Kreatture's Playbook 2011

As of tonight, I will be keeping a new record. The current record of 182-195 will still be updated and shown until I finally post the spreadsheets, which believe it or not I'm still working on!! It takes awhile to go through all these plays page by page and the first time I did it, I ended up with different numbers than what the tally should be (it said I should be at like $13K, so I know I messed up somewhere), so I had to redo it all. Then about halfway through again I thought of a different way (easier, better tracking) to do it so started over again. and then I've just been too busy with life to do any work on it in the evenings (plus I bought a new PS3 and have been enjoyin that lately!).. but I'll eventually finish it off, sooner than later.

The results were not really all that surprising to myself. Great NHL. Great NBA. Great NCAA. Bad NFL. Bad Props. The current record includes all prop, parley, teaser, futures, in-game, and anything else outside of a straight wager. To no surprise to many of you - these plays are pure crap. The numbers on just straight plays are solid. So I've been doing some thinking and have re-worked my strategies moving forward. This Business is a continual learning process and as I continue to learn and adapt, the better I'll be in the long run.

Therefore, moving forward from here on, there will be no more props, wild parleys, or any other silly wagers of these natures. Now, as you all know, I periodically have a wild night from time to time and end up going a little crazy after a nice steady progression over a couple weeks. I can't guarantee this will stop, altho I will be trying my best to avoid these "swings". I know a few of you respect me, as I do you, and I implore you to please call me out if you see me make some picks of this nature. Help "reel me back in" so to speak. If you go through this thread and take out my 3 single worst days, you would be shocked at what this Bank Total would be sitting at.

Sometimes, once you reach a certain point, you realize you can't go any further. You realize that you need to tear everything down and restart from the bottom and use the things you've learned to climb to a new higher point. This is Life.

"When you're on your way to the next level in your life people won't understand what you're doing."

This is one of my favorite quotes, ever, and is about as honest as it gets.

Tonight, I begin a new chapter.. but the Evolution continues on...




Let's do this shit 

BANKROLL: $9,073.03
OVERALL RECORD: 182-195-11  (48.28%)

INVESTED: $98,450.02
RETURNED: $97,523.05
PROFIT: -$926.97


NHL  (Pinnacle)

Boston Bruins  -0.5 (-107) (regulation)
2% $181.46 to win $169.59

Buffalo Sabres  -0.5 (+125) (regulation)
1% $90.73 to win $113.41


AHL  (Sports Interaction)

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins  -0.5 (+150) (regulation)
1% $90.73 to win $136.10

Portland Pirates  -0.5 (+115) (regulation)
1% $90.73 to win $104.34

Manchester Monarchs  -0.5 (+105) (regulation)
1% $90.73 to win $95.27

Hershey Bears  -0.5 (+100) (regulation)
1% $90.73 to win $90.73


Final Card. I'm heading out for the evening to hear a band. See you tomorrow. 

GL with the tear down and Ultimate re-build.

Haven't had much time to look at sports, picks, etc...  Always try to check in on you and dj though...

Was having some nice things happening on NHL 1st periods but has fallen off track since the Allstar break. 

Cheers

Like the NHL card very much.  Don't understand how Buffalo is losing at home to a Blues squad that is missing Halak.  Bees should be smoking Ottawa, especially with Kaberle in their lineup.

This is the first I've seen of you capping AHL.  Is this completely new, or have you done it in the past?  I confess to a near total ignorance of the league, outside of the Bulldogs.

Looking forward to following you, as always.

Lemaire is fucking amazing.  Should be in a discussion for coach of the year.  Devils on a -137 line should be in serious discussion for capping on any given night for the rest of the season.  I think this team is for real, and it really wouldn't shock me to see them make the playoffs.  They're ten points off after tonight, with 24 games to go.  Carolina and Rangers are both vulnerable.

I think you could be right about NJ- I keep thinking they will fall apart but it looks more unlikely every game. Used to be you could get some sort of win when NJ played whether it be a TT or 1st period or the other team in Reg.  Now it seems you are better off taking NJ or no play at all.

