Jonnymega's 3% a day

02/07/11


Current Bank $939.01
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  1-3



TODAY'S PLAY:


Vancouver Canucks -1.5  +122   $28.17


It's a tale of two cities really, in that it's the best of times for Vancouver and the worst of times for Ottawa. The 'nucks lead the NHL with 77 points and are having a banner year. Currently, they're riding a 5 game winning streak where they've outscored their opponents 23-6, netting 14 goals in the 3 games since the All-Star break. The Sens, however, are a total clusterfuck and in complete disarray. They have just 1 win in their last 16 games and that was over the hapless New York Islanders. Right now, Ottawa's 3.23 GAA is 3rd worst in the league while Vancouver's 2.26 is 3rd best in the league. Further, Ottawa's 2.21 GG is 2nd worst and Vancouver's 3.34 is 2nd best. There's really no arguing that the Canucks should win this game. And with a +122 line for the offering of a -1.5, Vancouver begs to be our play for today.

02/08/11


Current Bank $973.37
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  2-3



TODAY'S PLAY:


OKC Thunder  -7  EV   $29.20


The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off back-to-back losses on the road and look to right the ship tonight at Oklahoma City Arena where they will take on the Thunder and their 3-game winning streak. While the Grizz will be playing their 4th game in 5 days, OKC will be well rested having not played since Saturday. Two time All-Star and newly crowned NBA Western Conference Player of the week Kevin Durant (29.0 ppg) should be looking forward to Memphis' visit. KD had 40 points in a 109-100 home win over the Grizzlies a month ago and has averaged 35.3 ppg on 60% shooting in Memphis' last 3 trips to Oklahoma City. In fact, he's had over 30 points in 5 of the last 6 games vs. the Grizzlies. And while Memphis has done well ATS this year, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 contests in OKC and 1-6 in the last 7 overall with the favorite posting an 11-5 mark ATS in the last 16 games. Moreover, the Thunder have beaten the Grizzlies 7 out of the last 10 times by 7 points or more. With the line EV for -7 points, the Thunda will be our play.

gl jonny!

Current Bank $944.17
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  2-4



TODAY'S PLAY:


Detroit Pistons +1  +101   $28.33


That Cleveland lost 25 games in a row is old news by now. They'll try to snap that losing streak when the Pistons roll into C-town tonight. The last time these two teams met, Detroit won 102-92 in the Motor City. Piston Richard Hamilton's status is still unclear for this evening's game, but Richard Stuckey is back from his shoulder injury to join Will Bynum who had a season high 21 points last night against the Spurs. While both teams match up similarly in regards to team offense (DET 94.6 ppg / CLE 94.2 ppg), the Pistons have the edge defensively, allowing 98.6 ppg for 15th best in the league versus Cleveland's hefty 105.5 ppg which is 5th worst in the league. Against the spread, Detroit is a respectable 14-12-1 on the road and 28-23-1 overall. However, the Cavs are 7-14-1 ATS at home (1-8-1in their last 10) and 19-30-3 overall. And in the for-what-its-worth category, Detroit is 4-0 ATS vs a team with a home winning % of less than .400 while Cleveland is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs a team with a winning % below .400. Also, the Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss while the Cavs are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win. With a +1 at a +101, Detroit will be the play for today.

Nice call last night! Looking forward to your pick for tonight. BOL

02/10/11


Current Bank $972.78
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  3-4



TODAY'S PLAY:


Pittsburgh Penguins U5  +116   $29.18


The ascending LA Kings cruise by Pittsburgh tonight while in the midst of their 10-game roadtrip to find a sliding Penguin team that is battered and depleted. C Sidney Crosby is out and so is C Evgeni Malkin. RW Arron Asham and LW Chris Kunitz are both doubtful for tonight's matchup and now LW Matt Cooke is out on suspension. Since Malkin's injury last week, Pittsburgh's only netted one goal in its last 2 games and appear to have lost some of their scoring prowess. With Jonathon Quick tending net for the Kings, the Penguin woes may continue. Our man Jonathon has a 2.14 GAA (4th best), a .921 save % (11th) and 5 shutouts (T-3rd). Quick has been simply awesome lately, winning 5 straight games for Los Angeles. And defensively, the Kings are a very descent 6th in the league, allowing 2.42 GA/G and yielding only 27.6 SOG pg, which is 2nd best in the NHL. Pittsburgh also has a rockin D, with a GA/G avg of 2.26 (2nd). Looking at the trends we notice the Kings have hit the under in the last 7 out of 10 games while the Penguins have hit it in the last 9 of 10. Additionally, the Los Angeles away under is 11-13-1 and 18-28-2 overall while the Pittsburgh home under is 9-19-1 and 18-34-2 overall. With this game threatening to be a low-scoring affair, we'll take the Under 5 for +116 making this the play for the day.

02/11/11


Current Bank $1,006.64
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  4-4



TODAY'S PLAY:


Orlando Magic U191  -111   $30.20


The Orlando Magic host a New Orleans team tonight that has been sucking as of late. They've lost 7 of 8, Ariza and Okafor are out with injury and shooting guard Marco Belinelli has been struggling. Take that turmoil and their 94.89 ppg (25th) and match it up against a stingy Orlando defense that allows only 94.54 ppg (6th) and it appears Nawleans won't be scoring a lot of points tonight.

