1. Minnesota (-130) to win 4.6 units--------lose 6 units
Total for June 23: 0-1, -6 units
***Notes***
Damn those
twins...ruining our hot streak. We have our first C game in a couple
weeks and now we have to go against the Brewers Ace. Good news is we
got a great line and don't have to risk too much. We take our lumps on
this series and just risk 4 units today. A win is great and even with a
loss we are just down a couple units for the week. Btw...anybody
notice that all the teams we played on Tuesday won again? It doesn't
mean anything really, but besides Minny, all the series the system was
on will win at least 2 to start the week. I like to see that...but I'd
rather see the twins win today. For non-system, still on TB today and
also gonna take Atlanta and SF.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 98-67, +48.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 20): 74-4
Good Luck,
Leprechaun
Thursday, June 24 MLB Series System Picks
1. Minnesota (+155) risk 4 units (DAY GAME!!!)
***Results from June 23***
1. Minnesota (-130) to win 4.6 units--------lose 6 units
Total for June 23: 0-1, -6 units
***Notes***
Damn those
twins...ruining our hot streak. We have our first C game in a couple
weeks and now we have to go against the Brewers Ace. Good news is we
got a great line and don't have to risk too much. We take our lumps on
this series and just risk 4 units today. A win is great and even with a
loss we are just down a couple units for the week. Btw...anybody
notice that all the teams we played on Tuesday won again? It doesn't
mean anything really, but besides Minny, all the series the system was
on will win at least 2 to start the week. I like to see that...but I'd
rather see the twins win today. For non-system, still on TB today and
also gonna take Atlanta and SF.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 98-67, +48.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 20): 74-4
1. Atlanta (-160) to win 2.4 units 2. Cards (+135) risk 2.5
units 3. Oak (-175) to win 2 units 4. Tampa (-190) to win 2 units 5.
Texas RL (-140) to win 1 unit (staying away from the ML but play it if
you want)
***Results from June 24***
1. Minnesota (+155) risk 4 units-------lose 4 units
Total for June 24: 0-1, -4 units
***Notes***
We had our 5th system loss of the season...this one cost us a little
bit, but didn't hurt us too bad. We are down just 1 unit for the week.
I'll can live with that. Nice to have a big fat cushion, no? Our
money management system has done wonders for protecting us. We'd be
toast if we were doing straight Martingale. If we escape the weekend
unblemished, we could still net double digit units for the week. I'd
like to at least get back over 50 if we can.
Just a heads up...I'll be traveling for a wedding this weekend so posting may be
difficult.
I'll do the best I can to keep things up to date.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 98-67, +44.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 24): 74-5
Good Luck,
Leprechaun
Friday, June 25 MLB Series System Picks
1. Atlanta (-160) to win 2.4 units 2. Cards (+135) risk 2.5
units 3. Oak (-175) to win 2 units 4. Tampa (-190) to win 2 units 5.
Texas RL (-140) to win 1 unit (staying away from the ML but play it if
you want)
***Results from June 24***
1. Minnesota (+155) risk 4 units-------lose 4 units
Total for June 24: 0-1, -4 units
***Notes***
We had our 5th system loss of the season...this one cost us a little
bit, but didn't hurt us too bad. We are down just 1 unit for the week.
I'll can live with that. Nice to have a big fat cushion, no? Our
money management system has done wonders for protecting us. We'd be
toast if we were doing straight Martingale. If we escape the weekend
unblemished, we could still net double digit units for the week. I'd
like to at least get back over 50 if we can.
Just a heads up...I'll be traveling for a wedding this weekend so posting may be
difficult.
I'll do the best I can to keep things up to date.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 98-67, +44.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 24): 74-5
1a. TB (-195) to win 1.5 units 1b. TB RL (+105) risk 1.5 units 2.
