This system takes each team's last 10 games and follows the best 2 teams
while fading the bottom 2. The rankings are updated daily using
teamrankings.com's last 10 power rating. All bets are TO WIN a unit of
$20 bucks. I'll be trying to keep it simple for now but filters may come
into play later.
Today's current rankings are
#1 NYY (9-1)
#2 CIN (7-3)
#29 MIA (2-8)
#30 COL (1-9)
2 of those 4 teams are playing today so those are the plays.
NYY -193
CIN -112
Lot's of juice on New York and I like the Cincy play. MIA and COL are off today.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This system takes each team's last 10 games and follows the best 2 teams
while fading the bottom 2. The rankings are updated daily using
teamrankings.com's last 10 power rating. All bets are TO WIN a unit of
$20 bucks. I'll be trying to keep it simple for now but filters may come
into play later.
Today's current rankings are
#1 NYY (9-1)
#2 CIN (7-3)
#29 MIA (2-8)
#30 COL (1-9)
2 of those 4 teams are playing today so those are the plays.
NYY -193
CIN -112
Lot's of juice on New York and I like the Cincy play. MIA and COL are off today.
I did a little backtesting on this and decided to split this up into two systems. First, I want to open things up by adding the #3rd and #28th ranked teams to our system 1 plays. Even with high-juice plays we should still be able to profit on those 7-3 and 3-7 trends. These L10 plays are all to win $20.
L10 Plays 1-1 for -$2.40
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 NYY (10-0)
#2 TEX (8-2) #3 CIN (7-3) #28 SEA (3-7)
#29 MIA (2-8)
#30 COL (1-9)
Also noted in my backtesting was that the 3 worst teams in the Overall Rankings (not L10), CHC, COL, and SD, have rarely won 3 games in a row and have lost a ton of games by 2 or more runs. CHC won 3 in a row twice while losing 27 games by 2 runs or more. COL won 3 in a row once while losing 31 by 2 or more and SD won 2 in a row once while losing 34 by two or more. That means you would have gone 96-4 had you have chased using the -1 run line (a 1-run win by our bottom-3 team being a push) with each loss equaling roughly 11-15 units and the wins equaling 1.5 to 2 or more units. Again, those are are rough numbers but it looks good enough to warrant a try. Therefore, the second part of this system will be to chase these 3 teams to lose by 2 by making our own -1 runline. We do this by playing one unit on the RL and playing the ML to win one unit. A 1-run game results in a push. For tracking purposes, a unit for these plays will be $5 bucks.
Bottom 3 Chase 0-0 for $0
Today's Bottom 3 Chase plays -
PHI (fade COL) PHI ML -205 risk 10.25 to win 5.00 PHI RL -105 risk 5.00 to win 4.76 Total risk = 15.25 to win 9.76
TEX (fade SD)
TEX ML -125 risk 6.25 to win 5.00
TEX RL +126 risk 5.00 to win 6.30
Total risk = 11.25 to win 11.30
CHW (fade CHC)
CHW ML -190 risk 9.50 to win 5.00
CHW RL +107 risk 5.00 to win 5.35
Total risk = 14.50 to win 10.35
That's about it. GL if you're following and questions/comments/suggestions are always welcome.
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I did a little backtesting on this and decided to split this up into two systems. First, I want to open things up by adding the #3rd and #28th ranked teams to our system 1 plays. Even with high-juice plays we should still be able to profit on those 7-3 and 3-7 trends. These L10 plays are all to win $20.
