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Jeff Sagarin Ratings

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

Hey Wizerguy, I See You Use The Jeff Saragin Rating Too.  Looks Like You Do A Different Format Than I Do.  So What Do You Think About Thurs. NCAAF Game With Cincy/NC St.?  I Calculated My Numbers And I have Cincy getting Blown Out By NC State, Your Thoughts?

Its still to early in the season for me to say ..yes NCState is going to blow out Cinn.

Cinn is listed # 78 on the chart with a 68 rating. If you look at thier Schedule # its 63.5 with a (99) Rank

NCState is listed # 41 on the chart with a 76.5 rating and a 57 Schedule and (142 )Rank

I would only be guessing on who would win and cover this game. The rating/schedule/rank numbers presented to me between these 2 teams does not fit my criteria as a play on either team

Now if NCState had a 76.5 rating and had an 85 Schedule # and was a +3 home dog with a (7)Rank.. Then I would be all over NCState. +3 because they were higher on the chart with a  20 pt superior schedule #.

Stay away form that game.In fact im staying away from all of them exept for some experimentation

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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

Its still to early in the season for me to say ..yes NCState is going to blow out Cinn.

Cinn is listed # 78 on the chart with a 68 rating. If you look at thier Schedule # its 63.5 with a (99) Rank

NCState is listed # 41 on the chart with a 76.5 rating and a 57 Schedule and (142 )Rank

I would only be guessing on who would win and cover this game. The rating/schedule/rank numbers presented to me between these 2 teams does not fit my criteria as a play on either team

Now if NCState had a 76.5 rating and had an 85 Schedule # and was a +3 home dog with a (7)Rank.. Then I would be all over NCState. +3 because they were higher on the chart with a  20 pt superior schedule #.

Stay away form that game.In fact im staying away from all of them exept for some experimentation

  Gotcha, Just Wanted To See Whats Going To Happen Tonight Anyway.
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

  Gotcha, Just Wanted To See Whats Going To Happen Tonight Anyway.

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Posted: #29

Well Wiz, Could've Had A Winner Tonight.  Who You Like Fri.?

I'm Going Home To Calculate These Numbers And See What's Good.

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

Well Wiz, Could've Had A Winner Tonight.  Who You Like Fri.?

I'm Going Home To Calculate These Numbers And See What's Good.

Yep!   Thats okay the season's early. ill check Friday out

 

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Posted: #31

I would go with :

Kansas +6

Test play for me only

 

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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

I would go with :

Kansas +6

Test play for me only

 




Hey Wizer...I sent you a covers e-mail about the nfl true points
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

I would go with :

Kansas +6

Test play for me only

 



Just so I understand the pick according to the Sagarin numbers:

Southern Miss
Rating 70.1 (67.09 + 3.01 for HF)
Sched Rating 65
Sched Rank 87

Kansas
Rating 70.45
Sched Rating 67
Sched Rank (71)

The Sched Rank difference of 16 is what jumps off the page.  Is that one of the factors in taking Kansas +6 tonight?
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

I would go with :

Kansas +6

Test play for me only

 

  My Numbers Told Me Southern Miss. & California
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

I would go with :

Kansas +6

Test play for me only

 

  My Numbers Told Me Southern Miss. & California
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by Firebird27:



Just so I understand the pick according to the Sagarin numbers:

Southern Miss
Rating 70.1 (67.09 + 3.01 for HF)
Sched Rating 65
Sched Rank 87



Kansas
Rating 70.45
Sched Rating 67
Sched Rank (71)

The Sched Rank difference of 16 is what jumps off the page.  Is that one of the factors in taking Kansas +6 tonight?

No, definetly not, if you look at the schedule # 65 -and Kansas # 67 its basicly telling you both teams play the same caliber of competition.The 16 differentia is not that great it means nothing. This is not a game I would put big money on. It was a test only...a failed test. No problem.