Tex RL (-130) to win 2 units 3. Cards (-125) to win 3.3 units
***Results from June 25***
1. Atlanta (-160) to win 2.4 units----------------win 2. Cards
(+135) risk 2.5 units----------------lose 2.5 units 3. Oak (-175) to
win 2 units----------------win 4. Tampa (-190) to win 2
units-----------lose 3.8 units 5. Texas RL (-140) to win 1 unit----------lose
1.4 units
Total for June 25: 2-3, -3.3 units
***Notes***
We're going the wrong way! Don't mind losing to a no-hitter in the
TB game. We're behind the eight ball now though with no real shot at
getting over 50 units again by weeks end. I backed off on the TB
ML...supposed to add another 1.5 units there but want to reduce risk on
this little bad streak. Hopefully they cover the RL. Let's just get
these wins today and get ourselves in the black for the week.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 100-70, +41.5 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 24): 74-5
Good Luck,
Leprechaun
Saturday, June 26 MLB Series System Picks
1a. TB (-195) to win 1.5 units 1b. TB RL (+105) risk 1.5 units 2.
Tex RL (-130) to win 2 units 3. Cards (-125) to win 3.3 units
***Results from June 25***
1. Atlanta (-160) to win 2.4 units----------------win 2. Cards
(+135) risk 2.5 units----------------lose 2.5 units 3. Oak (-175) to
win 2 units----------------win 4. Tampa (-190) to win 2
units-----------lose 3.8 units 5. Texas RL (-140) to win 1 unit----------lose
1.4 units
Total for June 25: 2-3, -3.3 units
***Notes***
We're going the wrong way! Don't mind losing to a no-hitter in the
TB game. We're behind the eight ball now though with no real shot at
getting over 50 units again by weeks end. I backed off on the TB
ML...supposed to add another 1.5 units there but want to reduce risk on
this little bad streak. Hopefully they cover the RL. Let's just get
these wins today and get ourselves in the black for the week.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 100-70, +41.5 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 24): 74-5
1. Minny (-160) to win 2.9 units 2. Cards (-165) to win 2 units 3.
Atl (-110) to win 2 units 4. Cubs (-185) to win 2 units 5. Tor
(-155) to win 4 units 6. White Sox (-120) to win 3 units 7. Philly
(+120) risk 1.5 units
Note:
Lots on the board today gang. At
the airport and heading home...will tally everything tomorrow and add
some thoughts on our great interleague success.
Leprechaun
Monday, June 28 MLB Series System Picks
1. Minny (-160) to win 2.9 units 2. Cards (-165) to win 2 units 3.
Atl (-110) to win 2 units 4. Cubs (-185) to win 2 units 5. Tor
(-155) to win 4 units 6. White Sox (-120) to win 3 units 7. Philly
(+120) risk 1.5 units
Note:
Lots on the board today gang. At
the airport and heading home...will tally everything tomorrow and add
some thoughts on our great interleague success.
1. Minny (-125) to win 4 units 2a. Cubs (-200) to win 2 units
(hate this play even more than I did yesterday) 2b. Cubs RL (+105)
risk 1 units 3. Tor (-115) to win 7 units 4. White Sox (-125) to win 4.5 units 5. Philly (+115) risk
1.5
units 6. Yanks (-160) to win 2.5 units 7. Padres (-120) risk 2
units
Note:
Rough day yesterday in many ways. System had worse day of the year and airport hangups left me stuck in NYC overnight. Finally just made it home. Lots on the line today. Usually we do well
after a bad day. Will update the records later...for now, nap time.
Leprechaun
Tuesday, June 29 MLB Series System Picks
1. Minny (-125) to win 4 units 2a. Cubs (-200) to win 2 units
(hate this play even more than I did yesterday) 2b. Cubs RL (+105)
risk 1 units 3. Tor (-115) to win 7 units 4. White Sox (-125) to win 4.5 units 5. Philly (+115) risk
1.5
units 6. Yanks (-160) to win 2.5 units 7. Padres (-120) risk 2
units
Note:
Rough day yesterday in many ways. System had worse day of the year and airport hangups left me stuck in NYC overnight. Finally just made it home. Lots on the line today. Usually we do well
after a bad day. Will update the records later...for now, nap time.
