Does anyone use Jeff Sagarin's CFB ratings from the USA Today as a guide to calculating their own point spreads? I used it last night on games where the difference was 7 points between the book's spread and Sagarin's spread. I ended up 2-1
Flo Atl +14 won outright 32-31 Eastern Washington covered +28.5 against Nevada 49-24 North Dakota didn't cover +20 against Idaho 45-0
Tonight's play would have been Villanova +4.5 at Temple, but I didn't get a chance to get a wager down.
I'll be updating my program week to week with Sagarin's ratings. If anyone is interested in tailing this, let me know and I'll post some plays.
PS No I have not back tested this. This is the first year I'm doing it.
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Does anyone use Jeff Sagarin's CFB ratings from the USA Today as a guide to calculating their own point spreads? I used it last night on games where the difference was 7 points between the book's spread and Sagarin's spread. I ended up 2-1
Flo Atl +14 won outright 32-31 Eastern Washington covered +28.5 against Nevada 49-24 North Dakota didn't cover +20 against Idaho 45-0
Tonight's play would have been Villanova +4.5 at Temple, but I didn't get a chance to get a wager down.
I'll be updating my program week to week with Sagarin's ratings. If anyone is interested in tailing this, let me know and I'll post some plays.
PS No I have not back tested this. This is the first year I'm doing it.
I skimmed over Ken Massey's site and I am impressed with the wealth of data at one's disposal. Plus I like the links to other sites that provide even more data. Thanks again!!
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I skimmed over Ken Massey's site and I am impressed with the wealth of data at one's disposal. Plus I like the links to other sites that provide even more data. Thanks again!!
Always look into the Schedule Strength and Rank as an added tool not just the difference in rating. Even after one game has been played can mean a team like ( WV) being overvalued ( overhyped) or a team as in( Marsh)being (undervalued) and installed as a dog.
Compare these 2 teams Sagarins ratings and schedule strength and rank Marshall was a 12pt home dog vs overrated West Virginia
After one game which some may think doesnt mean alot..but does imo, Marshall had a 42 point ( schedule) advantage and #1 Rank . Even though they lost the game they played WV tough and did cover ATS. Marshalls loss against Ohio St last wk was more impressive numericly than WV home win last wk. Where they ended up on the chart after that first game proves it.So does the outcome of tonights game. They should have beat WV,, they choked, but still won the money
Hawaii+3 @ Army for Sat Sept 11
Check Hawaii's 34.5 pt Schedule advantage after one game and better yet, they are higher on the power rating chart than Army...alot higher. Its telling you something.
Thats only one variable of reading Sagarins ratings. Make copys of them weekly especially in the NFL and watch the teams ratings schedule and rank fluctuate. Once you get to the end of Nov in the NFL, you will be able to go back to team A's 4 road game opponents ratings for the team on the road and team B's 4 home games opponents ratings for the team thats playing at home. Add it and average it.
Then you can compare team A's average opp power rating with Team B's average opponts rating. Then you have to figure out by how many points team A is winning or losing by to thier opponents average rating and so forth with team B.
Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start.
I could write a book on how to make a line. Talk to me.
Gets complicated...been doing it for years and laughed at for it.
Works for me!
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Always look into the Schedule Strength and Rank as an added tool not just the difference in rating. Even after one game has been played can mean a team like ( WV) being overvalued ( overhyped) or a team as in( Marsh)being (undervalued) and installed as a dog.
Compare these 2 teams Sagarins ratings and schedule strength and rank Marshall was a 12pt home dog vs overrated West Virginia
After one game which some may think doesnt mean alot..but does imo, Marshall had a 42 point ( schedule) advantage and #1 Rank . Even though they lost the game they played WV tough and did cover ATS. Marshalls loss against Ohio St last wk was more impressive numericly than WV home win last wk. Where they ended up on the chart after that first game proves it.So does the outcome of tonights game. They should have beat WV,, they choked, but still won the money
Hawaii+3 @ Army for Sat Sept 11
Check Hawaii's 34.5 pt Schedule advantage after one game and better yet, they are higher on the power rating chart than Army...alot higher. Its telling you something.
