Jonnymega's 3% a day

02/19


Current Bank $1001.95
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  8-8
BOOK



TODAY'S PLAY:
SJ Sharks -1.5  +120   $30.06


The Colorado Avalanche limp their way into the SJ Shark Tank tonight and the Sharks smell blood. The Avs have been ravaged by injuries of late and have, no doubt, seen better days. In their last 10 games Colorado has gone 1-8-1, a stretch that included the loss of their leading scorer C Matt Duchene (47 points) on Monday at the Great Calgary Massacre of 2011. The Avalanche have allowed 4.1 goals per game and netted only 1.8 during those 10 games and even without the Calgary game, the G/G for the remaining 9 is still 3.55.

The Sharks, on the other hand, have been playing great. They are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and have plenty of momentum going in to this match. During their 10 game run, SJ has a G/G avg of 2.6 and a GA/G of only 1.9. With these two teams clearly heading in opposite directions, the play for the day is on the Sharks to beat the spread.

hey guyz...i'm on these picks "like white on rice" too...

i consider this system/set of picks to actually have started on Jan04 when JM used it in the Challenge thread b4 moving it over here...so for me, I consider this one to be the 41st bet overall.

The first 24 plays using this system, before it officially launched here had a great 62.5% hit rate (15-9) and turned 1000 starting bank into 11612.95 (ie. up a nice 16.13%)

Since this thread opened the picks have gone a "choppy" 8-8, but still has managed to grow the capital a bit to 1164.20.

Overall, the record, after "40 days n 40 plays" is 23-17 (a nice 57.5%) and a very nice/smooth 16.42% earned over 40 days...an average of 0.4% per day and...

 12.3% per month (exceeding, so far, the stated goal of this system)...to generate a non-nerve-wracking 10%/month...so despite the boredom generated by the last 16 days' plays...

TWO BIG THUMBS UP TO THE PICKMEISTER!!!!!...

And for those of you who want to re-boot your 3%-a-Day Systems...if you haven't yet placed this bet...treat the rolling balance as 1164.20...

so bet size is:  34.93 to win 41.92

(and we're 23-17...waiting for the next 41st result)

oops, of course i've got too many digits in there in several places...cuz the old thread started at 10,000....

if reset to $1,000 launch back on Jan04 in the old thread...capital has grown to 1,164.20...for the 16.42% gain (rate of 12.3% per month) i mention

there were 24 bets (15-9) before the 8-8 stretch monitored here...so overall we're 23-17...more inspiring than the choppy recent past with only a $2 gain

Good job, Jonny...with that win, overall record goes to 24-17 (58.54%) and the 1000 account when u started putting on single 3%-of-rolling-bank has turned into1206.12...a 20.612% gain over just 47 days...or 13.16% per month...a hell of a lot better (and way more fun) than a certificate of deposit)...

you have a good knack for picking daily plays, Jonny...I'm happy to tail you on this.

Ray

02/20/11


Current Bank $1,038.02
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  9-8
BOOK



TODAY'S PLAY:

NBA West  +2   -104   $31.14

Grab your popcorn and your favorite Kardashian because the NBA All-Star Game is coming to Hollywood. And just when you need a great story arc, tinsletown doesn't disappoint. The sun is starting to set on Kobe Bryant's career and I'm inclined to think the Black Mamba may want to win his 4th All-Star Game MVP really super bad. With a potential lockout threatening the 2011-2012 season, this might be Scooby's last opportunity to grab a 4th trophy, and what better place to do it than at home with the Staple Center Celebutards cheering you on. Today's play is the West +2 for a -104.

i'd feel more comfortable betting a side in an nba all star game if you could cite a report saying wade was seen hanging out with charlie sheen last night.

Actually, it was me hanging out with the Ma-Sheen last night. That's why the writeup is so short.

Was on that Jonny!!