1. Toronto (-120) to win 5 units 2. Yanks (-150) to win 4 units 3.
SF (-120) to win 3 units (DAY GAME!!!!!) 4. Atlanta (-170) to win 1
unit 5. Special parlay: Yanks RL (+135) and Toronto RL (+125): 1 unit
to win 4.4 units
***Results from June 29***
1. Minny (-125) to win 4 units-------------------win 2a. Cubs
(-200) to win 2 units-----------------win 2b. Cubs RL (+105) risk 1
units--------------win 1.1 units 3. Tor (-115) to win 7
units----------------lose 8.1 units 4. White Sox (-125) to win 4.5
units---------win 5. Philly (+115) risk 1.5
units-----------------win 1.7 units 6. Yanks (-160) to win 2.5
units-----------lose 4 units 7. Padres (-120) risk 2
units----------lose 2.4 units
Total for June 29: 4-3, -1.2 units
***Notes***
Damn...missed the one that mattered! A two out error in the first inning allowed 2 runs to score and that was the difference in the game. That is an enormous
swing...would have put us right back at the 50 unit mark. We actually
had a decent day despite that big loss. I also need to apologize for a
mistake...the SD play on Tuesday was supposed to be SF. That's what
happens when you try to post plays after being awake for 24 straight
hours. It didn't matter in the end as they both lost, but today, the
play is on the Giants. Personally, as a non-system play, I'll still be
on the Padres today. We went too strong on Toronto and now we'll have
to back off. Seems like one series costs us every week. With a few
breaks here and there, we can salvage this week. We'll try a little
parlay today and see if we can get a little back. Let's end June on a
good note.
***I forgot to post this before the SF game started. They are down 5-0 right now so I don't think anyone will mind if I count that loss in the record. It will still count****
Overall SU record: 105-75, +33.1 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 27): 79-5
Good Luck,
Leprechaun
Wednesday, June 30 MLB Series System Picks
1. Toronto (-120) to win 5 units 2. Yanks (-150) to win 4 units 3.
SF (-120) to win 3 units (DAY GAME!!!!!) 4. Atlanta (-170) to win 1
unit 5. Special parlay: Yanks RL (+135) and Toronto RL (+125): 1 unit
to win 4.4 units
***Results from June 29***
1. Minny (-125) to win 4 units-------------------win 2a. Cubs
(-200) to win 2 units-----------------win 2b. Cubs RL (+105) risk 1
units--------------win 1.1 units 3. Tor (-115) to win 7
units----------------lose 8.1 units 4. White Sox (-125) to win 4.5
units---------win 5. Philly (+115) risk 1.5
units-----------------win 1.7 units 6. Yanks (-160) to win 2.5
units-----------lose 4 units 7. Padres (-120) risk 2
units----------lose 2.4 units
Total for June 29: 4-3, -1.2 units
***Notes***
Damn...missed the one that mattered! A two out error in the first inning allowed 2 runs to score and that was the difference in the game. That is an enormous
swing...would have put us right back at the 50 unit mark. We actually
had a decent day despite that big loss. I also need to apologize for a
mistake...the SD play on Tuesday was supposed to be SF. That's what
happens when you try to post plays after being awake for 24 straight
hours. It didn't matter in the end as they both lost, but today, the
play is on the Giants. Personally, as a non-system play, I'll still be
on the Padres today. We went too strong on Toronto and now we'll have
to back off. Seems like one series costs us every week. With a few
breaks here and there, we can salvage this week. We'll try a little
parlay today and see if we can get a little back. Let's end June on a
good note.
***I forgot to post this before the SF game started. They are down 5-0 right now so I don't think anyone will mind if I count that loss in the record. It will still count****
1. Yanks RL (-165) to win 2.5 units (DAY GAME!!) 2. Toronto
(-130) to win 4 units (DAY GAME!!!) 3. Padres RL (-115) to win 1.5
units 4. Colorado (-140) to win 2 units 5. Philly (-190) to win 1
unit
***Results from June 30***
1. Toronto (-120) to win 5 units---------lose 6 units 2. Yanks
(-150) to win 4 units----------lose 6 units 3. SF (-120) to win 3
units-------------lose 3.6 units 4. Atlanta (-170) to win 1
unit-----------win 5. Special parlay: Yanks RL (+135) and Toronto RL
(+125): 1 unit to win 4.4 units-----------lose 1 unit
Total for June 30: 1-4, -15.6 units
***Notes***
Worst two days of the system only 2 days apart. To say I'm
frustrated to give all those units back would be an understatement.
Ruined a monster month of June all in the last few days. As I said in
May when we had a tough run...I will not stop posting or playing the
system. I'll stick things out but it's very tough to keep focused after
a run like we've had. MLB takes no days off, so neither can we. At
least it was all house money but that is of little consolation at this
point.