Thats only one variable of reading Sagarins ratings. Make copys of them weekly especially in the NFL and watch the teams ratings schedule and rank fluctuate. Once you get to the end of Nov in the NFL, you will be able to go back to team A's 4 road game opponents ratings for the team on the road and team B's 4 home games opponents ratings for the team thats playing at home. Add it and average it.
Then you can compare team A's average opp power rating with Team B's average opponts rating. Then you have to figure out by how many points team A is winning or losing by to thier opponents average rating and so forth with team B.
Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start.
I could write a book on how to make a line. Talk to me.
Gets complicated...been doing it for years and laughed at for it.
Always look into the Schedule Strength and Rank as an added tool not just the difference in rating. Even after one game has been played can mean a team like ( WV) being overvalued ( overhyped) or a team as in( Marsh)being (undervalued) and installed as a dog.
Compare these 2 teams Sagarins ratings and schedule strength and rank Marshall was a 12pt home dog vs overrated West Virginia
After one game which some may think doesnt mean alot..but does imo, Marshall had a 42 point ( schedule) advantage and #1 Rank . Even though they lost the game they played WV tough and did cover ATS. Marshalls loss against Ohio St last wk was more impressive numericly than WV home win last wk. Where they ended up on the chart after that first game proves it.So does the outcome of tonights game. They should have beat WV,, they choked, but still won the money
Hawaii+3 @ Army for Sat Sept 11
Check Hawaii's 34.5 pt Schedule advantage after one game and better yet, they are higher on the power rating chart than Army...alot higher. Its telling you something.
Thats only one variable of reading Sagarins ratings. Make copys of them weekly especially in the NFL and watch the teams ratings schedule and rank fluctuate. Once you get to the end of Nov in the NFL, you will be able to go back to team A's 4 road game opponents ratings for the team on the road and team B's 4 home games opponents ratings for the team thats playing at home. Add it and average it.
Then you can compare team A's average opp power rating with Team B's average opponts rating. Then you have to figure out by how many points team A is winning or losing by to thier opponents average rating and so forth with team B.
Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start.
I could write a book on how to make a line. Talk to me.
Gets complicated...been doing it for years and laughed at for it.
Works for me!
Making your own lines is the way to go for sure. Keep posting here and show everone how you do. Give more info on what you look for and how you do your formulas.
Great info.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Always look into the Schedule Strength and Rank as an added tool not just the difference in rating. Even after one game has been played can mean a team like ( WV) being overvalued ( overhyped) or a team as in( Marsh)being (undervalued) and installed as a dog.
Compare these 2 teams Sagarins ratings and schedule strength and rank Marshall was a 12pt home dog vs overrated West Virginia
After one game which some may think doesnt mean alot..but does imo, Marshall had a 42 point ( schedule) advantage and #1 Rank . Even though they lost the game they played WV tough and did cover ATS. Marshalls loss against Ohio St last wk was more impressive numericly than WV home win last wk. Where they ended up on the chart after that first game proves it.So does the outcome of tonights game. They should have beat WV,, they choked, but still won the money
Hawaii+3 @ Army for Sat Sept 11
Check Hawaii's 34.5 pt Schedule advantage after one game and better yet, they are higher on the power rating chart than Army...alot higher. Its telling you something.
Thats only one variable of reading Sagarins ratings. Make copys of them weekly especially in the NFL and watch the teams ratings schedule and rank fluctuate. Once you get to the end of Nov in the NFL, you will be able to go back to team A's 4 road game opponents ratings for the team on the road and team B's 4 home games opponents ratings for the team thats playing at home. Add it and average it.
Then you can compare team A's average opp power rating with Team B's average opponts rating. Then you have to figure out by how many points team A is winning or losing by to thier opponents average rating and so forth with team B.
Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start.
I could write a book on how to make a line. Talk to me.
