great play for Saturday. Personally, I'll be staying away from them and checking out a few totals.  I'll also try a 2 game chase on Detroit in the double header today.  Good luck, whatever you choose.  Back on Monday.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 121-100, -15.4 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 15): 106-9

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

Monday, July 19 MLB Series System Picks

1. TB (-160) to win 2 units
2. Min RL (+100) risk 2 units
3. Det (-115) to win 1 unit
4. Toronto (-135) to win 1 unit
5. Cinci (-170) to win 1.5 units

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***Notes***

Sorry for the late post.  I've been trying to get the new MM strategy down on paper so I can post it on the site but I keep getting interrupted.  Hopefully by the end of the night I'll have that up, but these are the plays for today either way.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 122-101, -15.4 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 15): 106-9

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

Tuesday, July 20 MLB Series System Picks

1a. Min (-170) to win 2 units
1b. Min RL (+120) risk 1 unit
2. Det (+115) risk 1.2 units
3. Toronto (-115) to win 2 units

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***Results from July 19***

1. TB (-160) to win 2 units--------------win
2. Min RL (+100) risk 2 units------------lose
3. Det (-115) to win 1 unit-------------lose 1.2 units
4. Toronto (-135) to win 1 unit----------lose 1.4 units
5. Cinci (-170) to win 1.5 units----------win

Total for July 19: 2-3, -1.1 units

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***Notes***

Wow...lost 2 games in extras.  I also had Colorado as a side play to make things even more painful.  Oh well, we just lost 1 unit on the day so no real harm done.  I've posted some of the basics of the new unit management strategy on my site...I'll post it here too after I polish it up tomorrow.  Off to play some bar trivia!

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 124-104, -16.3 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 18): 109-9

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

Wednesday, July 21 MLB Series System Picks

1a. Min (-200) to win 2.2 units (DAY GAME!!!)
1b. Min RL (-105) to win 2.2 units
2. Det (-105) to win 1.8 units
3. TB RL (-130) to win 1 unit (DAY GAME!!!!)
4. Dodgers (-130) to win 1 unit

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***Results from July 120***

1a. Min (-170) to win 2 units-----lose 3.4 units
1b. Min RL (+120) risk 1 unit---------lose 1 unit
2. Det (+115) risk 1.2 units-----------lose 1.2 units
3. Toronto (-115) to win 2 units-----------win

Total for July 20: 1-2, -3.6 units

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***Notes***

Wow...new MM system being put to the test right off the bat.  Two home teams going to game C.  Cleveland has killed us lately and Texas absolutely hates this system.  They get swept by Baltimore and then win 5 of 6????  I feel like they are personally taunting me

I'll be out all day today so I hope when I get back to a computer I see some wins for us.  My hopes to get in the black by the end of this week are not looking good.  A good day Wednesday and a decent weekend could make it possible, but we'll take what we can get right now.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 125-106, -19.9 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 18): 109-9

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

whre can i find the new mony mangemt system thanks

gtboy-

Sorry...I was away from computers the entire day yesterday.  Check the first post in this thread, it will point you in the right direction.  I'll be posting the strategy here later today though.  I just had a busy couple days and couldn't get the last little details worked out.  Should have plenty of time this afternoon.

Leprechaun

Thursday, July 22 MLB Series System Picks

1. Min (-170) to win 1.5 units
2. Det (-135) to win 2 units (DAY GAME!!)
3. Yanks RL (-145) to win 1 unit
4. SF (-125) to win 1 unit
5. LAD (-160) to win 1.5 units

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***Results from July 21***

1a. Min (-200) to win 2.2 units-----------win
1b. Min RL (-105) to win 2.2 units-----------win
2. Det (-105) to win 1.8 units---------------win
3. TB RL (-130) to win 1 unit--------lose 1.3 units
4. Dodgers (-130) to win 1 unit----------win

Total for July 21: 3-1, +5.9 units

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***Notes***

I had a crazy day yesterday and was pretty happy to get home and see we came so close to sweeping the board.  TB just couldn't keep the lead for us.  If today goes well, we'll be guaranteed to stay in the positive for the week.  I've been crunching a lot of numbers lately and I'm very excited about our new strategy.  I'll be posting much more on that later today, still working on a few small details.