L10 Plays 1-1 for -$2.40
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 NYY (10-0)
#2 TEX (8-2) #3 CIN (7-3) #28 SEA (3-7)
#29 MIA (2-8)
#30 COL (1-9)
Also noted in my backtesting was that the 3 worst teams in the Overall Rankings (not L10), CHC, COL, and SD, have rarely won 3 games in a row and have lost a ton of games by 2 or more runs. CHC won 3 in a row twice while losing 27 games by 2 runs or more. COL won 3 in a row once while losing 31 by 2 or more and SD won 2 in a row once while losing 34 by two or more. That means you would have gone 96-4 had you have chased using the -1 run line (a 1-run win by our bottom-3 team being a push) with each loss equaling roughly 11-15 units and the wins equaling 1.5 to 2 or more units. Again, those are are rough numbers but it looks good enough to warrant a try. Therefore, the second part of this system will be to chase these 3 teams to lose by 2 by making our own -1 runline. We do this by playing one unit on the RL and playing the ML to win one unit. A 1-run game results in a push. For tracking purposes, a unit for these plays will be $5 bucks.
Bottom 3 Chase 0-0 for $0
Today's Bottom 3 Chase plays -
PHI (fade COL) PHI ML -205 risk 10.25 to win 5.00 PHI RL -105 risk 5.00 to win 4.76 Total risk = 15.25 to win 9.76
TEX (fade SD)
TEX ML -125 risk 6.25 to win 5.00
TEX RL +126 risk 5.00 to win 6.30
Total risk = 11.25 to win 11.30
CHW (fade CHC)
CHW ML -190 risk 9.50 to win 5.00
CHW RL +107 risk 5.00 to win 5.35
Total risk = 14.50 to win 10.35
That's about it. GL if you're following and questions/comments/suggestions are always welcome.
Ever considered the fact that it might provide more value to do the oppososite? i.e. - BET ON the bad teams because the market will under value them and BET AGAINST good teams because market overvalues?
Otherwise the juice will kill you eventually.
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Ever considered the fact that it might provide more value to do the oppososite? i.e. - BET ON the bad teams because the market will under value them and BET AGAINST good teams because market overvalues?
You are correct. Yesterday there were a total of 6 plays for the L10 system and 3 plays for the Bottom 3 chase. A full card. Not all teams will be playing every day so there won't always be that many plays. For example, today, the L10 system has 2 plays and the Bottom 3 chase has only 1.
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Quote Originally Posted by slc5610:
So 9 plays today?
You are correct. Yesterday there were a total of 6 plays for the L10 system and 3 plays for the Bottom 3 chase. A full card. Not all teams will be playing every day so there won't always be that many plays. For example, today, the L10 system has 2 plays and the Bottom 3 chase has only 1.
Ever considered the fact that it might provide more value to do the oppososite? i.e. - BET ON the bad teams because the market will under value them and BET AGAINST good teams because market overvalues?
Otherwise the juice will kill you eventually.
Great point, PatrickBateman. Yes, that's true about most of the plays in both of these systems. In the L10 system, most plays are high juice and big public bets. And as for the teams in the Bottom 3 chase, the public is usually fading them also. The value is lost on most picks and these systems try to counter that loss in other ways. In the L10 system, we try to make up for the lost value by playing only the teams that are hot (top 3 L10 records) and fading the teams that are cold (worst 3 L10 records). And as for the Bottom 3 chase, we make up for any lost value in the form of a chase.
This is not the way to cap baseball and if these systems are anything like my other "systems" they will fail miserably. That being said, we're still going to give it a go and try to cash it. Thanks
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Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:
Ever considered the fact that it might provide more value to do the oppososite? i.e. - BET ON the bad teams because the market will under value them and BET AGAINST good teams because market overvalues?
Otherwise the juice will kill you eventually.
Great point, PatrickBateman. Yes, that's true about most of the plays in both of these systems. In the L10 system, most plays are high juice and big public bets. And as for the teams in the Bottom 3 chase, the public is usually fading them also. The value is lost on most picks and these systems try to counter that loss in other ways. In the L10 system, we try to make up for the lost value by playing only the teams that are hot (top 3 L10 records) and fading the teams that are cold (worst 3 L10 records). And as for the Bottom 3 chase, we make up for any lost value in the form of a chase.