Gets complicated...been doing it for years and laughed at for it.
Works for me!
Making your own lines is the way to go for sure. Keep posting here and show everone how you do. Give more info on what you look for and how you do your formulas.
Always look into the Schedule Strength and Rank as an added tool not just the difference in rating. Even after one game has been played can mean a team like ( WV) being overvalued ( overhyped) or a team as in( Marsh)being (undervalued) and installed as a dog.
Compare these 2 teams Sagarins ratings and schedule strength and rank Marshall was a 12pt home dog vs overrated West Virginia
After one game which some may think doesnt mean alot..but does imo, Marshall had a 42 point ( schedule) advantage and #1 Rank . Even though they lost the game they played WV tough and did cover ATS. Marshalls loss against Ohio St last wk was more impressive numericly than WV home win last wk. Where they ended up on the chart after that first game proves it.So does the outcome of tonights game. They should have beat WV,, they choked, but still won the money
Hawaii+3 @ Army for Sat Sept 11
Check Hawaii's 34.5 pt Schedule advantage after one game and better yet, they are higher on the power rating chart than Army...alot higher. Its telling you something.
Thats only one variable of reading Sagarins ratings. Make copys of them weekly especially in the NFL and watch the teams ratings schedule and rank fluctuate. Once you get to the end of Nov in the NFL, you will be able to go back to team A's 4 road game opponents ratings for the team on the road and team B's 4 home games opponents ratings for the team thats playing at home. Add it and average it.
Then you can compare team A's average opp power rating with Team B's average opponts rating. Then you have to figure out by how many points team A is winning or losing by to thier opponents average rating and so forth with team B.
Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start.
I could write a book on how to make a line. Talk to me.
Gets complicated...been doing it for years and laughed at for it.
Works for me!
thats what im talkin about Wizer...thats gold
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Always look into the Schedule Strength and Rank as an added tool not just the difference in rating. Even after one game has been played can mean a team like ( WV) being overvalued ( overhyped) or a team as in( Marsh)being (undervalued) and installed as a dog.
Compare these 2 teams Sagarins ratings and schedule strength and rank Marshall was a 12pt home dog vs overrated West Virginia
After one game which some may think doesnt mean alot..but does imo, Marshall had a 42 point ( schedule) advantage and #1 Rank . Even though they lost the game they played WV tough and did cover ATS. Marshalls loss against Ohio St last wk was more impressive numericly than WV home win last wk. Where they ended up on the chart after that first game proves it.So does the outcome of tonights game. They should have beat WV,, they choked, but still won the money
Hawaii+3 @ Army for Sat Sept 11
Check Hawaii's 34.5 pt Schedule advantage after one game and better yet, they are higher on the power rating chart than Army...alot higher. Its telling you something.
Thats only one variable of reading Sagarins ratings. Make copys of them weekly especially in the NFL and watch the teams ratings schedule and rank fluctuate. Once you get to the end of Nov in the NFL, you will be able to go back to team A's 4 road game opponents ratings for the team on the road and team B's 4 home games opponents ratings for the team thats playing at home. Add it and average it.
Then you can compare team A's average opp power rating with Team B's average opponts rating. Then you have to figure out by how many points team A is winning or losing by to thier opponents average rating and so forth with team B.
Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start.
I could write a book on how to make a line. Talk to me.
Gets complicated...been doing it for years and laughed at for it.
Thanks for bumping this thread. You mentioned, "Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start." Isn't that Yards per point?
This week I have both Hawaii and BYU.
No its
80 - 65 = 15 divided by 4 = 3.75 ppg. The 80 and 65 is an example of the offensive total and defensive total of lets say 4 games. I use 4 games because I use a last 4 away game scenario for team A and the last 4 home games for team B.
You can only get this at the end of November for NFL because teams have usually played 12 games by that point and time of the season which allows you to go back 4 away games and/or 4 home games for each team. . This is where the predictability of the out come of a game can be enhanced using seperate home and away stats. Yards per point is a different calculation.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by Firebird27:
Thanks for bumping this thread. You mentioned, "Offense minus defense = true differential divided by 4 is a start." Isn't that Yards per point?