The Yanks ML is too high and since we are on this bad run we'll just play the RL. We are taking a big loss on that series. Toronto
finishes a 4 game series so they are still a play, but we play it as an A
game as far as units go. I'll readjust the labby lines since we have
some huge numbers on them and we'll start a slow recovery process.
We'll try to keep risk low and make small moves here and there. There
is no chance we can get into the black for this week so lets just try to
stay patient and see what we can get back.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 106-79, +17.5 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
Good Luck,
Leprechaun
Thursday, July 1 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks RL (-165) to win 2.5 units (DAY GAME!!) 2. Toronto
(-130) to win 4 units (DAY GAME!!!) 3. Padres RL (-115) to win 1.5
units 4. Colorado (-140) to win 2 units 5. Philly (-190) to win 1
unit
***Results from June 30***
1. Toronto (-120) to win 5 units---------lose 6 units 2. Yanks
(-150) to win 4 units----------lose 6 units 3. SF (-120) to win 3
units-------------lose 3.6 units 4. Atlanta (-170) to win 1
unit-----------win 5. Special parlay: Yanks RL (+135) and Toronto RL
(+125): 1 unit to win 4.4 units-----------lose 1 unit
Total for June 30: 1-4, -15.6 units
***Notes***
Worst two days of the system only 2 days apart. To say I'm
frustrated to give all those units back would be an understatement.
Ruined a monster month of June all in the last few days. As I said in
May when we had a tough run...I will not stop posting or playing the
system. I'll stick things out but it's very tough to keep focused after
a run like we've had. MLB takes no days off, so neither can we. At
least it was all house money but that is of little consolation at this
point.
The Yanks ML is too high and since we are on this bad run we'll just play the RL. We are taking a big loss on that series. Toronto
finishes a 4 game series so they are still a play, but we play it as an A
game as far as units go. I'll readjust the labby lines since we have
some huge numbers on them and we'll start a slow recovery process.
We'll try to keep risk low and make small moves here and there. There
is no chance we can get into the black for this week so lets just try to
stay patient and see what we can get back.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 106-79, +17.5 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
Thanks dj. It's not too often you get support around these parts when your system is crashing and burning. Not just getting crushed by the system, but this is shaping up to be my worst gambling week of all times. I've been through downturns before so I know the answer is to stay the course. Hopefully we can salvage things a little over the weekend.
Leprechaun
Thanks dj. It's not too often you get support around these parts when your system is crashing and burning. Not just getting crushed by the system, but this is shaping up to be my worst gambling week of all times. I've been through downturns before so I know the answer is to stay the course. Hopefully we can salvage things a little over the weekend.
1. Philly (-145) to win 4 units 2a. Boston (-215) to win 2
units 2b. Boston RL (-120) to win 1 unit 3. Det (-145) to win 3
units 4. Angels (-160) to win 3 units 5. Dodgers (-105) to win 6.
Yanks (-150) to win 3 units (DAY GAME!! Revenge series! If yanks get
swept I'll be forced to commit suicide) 7. Padres (-150) to win 3
units
***Results from July 1***
1. Yanks RL (-165) to win 2.5 units-------------win 2. Toronto
(-130) to win 4 units------------lose 5.2 units 3. Padres RL (-115)
to win 1.5 units---------lose 1.7 units 4. Colorado (-140) to win 2
units----------win 5. Philly (-190) to win 1 unit------------lose
1.9 untis
Total for July 1: 2-3, -4.3 units
***Notes***
I must have really done something to upset the gambling gods. An
epic slide continues. New set of series...so lets hope it turns
around. Lots of plays and many units on the line. Not that I deserve
to post anything extra, but I'll be playing the Mets and Texas as non
system plays. I feel great about the plays today...but of course that
means nothing.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 106-79, +13.2 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
Come on gambling gods...I bow to thee,
Leprechaun
Friday, July 2 MLB Series System Picks
1. Philly (-145) to win 4 units 2a. Boston (-215) to win 2
units 2b. Boston RL (-120) to win 1 unit 3. Det (-145) to win 3
units 4. Angels (-160) to win 3 units 5. Dodgers (-105) to win 6.