Didn't get the 2-2 split I was hoping for in the AHL tonight.. no worries, we'll get it back next games. Bruins get it done, albeit late.. Was never really on board with the Sabres tonight, but we'll continue to monitor this team.. I expect both the Bruins and Sabres to make me a good chunk of coin over the next 2 months.


In regards to the AHL.. I thought every NHL fan followed their respective AHL team?? As a Kings fan, I've been lucky to follow such a great team in the Monarchs.

I'll be honest, I'll be playing a Chase with these 4 teams from this point onward. These are the class of the League and should result in many wins down the stretch. Check out the AHL website for more info on these teams to confirm their League dominance. Tough spots tonight with all 4 being on the Road, was honestly only hoping for a split to start. Nailed the top team anyway, at the top odds.

Sports Interaction is the only book I am with who carries these games. Not even the great Pinnacle deals with these odds. Because this is a fairly obscure league in terms of betting, their is never enough money on a particular game to cause a shift in the line, which means in the end, Vegas doesn't really care about these games.. so we don't have to worry about any tampering (You're still a freakin Idiot if you don't believe Vegas controls certain games in certain situations..).

I'm also done with betting just Moneylines in hockey. Teams win often enough in Regulation where the plus odds make up for the few OT/SO wins. Pinnacle is the place to get these Regulation odds. Sports Interaction either has no clue, or is even sharper when it comes to these games.. cuz their Regulation odds are complete shit (unless you're backing the +0.5 dog). An example tonight -- Pinnacle had Boston -107 Regulation.. SI had them -140. The other night there was a game I played which was plus money on Pinnacle, but -150 on SI. I'm honestly not sure WHY I'm still with SI.. I've completed my rollover requirement with them after their 100% Deposit match bonus and I have 4.47 times the amount I initially deposited with them. I should cash out and move over to the other book I was recommended to here by OilCountry99, Bet365 (I think? Will have to look back..)

With that being said.. I should probably cash out of Intertops as well and move everything over to Pinnacle. I'm finding less and less reasons to continue with this Book. Don't get me wrong - they're great.. they just don't compare to Pinnacle when it comes to the odds, and their lack of NHL Regulation offers is starting to bug me enough to consider the switch.

There's nothing to really Live wager on right now til MLB begins.. at which point I will invoke the game plan I used the past 2 Seasons. I will share this when the time comes. It's really all about surviving until MLB begins.. It is the easiest sport to cap and should be considered the real moneymaker of every serious handicapper's year.

At the same time, it's the easiest sport to fuck up and dig a deep hole quickly. This will be my 3rd Season for MLB here and to say I am excited for it would be an extreme understatement. Follow the game plan exactly the way it's laid out and you will be very happy.. If you venture out on your own and deviate away from what I lay out, you better be 100% positive in your own game plan. The Systems I use have been proven for a few years now (which is all that really matters when back-testing). I royally fucked up the money management the 1st year, despite a perfect season. I was down over 30 Units in one month despite a perfect record on the Chase.. that is hard to imagine, but easy to do when you don't know how to maximize your money management. So I've been there, done that, learned the lesson.. repeatedly.

You know those movie trailers where they tease the upcoming blockbusters of the summer..



Bring on MLB 2011.. I'll have my bat and glove ready. Until then.. we keep the bankroll afloat. I'll be happy to head into Spring around the 11-12k mark.

Good night 

you realise pinny does have odds for the AHL right?

No.. I have not seen them there. They're not under Hockey.. I looked under all the categories I thought, but I'll look again.

Thanks 

Nevermind.. found them    under USA

I've been tracking them on SI all this time, LoL

The odds suck tho.. hopefully those are just overnight odds cuz all they offer right now are Handicap. I'll check in on it tomorrow before I lock in my plays on Hershey and Manchester.

Thanks 

I follow the Bulldogs, being a Habs fan.  A good team this year, no more. 
https://theahl.com/stats/statdisplay.php?type=standings#

Awww yeah Kreatture, gettin' me pumped for MLB! This next month of waiting hopefully will go by quick!