This week I have both Hawaii and BYU.
No its
80 - 65 = 15 divided by 4 = 3.75 ppg. The 80 and 65 is an example of the offensive total and defensive total of lets say 4 games. I use 4 games because I use a last 4 away game scenario for team A and the last 4 home games for team B.
You can only get this at the end of November for NFL because teams have usually played 12 games by that point and time of the season which allows you to go back 4 away games and/or 4 home games for each team. . This is where the predictability of the out come of a game can be enhanced using seperate home and away stats. Yards per point is a different calculation.
Looks like BYU was a loser, thats okay because it will produce more winners than losers over the course of a season. Its a low volume high percentage system.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
Looks like BYU was a loser, thats okay because it will produce more winners than losers over the course of a season. Its a low volume high percentage system.
Looks like BYU was a loser, thats okay because it will produce more winners than losers over the course of a season. Its a low volume high percentage system.
Thanks for the clarification in your previous post. Can't win them all, just want to hit 60%.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Looks like BYU was a loser, thats okay because it will produce more winners than losers over the course of a season. Its a low volume high percentage system.
Thanks for the clarification in your previous post. Can't win them all, just want to hit 60%.
Great info! I checked out the Saragin ratings as suggested. It looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the info. Have you checked into Allen Eatman's 99 system? I'm wondering how this would compare. FYI - Tried sending you a PM.
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Wizerguy,
Great info! I checked out the Saragin ratings as suggested. It looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the info. Have you checked into Allen Eatman's 99 system? I'm wondering how this would compare. FYI - Tried sending you a PM.
Guys check Auburn vs Clemson out and look at the schedule/rank difference between these 2 .Even though Auburn is a 6 pt HomeFavorite.You can make them a +1 homedog with a 7 pt teaser. You would then have to find another team to put in your teaser that has the same type of numbers. It will work.
I will be searching
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
Guys check Auburn vs Clemson out and look at the schedule/rank difference between these 2 .Even though Auburn is a 6 pt HomeFavorite.You can make them a +1 homedog with a 7 pt teaser. You would then have to find another team to put in your teaser that has the same type of numbers. It will work.
Great info! I checked out the Saragin ratings as suggested. It looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the info. Have you checked into Allen Eatman's 99 system? I'm wondering how this would compare. FYI - Tried sending you a PM.
Will do
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by Shepster:
Wizerguy,
Great info! I checked out the Saragin ratings as suggested. It looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the info. Have you checked into Allen Eatman's 99 system? I'm wondering how this would compare. FYI - Tried sending you a PM.
Great info! I checked out the Saragin ratings as suggested. It looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the info. Have you checked into Allen Eatman's 99 system? I'm wondering how this would compare. FYI - Tried sending you a PM.
Thanks bud, Yes I will look into AE 99 System. I did not recieve your PM
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
Quote Originally Posted by Shepster:
Wizerguy,
Great info! I checked out the Saragin ratings as suggested. It looks pretty interesting. Thanks for the info. Have you checked into Allen Eatman's 99 system? I'm wondering how this would compare. FYI - Tried sending you a PM.
Thanks bud, Yes I will look into AE 99 System. I did not recieve your PM
Hey Wizerguy, I See You Use The Jeff Saragin Rating Too. Looks Like You Do A Different Format Than I Do. So What Do You Think About Thurs. NCAAF Game With Cincy/NC St.? I Calculated My Numbers And I have Cincy getting Blown Out By NC State, Your Thoughts?
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Hey Wizerguy, I See You Use The Jeff Saragin Rating Too. Looks Like You Do A Different Format Than I Do. So What Do You Think About Thurs. NCAAF Game With Cincy/NC St.? I Calculated My Numbers And I have Cincy getting Blown Out By NC State, Your Thoughts?
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