Yanks (-150) to win 3 units (DAY GAME!! Revenge series! If yanks get
swept I'll be forced to commit suicide) 7. Padres (-150) to win 3
units
***Results from July 1***
1. Yanks RL (-165) to win 2.5 units-------------win 2. Toronto
(-130) to win 4 units------------lose 5.2 units 3. Padres RL (-115)
to win 1.5 units---------lose 1.7 units 4. Colorado (-140) to win 2
units----------win 5. Philly (-190) to win 1 unit------------lose
1.9 untis
Total for July 1: 2-3, -4.3 units
***Notes***
I must have really done something to upset the gambling gods. An
epic slide continues. New set of series...so lets hope it turns
around. Lots of plays and many units on the line. Not that I deserve
to post anything extra, but I'll be playing the Mets and Texas as non
system plays. I feel great about the plays today...but of course that
means nothing.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 106-79, +13.2 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
1. Phi (-110) to win 4 units 2. Yanks (-165) to win 3 units 3.
Angels (-175) to win 3 units 4. Dodgers (-150) to win 3 units 5.
Detroit (-175) to win 1 unit 6. Special parlay: Yanks RL (+115) and
Angels RL (+115): 1 unit to win 3.6 units
***Results from July 2***
1. Philly (-145) to win 4 units--------------------lose 5.8 units 2a.
Boston (-215) to win 2 units---------------win 2b. Boston RL (-120)
to win 1 unit-----------lose 1.2 units 3. Det (-145) to win 3
units---------------------------win 4. Angels (-160) to win 3
units---------------------lose 4.8 units 5. Dodgers (-105) to win 4
units-------------------lose 4.2 units 6. Yanks (-150) to win 3
units----------------lose 4.5 units 7. Padres (-150) to win 3
units----------------win
Total for July 2: 3-4, -12.5 units
***Notes***
Okay...I've started preparing my will. Yankees get 2 more tries.
Girardi with an indefensible non-move in the 8th for the Yanks
yesterday. Runners at the corners and 2 outs...how do you not put
Rivera in for the 4 out save??!! Hurts. Emotion starting to be a
factor so I'm taking 1 unit off all the plays today to keep things in
check. Don't have much to say. This week can't end fast enough.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 108-84, +0.7 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
Not waving the flag...but it's on the pole,
Leprechaun
Saturday, July 3 MLB Series System Picks
1. Phi (-110) to win 4 units 2. Yanks (-165) to win 3 units 3.
Angels (-175) to win 3 units 4. Dodgers (-150) to win 3 units 5.
Detroit (-175) to win 1 unit 6. Special parlay: Yanks RL (+115) and
Angels RL (+115): 1 unit to win 3.6 units
***Results from July 2***
1. Philly (-145) to win 4 units--------------------lose 5.8 units 2a.
Boston (-215) to win 2 units---------------win 2b. Boston RL (-120)
to win 1 unit-----------lose 1.2 units 3. Det (-145) to win 3
units---------------------------win 4. Angels (-160) to win 3
units---------------------lose 4.8 units 5. Dodgers (-105) to win 4
units-------------------lose 4.2 units 6. Yanks (-150) to win 3
units----------------lose 4.5 units 7. Padres (-150) to win 3
units----------------win
Total for July 2: 3-4, -12.5 units
***Notes***
Okay...I've started preparing my will. Yankees get 2 more tries.
Girardi with an indefensible non-move in the 8th for the Yanks
yesterday. Runners at the corners and 2 outs...how do you not put
Rivera in for the 4 out save??!! Hurts. Emotion starting to be a
factor so I'm taking 1 unit off all the plays today to keep things in
check. Don't have much to say. This week can't end fast enough.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 108-84, +0.7 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
1a. Angels (-175) to win 3 units 1b. Angles (+120) risk 2
units 2. Yanks RL (-105) to win 1 unit
***Results from July 3***
1. Phi (-110) to win 4 units------------win 2. Yanks (-165) to
win 3 units----------win 3. Angels (-175) to win 3
units---------lose 5.3 units 4. Dodgers (-150) to win 3
units----------win 5. Detroit (-175) to win 1
unit----------------win 6. Special parlay: Yanks RL/Angels
RL----------------lose 1 unit
Total for July 3: 4-2, +4.7 units
***Notes***
Finally broke an unbelievable streak of negative days. I guess that
is something positive to dwell on. Also, the Yanks won so I don't have
to kill myself...so I've got that going for me. Angels loss was a 12
unit swing for us and now puts us in danger of losing our 2nd series
this week. Been a very tough road so lets close out the week with a
couple wins and try to focus on moving forward. Happy 4th to all in the
USA!!