Now look at Auburns rank(93) and compare it to Clemsons rank (200).Now that is a big differece 107.The important nuber to look at is the Schedule #

 

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Posted: #37

Dont worry guys when you see my NCAA posted plays.

If there is a Superior Scheduled Dog. You will know it by my stake on he game and the explanation of the play.

Another few weeks my friends...NFL also .But the numbers will be different. A 30 pt difference in Rank is huge in the NFL. 16 is not a big diff.

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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

Now look at Auburns rank(93) and compare it to Clemsons rank (200).Now that is a big differece 107.The important nuber to look at is the Schedule #

 


So the play is auburn because their schedule is significantly more difficult? 

Thanks!
 
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Posted: #39
Oregon State -20....   No test here
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

Oregon State -20....   No test here


ore st: 78 rating (35th), 89 schedule (3rd)
louis: 65 rating (93rd), 59 schedule (129)

got it
 
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Posted: #41
Great stuff Wizerguy.  GL on OSU
 
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Posted: #42

There was one prblem with that play

OSU= No defense. Sorry guys but its still to early.

However, I see my teaser play is still alive

 

Memphis +12/Auburn +1

C'mon Auburn win this game

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Posted: #43

Memphis +12/Auburn +1  

Have to follow the dog system. We converted Auburn the med priced favorite to a home dog. Memphis cashed with the dog system.  Still early in the season. Lets keep it alive. It only gets better the more games played.

 

 

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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

Memphis +12/Auburn +1  

Have to follow the dog system. We converted Auburn the med priced favorite to a home dog. Memphis cashed with the dog system.  Still early in the season. Lets keep it alive. It only gets better the more games played.

 

 

Man, Wish I Would've Seen This Before I Put In The Bet.  The Play Told Me That Auburn Should've Covered, Maybe You Could Put Me On Game About This Dog System!
 
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Posted: #45

WIZER, anything for the NFL tomorrow, shoot me a message would love to shoot around a few games back and forth...

 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

Man, Wish I Would've Seen This Before I Put In The Bet.  The Play Told Me That Auburn Should've Covered, Maybe You Could Put Me On Game About This Dog System!

do my best

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Posted: #47
eyeing this one for next week:

Memphis= Rating: 60 (117th)  Schedule: 69 (50th)
UTEP=      Rating: 61 (112th)  Schedule: 48 (201st)

UTEP opened -7...75% of bets coming in on UTEP (according to sbrodds.com), line currently sits at 10.5

similar ratings but Memphis schedule 21 pts better and 151 spots better
 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by BostonStrangler:

eyeing this one for next week:

Memphis= Rating: 60 (117th)  Schedule: 69 (50th)
UTEP=      Rating: 61 (112th)  Schedule: 48 (201st)

UTEP opened -7...75% of bets coming in on UTEP (according to sbrodds.com), line currently sits at 10.5

similar ratings but Memphis schedule 21 pts better and 151 spots better

Nice job Boss. I see a few on the radar myself. Even though N.Carolina has these guys still susp. Take a look at the 30pt Schedule advantage for NC @ Rutgers.Its at a PK. Add 7 to NC for the teaser. Memphis looks good. keep In touch.

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Posted: #49
Just a few I noticed...

BYU    Rating 73.78 (52), 79 Schedule (5)
Nevada Rating 80.13 (25), 62 Schedule (115)

BYU +5.5

Colorado State Rating 57.22 (147), 74 Schedule (23)
Idaho          Rating 68.58 (75),  59 Schedule (138)

Colorado State +7

North Carolina Rating 72.41 (58), 82 Scheudle (3)
Rutgers        Rating 73.33 (53), 52 Schedule (178)

Pk'em

San Diego State Rating 70.4 (80), 51 Schedule (182)
Utah State      Rating 61.15 (108), 72 Schedule (36)

Utah State +7.5
 
 
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Posted: #50
sweet  nice job boys
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