This is not the way to cap baseball and if these systems are anything like my other "systems" they will fail miserably. That being said, we're still going to give it a go and try to cash it. Thanks
Correction: PHI won by one run last night and pushed, therefore, it did not win its A bet. The Bottom 3 Chase record should read 4-0 for +54.47. Tonight's play is still an A game and the play on PHI stands as is. Thnx
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Correction: PHI won by one run last night and pushed, therefore, it did not win its A bet. The Bottom 3 Chase record should read 4-0 for +54.47. Tonight's play is still an A game and the play on PHI stands as is. Thnx
Yesterday we had 2 plays that went 1-1 for -$14.40
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 TEX (9-1)
#2 NYY (8-2) #3 OAK (8-2) #28 MIN (3-7)
#29 MIA (2-8)
#30 COL (2-8)
All 6 slots have games today. TEX is hosting COL so TEX is a 2X play.
L10 Plays
TEX x2 -194 NYY -139 OAK +112 CIN -178 TOR +110
Bottom 3 Chase 5-0 for +$54.47
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
PHI -1 (fade COL) (A game) Total risk = 13.65 to win 10.50 lost
All 3 bottom teams (COL, SD and CHC) are playing today. PHI lost their A game to COL last night so we chase COL into TEX for the B game fade. Also, SEA is the underdog in the fade against SD. For these situations where there is no +1.5 to play, we play the ML to win our total.
Bottom 3 Plays
TEX -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 35.28 to win 24.00
SEA +104 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.00 to win 10.40
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 12.15 to win 12.35
Big day for TEX today!
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L10 System 9-7 for -$3.14
Yesterday we had 2 plays that went 1-1 for -$14.40
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 TEX (9-1)
#2 NYY (8-2) #3 OAK (8-2) #28 MIN (3-7)
#29 MIA (2-8)
#30 COL (2-8)
All 6 slots have games today. TEX is hosting COL so TEX is a 2X play.
L10 Plays
TEX x2 -194 NYY -139 OAK +112 CIN -178 TOR +110
Bottom 3 Chase 5-0 for +$54.47
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
PHI -1 (fade COL) (A game) Total risk = 13.65 to win 10.50 lost
All 3 bottom teams (COL, SD and CHC) are playing today. PHI lost their A game to COL last night so we chase COL into TEX for the B game fade. Also, SEA is the underdog in the fade against SD. For these situations where there is no +1.5 to play, we play the ML to win our total.
Bottom 3 Plays
TEX -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 35.28 to win 24.00
SEA +104 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.00 to win 10.40
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 12.15 to win 12.35
Yesterday we had 6 plays that went 3-3 for -$21.26
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 TEX (9-1)
#2 NYM (7-3) #3 OAK (8-2) #28 MIA (2-8)
#29 HOU (2-8)
#30 COL (2-8)
There are some interesting changes to the lineup today. The NYY dropped off our list and now we take the NYM hosting the yanks for plus money. OAK is a big homer today as well. HOU is a new addition going against CLE. Tex is a double play again today with huge juice.
L10 Plays
TEX x2 -254 NYM +136 OAK +130 TOR +141 CLE -110
Bottom 3 Chase 7-0 for +$90.82
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
TEX -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 35.28 to win 24.00 cashed
SEA +104 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.00 to win 10.40 lost
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 12.15 to win 12.35 cashed
All
3 bottom teams (COL, SD and CHC) are playing again today. SEA lost their A
game to SD last night so they get a B game. With $90 bucks banked on this system so far, we now have enough to cover a 3 chase loss.
Bottom 3 Plays
SEA -1 (fade SD) (B game)
Total risk = 23.60 to win 23.10
TEX -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 17.70 to win 8.91
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 14.95 to win 10.55
Go TEX and SEA!!!