****Record***
Overall SU record: 112-86, +5.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
Licking the wounds,
Leprechaun
Sunday, July 4 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Angels (-175) to win 3 units 1b. Angles (+120) risk 2
units 2. Yanks RL (-105) to win 1 unit
***Results from July 3***
1. Phi (-110) to win 4 units------------win 2. Yanks (-165) to
win 3 units----------win 3. Angels (-175) to win 3
units---------lose 5.3 units 4. Dodgers (-150) to win 3
units----------win 5. Detroit (-175) to win 1
unit----------------win 6. Special parlay: Yanks RL/Angels
RL----------------lose 1 unit
Total for July 3: 4-2, +4.7 units
***Notes***
Finally broke an unbelievable streak of negative days. I guess that
is something positive to dwell on. Also, the Yanks won so I don't have
to kill myself...so I've got that going for me. Angels loss was a 12
unit swing for us and now puts us in danger of losing our 2nd series
this week. Been a very tough road so lets close out the week with a
couple wins and try to focus on moving forward. Happy 4th to all in the
USA!!
****Record***
Overall SU record: 112-86, +5.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through June 30): 85-5
Sorry man...that 1b bet was Angels RL. I've made that mistake a few times but if you get use to my posting it will make sense. Totally my mistake. It is not about any previous play...I just forgot to type RL there. For this system, a play is a play on a TEAM. That's why I list it as 1a and 1b. I'm just splitting the play on that team up on the RL b/c the ML is high. I usually reserve that for plays that are -190 or higher or for teams that are in the top 8 in runs scored but if you're following you know that this week was a disaster. In this case, I was just using money management to limit exposure since this play called for 5 units. I'll be doing quite a few RL plays over the next week as I start a recovery process.
One last thing about RL plays that I stated awhile back: for SU record keeping purposes, if we take the RL and the team wins by 1, we alternate counting that as a win or a loss. ie: We had the Red Sox on Saturday and they didn't cover the RL...counted as a win so the next time that happens I'll count it as a loss. Units will count as posted.
Been a long weekend personally (nothing serious...just a lot of party time!) and been a VERY long week gambling wise. Time for a few zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Back sometime Monday night or Tuesday with some stats and thoughts about last weeks debacle.
Leprechaun
P.S. Thanks 6fig! So nice that I've had a couple posts of support through this tough stretch. I appreciate it!
Rm-
Sorry man...that 1b bet was Angels RL. I've made that mistake a few times but if you get use to my posting it will make sense. Totally my mistake. It is not about any previous play...I just forgot to type RL there. For this system, a play is a play on a TEAM. That's why I list it as 1a and 1b. I'm just splitting the play on that team up on the RL b/c the ML is high. I usually reserve that for plays that are -190 or higher or for teams that are in the top 8 in runs scored but if you're following you know that this week was a disaster. In this case, I was just using money management to limit exposure since this play called for 5 units. I'll be doing quite a few RL plays over the next week as I start a recovery process.
One last thing about RL plays that I stated awhile back: for SU record keeping purposes, if we take the RL and the team wins by 1, we alternate counting that as a win or a loss. ie: We had the Red Sox on Saturday and they didn't cover the RL...counted as a win so the next time that happens I'll count it as a loss. Units will count as posted.
Been a long weekend personally (nothing serious...just a lot of party time!) and been a VERY long week gambling wise. Time for a few zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Back sometime Monday night or Tuesday with some stats and thoughts about last weeks debacle.
Leprechaun
P.S. Thanks 6fig! So nice that I've had a couple posts of support through this tough stretch. I appreciate it!
Most of the time, unit size is based on labby lines, however there are times when a series play has high value (meaning we get reasonable lines and/or the system predicts at least 2 wins). In this case, I'll add a unit or two and do a Martingale chase in parallel with the labby units. It has worked in our favor many times but it torched us last week with Toronto for their 1st two games against Cleveland. Those 2 days cost us 14 units when it could have been more like 8 or 9. Anyway...no need to get bogged down in a long discussion about that...the point is that I think figuring out how to bet a system is the most difficult part. I'm working on a post right now that analyzes this and shows the flaw in the current strategy I've been using for money management.