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****Record***

Overall SU record: 128-107, -14 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 21): 114-9

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Good luck,

Leprechaun

***New Unit Management System***

For the rest of the season, we are putting a new unit management strategy in place.  This strategy has been tailored specifically for this system, though I think it might work well for any 3 game chase.  The biggest difference in this method from others I've seen is we will focus on per series profit rather than overall units won or lost on the system at any given time.  I think this is an important element to winning in a chase system that I had not considered before and in this situation the numbers are very heavy in favor of this system.  This is a new strategy and it looks good on paper, but putting it into practice will be the real test.

The first half of this season taught me the problem with using the labourchere method (at least with this system) is that it puts too much emphasis on winning the A game in a series.  If your A game win percentage is low, you push so many units onto your lines that it takes to long to recover and you're constantly waiting for the good run to come (which usually does eventually happen but the amounts can still get out of hand).  I've tried to develop a strategy that spreads the importance of profiting over the first two games of the chase.  Using this method, as long as we can win about 81% of our series in the first two games, we should be able to profit no matter what happens.  For the record, we are winning A or B about 89% of the time for home teams this year and about 77% of the time on road teams.  Even with an average line of -180, we would still profit with that win % if we chased to win 1 unit.  Our average line for A games is closer to -130, so we have a lot of room to play with on these series.This new strategy should tone down the big swings and keep us profiting...the only real downfall would be if we lose a lot of series, but that would be the system failing us, and not our unit management.

Here are The Basics:

We'll play A games for 1-3 units depending on the strength of the play and the line.  B game plays will be our A game losses plus 0.5-1 unit, depending on the line.  This is purely statistical.  The line controls what percentage of 2 game sets we must win to profit given a strategy of betting X units on game A and X+Y units on game B.  C games will generally be played to win back our B game losses.  Any units above and beyond that go into our recovery bank.  Our recovery bank units will be won back 3 ways:

1) By playing games where we go for the second or third win in a series, 2) By adding units specifically for recovery to certain A game or B game plays, or 3) By playing on series where we don't start the chase on the A game.  We have been doing these things all season, I just never made a distinction before in my posts.  That will change and from now on all plays will be listed as Game A, B, C or recovery.  We will keep separate recovery banks for AL home, NL home and road, just as we did with our lines before, although I'll post the recovery bank amounts each day.  If any one recovery bank gets to big, we will adjust and spread losses or wins evenly.

Those are the basics, here are some other rules (in no particular order):

1.  We only play A and B games for road teams from here on out (or atleast until the home team sweep % gets closer to the mean).  We are losing units on road team C games.

2.  Max risk on any road team series will be 10 units total for both games.

3.  For home teams only: Bet for A game will always be between 1 and 3 units, depending on the strength of the play and the line, and we'll never risk more than 5 units.

4. For any game over -180, we'll usually be playing the RL only, with the exception being if the play is for 3 units or more.  In that case, we may put atleast one unit on the ML.  When we get to mid August, there will be a lot of RL plays because the juice will start to get out of control.  I know we'll lose more games but hopefully our MM strategy will get it back for us.  Just to be sure this idea is not costing us units, I'll keep a running total of units saved/lost by playing the RL from now on.  It will be posted along with the record each day.

I made add to this short list later, but this outlines everything pretty well.  There is a real example posted on my blog that follows several teams through this strategy...anyone who is reading this should no where to find that by now. We will do our best to keep our per series profit around 1 unit by the end of the season.  In the beginning, it will fluctuate a lot, but this is about the long term goal.  As I was posting this, we just completed a sweep for the day.  That's getting things going in the right direction!

Leprechaun

thanks