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L10 System 12-10 for -$24.40
Yesterday we had 6 plays that went 3-3 for -$21.26
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 TEX (9-1)
#2 NYM (7-3) #3 OAK (8-2) #28 MIA (2-8)
#29 HOU (2-8)
#30 COL (2-8)
There are some interesting changes to the lineup today. The NYY dropped off our list and now we take the NYM hosting the yanks for plus money. OAK is a big homer today as well. HOU is a new addition going against CLE. Tex is a double play again today with huge juice.
L10 Plays
TEX x2 -254 NYM +136 OAK +130 TOR +141 CLE -110
Bottom 3 Chase 7-0 for +$90.82
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
TEX -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 35.28 to win 24.00 cashed
SEA +104 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.00 to win 10.40 lost
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 12.15 to win 12.35 cashed
All
3 bottom teams (COL, SD and CHC) are playing again today. SEA lost their A
game to SD last night so they get a B game. With $90 bucks banked on this system so far, we now have enough to cover a 3 chase loss.
Bottom 3 Plays
SEA -1 (fade SD) (B game)
Total risk = 23.60 to win 23.10
TEX -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 17.70 to win 8.91
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 14.95 to win 10.55
Yesterday we had 6 plays that went 1-5 for -$133.69
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 BOS (8-2)
#2 NYY (7-3) #3 TEX (8-2) #28 CHW (3-7)
#29 MIN (3-7)
#30 MIA (1-9)
Got beat up yesterday. I might try to lab this thing out or something. It needs something. Anyhow, until then, all plays on this system are going to be tracked using $10 risk per play. Also, big plays are now on the RL. Hopefully this will minimize any damage we incur along the way.
L10 Plays
BOS -104 NYY -122 TEX -1.5 -120 MIL +123 CIN -147 TOR +133
Bottom 3 Chase 9-0 for +124.47
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
SEA -1 (fade SD) (B game)
Total risk = 23.60 to win 23.10 cashed
TEX -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 17.70 to win 8.91 lost
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 14.95 to win 10.55 cashed
In contrast to the L10 system, this system has been doing well so far. B game on the TEX play today.
Bottom 3 Plays
TEX -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 52.05 to win 27.50
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 13.20 to win 11.55
SEA +113 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.00 to win 11.30
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L10 System 13-15 for -$158.09
Yesterday we had 6 plays that went 1-5 for -$133.69
Today's L10 Rankings -
#1 BOS (8-2)
#2 NYY (7-3) #3 TEX (8-2) #28 CHW (3-7)
#29 MIN (3-7)
#30 MIA (1-9)
Got beat up yesterday. I might try to lab this thing out or something. It needs something. Anyhow, until then, all plays on this system are going to be tracked using $10 risk per play. Also, big plays are now on the RL. Hopefully this will minimize any damage we incur along the way.
L10 Plays
BOS -104 NYY -122 TEX -1.5 -120 MIL +123 CIN -147 TOR +133
Bottom 3 Chase 9-0 for +124.47
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
SEA -1 (fade SD) (B game)
Total risk = 23.60 to win 23.10 cashed
TEX -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 17.70 to win 8.91 lost
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 14.95 to win 10.55 cashed
In contrast to the L10 system, this system has been doing well so far. B game on the TEX play today.
Bottom 3 Plays
TEX -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 52.05 to win 27.50
ARI -1 (fade CHC) (A game)
Total risk = 13.20 to win 11.55
SEA +113 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.00 to win 11.30
HOU -1 (fade SD) (C game)
Total risk = 37.92 to win 41.60 cashed
WAS -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 20.70 to win 23.40 cashed
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (B game)
Total risk = 20.52 to win 20.79 lost
HOU came through big last night in the C game SD fade and WAS destroyed COL in their B game matchup. Those two reset and we fade the CHC for their C game. They'll be facing a lefty.