But the Hornets have a great defense too, allowing opponents only 92.46 ppg (3rd). Looking at the last time these teams met, the game went to OT and the under still hit with the Hornets shooting just 43% from the field and the Magic a blistering 39%. In fact, the under is 7-2 in Orlando's last 9 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 overall. New Orleans trends toward the under as well with a gnarly 9-18 OU record on the road and a 19-35 mark overall. When playing head to head, these two teams have hit the under 11 out of the last 14 times. Today's play will be the U191 for -111.

Not sure if this is obvious, but clicking on the record takes you to a spreadsheet where all the plays are being recorded.

  good luck buddy

Tailing you again tonight.   I'm setting up a labby line for your play of the day.   I hope you'll continue to post so I can share my results using modified labby vs. 3% per play.

Best of Luck

Cool dude! Just be wary, we've already had a 3 game losing streak!

02/12/11

Current Bank $976.44
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  4-5



TODAY'S PLAY:


San Antonio Spurs -6.5  -105   $29.29

The Washington Wizards welcome what is arguably the NBA's best team into the Verizon Center this evening and it won't even be close. The Spurs phoned it in last night in Philly and are sure to bounce back with some authority tonight. Meanwhile, the Wiz may already be looking forward to Cleveland on Sunday night, where they hope to snag their first road win of the season and get their own monkey off their back.

As for this game, Washington is toast. They are without F Al Thornton, F Josh Howard, and now it looks like they may even be without F Rashard Lewis, who is averaging 18.1 points in his last 7 games against the Spurs. Even if 'Sweet Lew' does play, he has tendonitis in his right knee and only scored 3 points on Wednesday. Accordingly, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli and future HOFer Timmay should light it up against the league's 9th worst defense. In the past, the Wizards have averaged only 82.8 ppg during their 10 game losing streak to the Spurs. which has seen San Antone go 9-1 ATS. Washington is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Also, the Spurs boast a most supreme 17-8-1 ATS record on the road opposite the Wiz's subpar 12-14 mark at home. Finally, San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team with a losing record below .400. With a -6.5 pt. spread for a -105 price, I am all over this one.

On this one myself, love it! Enjoy reading your creative write-ups, keep up the good work!

Cheers 

Spreadsheet..cool!

I actually got to jump on this one tonight. Awesome job man! Ending up making it a larger bet than normal since kreatture was all over it as well. Also won a couple decent quarters wagers on it as well. Keep up the great work!!!

02/13/12


Current Bank $1,004.33
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  5-5



TODAY'S PLAY:


Golden State Warriors O218  -101   $30.13


Watch out, Bay Area. Here comes the Oklahoma City Thunder. Led by MVP Candidate Kevin Durant, the Thunder take on Monta Ellis and the Warriors tonight at the Oracle Arena in what promises to be a high scoring blitz.

Durant currently leads the league with 29.1 ppg. Add Russell Westbrook with his 22.5 ppg and an OKC team that are 5th in the league in scoring (104.5 ppg) and Warrior fan is hatin' life, especially when he realizes how much Kevin Durant loves playing Golden State. KD has averaged 33.7 points over his last 10 matchups against a Warrior team defense that allows a pathetic 106.1 points per game (2nd worst). But don't assume Golden State can't win this game. Monta Ellis joins Stephen Curry and a potent Warrior offense that is sure to mac on an OK City defense that is almost as porous as their own (102.6 ppg, 10th worst). Looking at the trends, we notice the over has been predominant, seeing the Thunda go 31-19 OU overall while the Warriors have posted a 17-11 OU record at home. These two fast-breaking teams are all offense and no defense, so expect them to jack up more shots today than a bunch of 19 yr-old Kobe Bryants. With the over set at 218 for a -101, this is our play for today.

Line at 214 now...

gl!

sorry, I had to post early so the line I got was diff. GL

Haven't been around this week

yeah, the line has been all over the place today. It looks like it's going up, right now...

line history

GL and check out matchbook.

looks like its only going up on pinnacle. my bad

12/14/11


Current Bank $974.20
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  5-6



TODAY'S PLAY:


San Antonio Spurs -8  +101   $29.23


The San Antonio Spurs strong arm their way into New Jersey tonight for a St. Valentine's day showdown that could turn into a massacre. The Spurs are well rested after their starters were able to chill during the team's one-armed ass-kicking of Washington Friday night. The Nets, however, have played 3 games over the last 6 days which included a beat down of their own Friday night, courtesy of the New York Knicks, sans Stoudemire. In that game, NJ gave up a staggering 16 3-pointers (47.1%). That's gonna leave a mark when you're trying to counter with an offense that ranks 29th in scoring (92.8 ppg) and 28th in shooting (44.1%). With the Spurs ranked 6th in the league in scoring (103.6 ppg), 4th in FG% (47.3%) and 4th in 3-point shooting (39.5%), NJ had better guard the perimeter a little better than Friday or it's going to be a long night in Newark. Against the spread, the Nets find themselves with a 26-29 mark while San Antonio is 33-19 with an 18-8-1 clip on the road. Head to head, the Spurs are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 matchups with NJ, and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games at the Prudential Center. Today's play is mos def San Antonio -8 for a +101.