Leprechaun
Hmmm...I guess the answer is "both" in a way.
Most of the time, unit size is based on labby lines, however there are times when a series play has high value (meaning we get reasonable lines and/or the system predicts at least 2 wins). In this case, I'll add a unit or two and do a Martingale chase in parallel with the labby units. It has worked in our favor many times but it torched us last week with Toronto for their 1st two games against Cleveland. Those 2 days cost us 14 units when it could have been more like 8 or 9. Anyway...no need to get bogged down in a long discussion about that...the point is that I think figuring out how to bet a system is the most difficult part. I'm working on a post right now that analyzes this and shows the flaw in the current strategy I've been using for money management.
1a. Detroit (-175) to win 2.5 units (DAY GAME!!!) 1b. Detroit
RL (+115) risk 1 unit 2. Angels (+140) risk 3 units 3a. Tex
(-190) to win 2.5 units 3b. Tex RL (+100) risk 1 unit 4a. Sea
(-200) to win 2.5 units 4b. Sea RL (+100) risk 1 unit
***Results from July 4***
1a. Angels (-175) to win 3 units-----------win 1b. Angles (+120)
risk 2 units-----------win 2.4 units 2. Yanks RL (-105) to win 1
unit-----------lose 1.1 units
Total for July 4: 1-1, +4.3 units
***Notes***
Nice end to a week that was more horrendous than I ever imagined
possible. Now I'm pissed...Toronto is in my cross hairs. We'll
implement a recovery process for the 30 units they cost us. Today will
be a little different as we have some big juice to lay but many units to
get back...that's why we have the RL plays. System is on life support
but still surviving. One more week til the all star break. Let's set a
goal to recover half of last weeks losses.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 113-87, +9.6 units Overall SERIES record
(through July 4): 94-6
Brand new week,
Leprechaun
Monday, July 5 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Detroit (-175) to win 2.5 units (DAY GAME!!!) 1b. Detroit
RL (+115) risk 1 unit 2. Angels (+140) risk 3 units 3a. Tex
(-190) to win 2.5 units 3b. Tex RL (+100) risk 1 unit 4a. Sea
(-200) to win 2.5 units 4b. Sea RL (+100) risk 1 unit
***Results from July 4***
1a. Angels (-175) to win 3 units-----------win 1b. Angles (+120)
risk 2 units-----------win 2.4 units 2. Yanks RL (-105) to win 1
unit-----------lose 1.1 units
Total for July 4: 1-1, +4.3 units
***Notes***
Nice end to a week that was more horrendous than I ever imagined
possible. Now I'm pissed...Toronto is in my cross hairs. We'll
implement a recovery process for the 30 units they cost us. Today will
be a little different as we have some big juice to lay but many units to
get back...that's why we have the RL plays. System is on life support
but still surviving. One more week til the all star break. Let's set a
goal to recover half of last weeks losses.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 113-87, +9.6 units Overall SERIES record
(through July 4): 94-6
1. Tex RL (-115) to win 4 units 2. Angels (-105) to win 3
units 3. Sea (+125) risk 4 units 4. Rockies (-135) to win 2 units
***Results from July 5***
1a. Detroit (-175) to win 2.5 units--------win 1b. Detroit RL
(+115) risk 1 unit----------win 2. Angels (+140) risk 3
units-----------lose 3 units 3a. Tex (-190) to win 2.5
units--------lose 4.8 units 3b. Tex RL (+100) risk 1 unit
---------lose 1 unit 4a. Sea (-200) to win 2.5 units--------lose 5
units 4b. Sea RL (+100) risk 1 unit-------lose 1 unit
Total for July 5: 1-3, -11.3 units
***Notes***
And the hits just keep on coming. This is getting very tough. Sorry
to all those who are following. Formula is holding up for series but
we are getting killed on A games. Now 6-14 the last 8 days. About to make another post to discuss this.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 114-90, -1.7 units Overall SERIES record
(through July 4): 94-6
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Tuesday, July 6 MLB Series System Picks
1. Tex RL (-115) to win 4 units 2. Angels (-105) to win 3
units 3. Sea (+125) risk 4 units 4. Rockies (-135) to win 2 units
***Results from July 5***
1a. Detroit (-175) to win 2.5 units--------win 1b. Detroit RL
(+115) risk 1 unit----------win 2. Angels (+140) risk 3
units-----------lose 3 units 3a. Tex (-190) to win 2.5
units--------lose 4.8 units 3b. Tex RL (+100) risk 1 unit
---------lose 1 unit 4a. Sea (-200) to win 2.5 units--------lose 5
units 4b. Sea RL (+100) risk 1 unit-------lose 1 unit
Total for July 5: 1-3, -11.3 units