Bottom 3 Plays
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.70 to win 14.35
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 12.40 to win 10.40
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (C game)
Total risk = 37.80 to win 43.20
0
Bottom 3 Chase 13-0 for +228.52
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
HOU -1 (fade SD) (C game)
Total risk = 37.92 to win 41.60 cashed
WAS -1 (fade COL) (B game)
Total risk = 20.70 to win 23.40 cashed
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (B game)
Total risk = 20.52 to win 20.79 lost
HOU came through big last night in the C game SD fade and WAS destroyed COL in their B game matchup. Those two reset and we fade the CHC for their C game. They'll be facing a lefty.
Bottom 3 Plays
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.70 to win 14.35
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 12.40 to win 10.40
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (C game)
Total risk = 37.80 to win 43.20
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.70 to win 14.35 push
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 12.40 to win 10.40 cashed
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (C game)
Total risk = 37.80 to win 43.20 cashed
2 wins and a push last night. The NYM squeaked by the CHC to give us a win on our C play. CHC is off today so we have 2 A game plays on WAS and HOU. Also, a correction was made to the record above. The system is 14-0. The actual wins and losses of our 3 teams is 14-9-2. Based on the past data from these 3 teams, I fully expect someone to lose a C game soon, or in their case, win 3 in a row. The cool thing for us is, this system now has banked enough in just 9 days to absorb at least 3 of those C game losses. There's a lot of baseball left so let's keep it going!
Bottom 3 Plays
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.50 to win 14.35
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 12.25 to win 10.75
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Bottom 3 Chase 14-0 for +282.12
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game)
Total risk = 10.70 to win 14.35 push
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 12.40 to win 10.40 cashed
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (C game)
Total risk = 37.80 to win 43.20 cashed
2 wins and a push last night. The NYM squeaked by the CHC to give us a win on our C play. CHC is off today so we have 2 A game plays on WAS and HOU. Also, a correction was made to the record above. The system is 14-0. The actual wins and losses of our 3 teams is 14-9-2. Based on the past data from these 3 teams, I fully expect someone to lose a C game soon, or in their case, win 3 in a row. The cool thing for us is, this system now has banked enough in just 9 days to absorb at least 3 of those C game losses. There's a lot of baseball left so let's keep it going!
Bottom 3 Plays
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.50 to win 14.35
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game)
Total risk = 12.25 to win 10.75
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.70 to win 14.35 push
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game) Total risk = 12.40 to win 10.40 cashed
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (C game) Total risk = 37.80 to win 43.20 cashed
2 wins and a push last night. The NYM squeaked by the CHC to give us a win on our C play. CHC is off today so we have 2 A game plays on WAS and HOU. Also, a correction was made to the record above. The system is 14-0. The actual wins and losses of our 3 teams is 14-9-2. Based on the past data from these 3 teams, I fully expect someone to lose a C game soon, or in their case, win 3 in a row. The cool thing for us is, this system now has banked enough in just 9 days to absorb at least 3 of those C game losses. There's a lot of baseball left so let's keep it going!
Bottom 3 Plays
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.50 to win 14.35
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game) Total risk = 12.25 to win 10.75
What to do now that both our B teams play each other?
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Quote Originally Posted by jonnymega:
Bottom 3 Chase 14-0 for +282.12
Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.70 to win 14.35 push
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game) Total risk = 12.40 to win 10.40 cashed
NYM -1 (fade CHC) (C game) Total risk = 37.80 to win 43.20 cashed
2 wins and a push last night. The NYM squeaked by the CHC to give us a win on our C play. CHC is off today so we have 2 A game plays on WAS and HOU. Also, a correction was made to the record above. The system is 14-0. The actual wins and losses of our 3 teams is 14-9-2. Based on the past data from these 3 teams, I fully expect someone to lose a C game soon, or in their case, win 3 in a row. The cool thing for us is, this system now has banked enough in just 9 days to absorb at least 3 of those C game losses. There's a lot of baseball left so let's keep it going!
Bottom 3 Plays
HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) Total risk = 10.50 to win 14.35
WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game) Total risk = 12.25 to win 10.75
What to do now that both our B teams play each other?
good luck - hope it works out for ya
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