Three in a row! (now 25 of 42 or a hair under 60%strike rate on the extended record...and 24.2% up on bank over the full 48 days...that's 15%/month)...I'm a beginner at this stuff, and i'm very happy i started tailing you

...let's ride this one thru the 3%-ups and 3%-downs  to a 120%-plus year...

much appreciated,

Ray

02/21/11


Current Bank $1,067.96
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  10-8
BOOK



TODAY'S PLAY:

Pittsburgh Penguins  U5.5   -111  $32.04


The Washington Capitals head to Pittsburgh for the final game of their 5 game road trip. Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back set and those tired legs could equate to tired offenses. Although recent play for the Penguins and Caps has been inconsistent, these teams tighten up defensively when they play each other, with all 3 previous meetings hitting the under. And looking at this year, Pittsburgh has an OU mark of 9-20-11 at home and a 20-37-2 record overall while Washington's away record is an equally astounding 6-23 OU and 16-43 overall. Finally, looking at the last 10 totals, the Penguins are 3-7 and the Capitals are 2-8. With an under 5.5 for a -111, today's play will be the Pittsburgh under.

JM...do you mean

A)  Pittsbugh under 2.5goals, right (not 5.5)?or...do you mean

B)  a game total (Pens+Caps combined) under 5.5?

(I'm guessing the answer is B...)

B) Game Under 5.5

Thanks K!

B) is the correct total.

Beautiful call tonight bud! Good luck again tomorrow!

i bet the total under 5.5, but so did pens under 2.5...so doesn't matter
...four in a row!...that deserves me figuring out these damn smiley things...
and

02/22/11



Current Bank $1,096.82
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  11-8
BOOK



TODAY'S PLAY:

Vancouver Canucks  -1.5  +163  $32.90


The Montreal Canadiens continue their westerly road trip tonight, taking on the Vancouver Canucks, and frankly, it doesn't look good for the Habs. They've already lost the first two games of their roadie, getting outscored 8-1. In fact, the Montreal defense has allowed 31 goals in their last 10 games and 12 in the last 3. With numbers like that, along with a 26th ranked offense that averages only 2.5 G/G, the Habs are Hab-nots. Vancouver, on the other hand, has been awe-inspiring all season. They have the best defense, the best offense, the best PP and the 4th best PK in the league. And don't forget about Bobby Lou. 'Nuck G Roberto Luongo is 7-2-2 with a 1.89 GA/A in his last 9 games and 11-0-3 in his last 14 games at home (1.81 GA/A). Also, the Canadiens are just 1-10 in their last 11 games in Vancity while the Canucks are 11-3-1 in their last 15 games against Montreal overall. With these two teams playing on two entirely different levels, our play on the Vancouver spread.

ur 4 in a row with winning plays...but 19-in-a-row with winning introductions to plays...hope we go over our end-of-month goal tonight!

02/23/11



Current Bank $1,063.92
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  11-9
SPREADSHEET



TODAY'S PLAY:

Philadelphia 76ers  -9.5  $31.92


The Washington Wizards are taking their follies back on the road, meeting up with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight at Wells Fargo Arena. Sporting a road record of 1-27, it's likely the Wiz will add another loss to their already infamous mark. In their last two games, Washington has lost by an average of 21 points while Philadelphia has been flat-out balling after starting their season 3-13. Fab play by Elton Brand and lights-out shooting by Louis Williams and Jodie Meeks has been instrumental in Philly's recent success. Meanwhile, Washington's been getting pelted by boos at their very own Verizon Center for their clunky and dispirited play. Against the spread, the 76ers are 16-10 at home and 35-20-1 overall. Washington, however, is 20-35 ATS this season and a dismal 8-19 on the road. Moreover, the Wizards are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the City of Brotherly Love. And when these teams last met on January 5, the Wiz got slammed 97-109. Today's play is Philadelphia -9.5.

I forgot to mention that the above play is being recorded at a -105. That info can always be found in the spreadsheet.

JM, you mostly stick to the pro sports, right?  How does MLB usually treat you?  Good luck.

So far, yeah, it's been pro sports. Personally, I think there' s lots of good plays out there on the NCAAB though, particularly on double digit dogs. The plays aren't making our system here because I find the plays in the NBA and NHL to have a larger, more relevant data pool and sampling to draw from. As far as MLB, I've never committed this kind of focus towards it. I'm sure a few plays will make our POD once the season gets rolling and hopefully we can continue to make progress on this system when we lose the NBA and NHL plays altogether. Thanks for your comments and any suggestions.