BANKROLL: $9,015.80
OVERALL RECORD: 184-199-11  (48.04%)

INVESTED: $99,085.13
RETURNED: $98,100.93
PROFIT: -$984.20

Tonight's AHL plays and this afternoon's NHL play will be posted shortly.

BANKROLL: $9,015.80
OVERALL RECORD: 184-199-11  (48.04%)

INVESTED: $99,085.13
RETURNED: $98,100.93
PROFIT: -$984.20

AHL

Hershey Bears  -0.5 (-182) (regulation)
3% $270.47 to win $148.61

Manchester Monarchs  -0.5 (+115) (regulation)
2% $180.32 to win $207.37

NHL

Atlanta Thrashers  -0.5 (+145) (regulation)
1% $90.16 to win $130.73

Tampa Bay Lightning  -0.5 (-109) (regulation)
1% $90.16 to win $82.72

Carolina Hurricanes  -0.5 (+135) (regulation)
1% $90.16 to win $121.72

You're correct Kreatture.

I looked at Pinny for the AHL and as of right now all the picks are ATS and it doesn't look like they have an option for regulation.

Keep GRINDING until Baseball!  Looking forward to it!!!!

NCAAB

Nevada  -9 (-105)
2% $180.32 to win $171.73

Tennessee Volunteers  -5 (-101)
1% $90.16 to win $89.27

Notre Dame Fighting Irish  +4 (-102)
2% $180.32 to win $176.78

Texas Longhorns  -7 (+102)
1% $90.16 to win $91.96

Colorado State Rams  -1.5 (+114)
4% $360.63 to win $411.12

 

Final Card. Have a great day 

BANKROLL: $8,551.76
OVERALL RECORD: 187-206-11  (47.58%)

INVESTED: $100,707.99
RETURNED: $99,259.75
PROFIT: -$1,448.24


AHL

Manchester Monarchs  -0.5 (-111) (regulation)
1% $85.52 to win $77.05

Hershey Bears  -0.5 (-111) (regulation)
1% $85.52 to win $77.05


NCAAB

UCLA Bruins  -2 (+114)
2% $171.04 to win $194.99

At this point I'm becoming great fade material.. I don't really know what's wrong. MLB can't come soon enough.

Happy President's Day to my American friends. That means afternoon sports, gotta love it!

I'll have a few picks up shortly for you to fade! 

Emotional you are. Adversely affects your capping it does.

Thanks Yoda.  LoL

Life's been busy and I haven't been capping games the way I normally do, due to the lack of time.. that's probably why.

I'm hitting 54.94% in NHL and 54.93% in NBA in the Covers Contests Pages, and I only pick the games there that I would actually wager on.

I'm just gonna keep at it and work through it..

The Portland Pirates are a play this afternoon.. game starts in 90 minutes, but Sports Interaction has the AHL lines closed for some reason.. if they don't open up I'll have to play the 'pk' on Pinnacle.

I have a play in all 3 of today's NHL games, as well.

BANKROLL: $8,209.68
OVERALL RECORD: 187-209-11  (47.22%)

INVESTED: $101,050.07
RETURNED: $99,259.75
PROFIT: -$1,790.32

AHL

Portland Pirates  PK (-155)
3% $246.29 to win $158.90

NHL

Florida Panthers  ML (+101)
2% $164.19 to win $165.83

Chicago/St.Louis  Under 5 (+219)
2% $164.19 to win $359.58

Washington/Pittsburgh  Under 5 (+135)
2% $164.19 to win $221.66

 

Sports Interaction doesn't have the AHL odds open for me, is anyone else having this problem? I have to go with the 'pk' on Pinnacle instead of the regulation, which stinks cuz the odds aren't nearly as good. Selling goals in the NHL today. If they push, they push, but the wins are worth way more than the 5.5 (Chi +104, Pit -133). The extra money you make on the wins should offset any pushes which would have won. Now that I say that, I'm sure both these games will finish 3-2..

Fade away people.. fade away.. 

Cheers   

I'm sure Chicago would love to see an Under 5, win or lose.  They have to be concerned about the amount of goals they are letting in, especially in the 3rd.  I do like the Penguins Under.  Without Crosby and Malkin they are a very ordinary team, and Washington always play them tight.

Florida