***Notes***
And the hits just keep on coming. This is getting very tough. Sorry
to all those who are following. Formula is holding up for series but
we are getting killed on A games. Now 6-14 the last 8 days. About to make another post to discuss this.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 114-90, -1.7 units Overall SERIES record
(through July 4): 94-6
Last week was not just a tough week for the system but my worst gambling week of all times. Looking at how this could have been avoided I don't see much. As a rule, I think that whenever you get beat down you should try to learn something from it. What we learn from this is the flaw in our money management system. While we are very well protected from series losses when there is one in a week, we are relying too heavily on our game A record. Last week we were 5-11 on Game A (and 1-3 yesterday). That pushes a LOT of units onto our labby lines (and would make things even worse with a Martingale) For Game B we were 7-4 on the week. FOUR C games is a crippling number for any chase system unless you've got VERY deep pockets. Even with our labby system, we are leaving dozens of units on our lines and recovering very little. So what we see is the one situation I had not anticipated...an A game percentage that is well below 60%. If that continues, we lose our edge and the system will fail using this money management strategy, despite how well we might do picking series where teams are not swept.
Bottom line is we'll close out these series but we'll have to look at a different way to utilize the power of the information we have. I'm open to any suggestions of course. Sorry to those who have followed...lots ventured, nothing really gained or lost. I suppose that's not bad for half the season.
Leprechaun
Some thoughts on our epic slide:
Last week was not just a tough week for the system but my worst gambling week of all times. Looking at how this could have been avoided I don't see much. As a rule, I think that whenever you get beat down you should try to learn something from it. What we learn from this is the flaw in our money management system. While we are very well protected from series losses when there is one in a week, we are relying too heavily on our game A record. Last week we were 5-11 on Game A (and 1-3 yesterday). That pushes a LOT of units onto our labby lines (and would make things even worse with a Martingale) For Game B we were 7-4 on the week. FOUR C games is a crippling number for any chase system unless you've got VERY deep pockets. Even with our labby system, we are leaving dozens of units on our lines and recovering very little. So what we see is the one situation I had not anticipated...an A game percentage that is well below 60%. If that continues, we lose our edge and the system will fail using this money management strategy, despite how well we might do picking series where teams are not swept.
Bottom line is we'll close out these series but we'll have to look at a different way to utilize the power of the information we have. I'm open to any suggestions of course. Sorry to those who have followed...lots ventured, nothing really gained or lost. I suppose that's not bad for half the season.
rm...look at the dates. You were looking at a chart that shows units won/lost BY WEEK. It says right at the top when it was last updated. What you saw this morning was last updated on 6/28 and did not yet have any units listed for the week ending 7/4.
I STRONGLY resent the implication that I've misrepresented the truth in anyway. I keep tight records, win or lose and I make no illusions about how good or bad things are going. If you followed last week you saw we lost 40.3 units. It's plain as day right on the front page and in this thread. I've updated the chart on the site. Notice that it only goes through 7/4 now and doesn't count yesterday.
Leprechaun
rm...look at the dates. You were looking at a chart that shows units won/lost BY WEEK. It says right at the top when it was last updated. What you saw this morning was last updated on 6/28 and did not yet have any units listed for the week ending 7/4.
I STRONGLY resent the implication that I've misrepresented the truth in anyway. I keep tight records, win or lose and I make no illusions about how good or bad things are going. If you followed last week you saw we lost 40.3 units. It's plain as day right on the front page and in this thread. I've updated the chart on the site. Notice that it only goes through 7/4 now and doesn't count yesterday.
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