IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY

You have to watch the lines just before game time. KC became the DOG at game time making them the play.

THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.
5. Avoid games where there is a lot of line movement.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
6/10 - Cleveland - WIN
6/10 - Dodgers - WIN
6/12 - Oakland - WIN
6/12 - Philly - LOSS
6/13 - Boston v Miami - NO PLAY Weird Line Movements
6/13 - Brewers - LOSS
6/15 - Brewers - WIN
6/16 - Phillies - LOSS
6/18 - Brewers - WIN
6/18 - Giants - WIN
6/22 - St. Louis - WIN
6/22 - Seattle - LOSS
6/23 - Houston - WIN
6/25 - Kansas City - WIN
6/25 - Minnesota - WIN

6/25 - Oakland - WIN

Tampa is not a play tonight, they have so many injuries. They don't have the bench to to get the runs necessary to win even though everything else lines up. I am passing on this game.

THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.
5. Avoid games where there is a lot of line movement.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
6/10 - Cleveland - WIN
6/10 - Dodgers - WIN
6/12 - Oakland - WIN
6/12 - Philly - LOSS
6/13 - Boston v Miami - NO PLAY Weird Line Movements
6/13 - Brewers - LOSS
6/15 - Brewers - WIN
6/16 - Phillies - LOSS
6/18 - Brewers - WIN
6/18 - Giants - WIN
6/22 - St. Louis - WIN
6/22 - Seattle - LOSS
6/23 - Houston - WIN
6/25 - Kansas City - WIN
6/25 - Minnesota - WIN
6/25 - Oakland - WIN
6/27 - Cincinnati - PENDING

I think we are supposed to avoid Cincy - they are a DOG attempting to SWEEP the series.

Is there another filter that makes them a good choice today?

How can CIN be a play today with the pitcher matchup Greinke / Baily? - not only is Greinke ERA lower but he is higher ranked in Sagarin Pitcher ratings.

oh man and the line moved to make MIL the dog - not sure when - knowing Covers - probably after the game started

I would have taken MIl in this one if I caught it before game time with Greinke on the mound - I guess we shall see how it pans out

The thing is...MIL SUCKS!!! hehe

Yet, according to the strategy laid out in this thread, they were the pick today and.........guess what? they are winning 5-2.

This system is not about personal opinions. It is apparently about line moves and it is amazingly accurate.

oh and the Mets had a better pitcher on the mound according to Sagarin Pitcher ratings. - double reason not to take the Cubs

I do like the PIT bet - if they stay a DOG i'm all over it.  Let's hope.

You got McDonald (PIT) - ranked 3rd in Cat A on Sagarin Rating

VS

Vades ranked 6th in Cat B on Sagarin Rating.

Irage - do you think instead of ERA filter - it would be better to use the Sagarin ranking filter?

So basically use all the other filters you outlined and use the Sagarin Ratings to make the final cut.

So for example today

MIL vs CIN - would have taken MIL is the DOG with Greinke having the better rank AND CIN was going for the sweep.

Result:W

NYM vs CHC - Cubs were the DOG but they were going for the sweep - plus NYM had a slighlty better pitcher rating

Result: Would have laid off because of sweep and pitching ADV

OAK vs SEA - SEA the DOG - has better pitching edge

Result: TBD - but I took em

PIT vs PHI - PIT the DOG - Mcd has a huge pitching edge on Valdes - as long as PIT stays the DOG - i'm all over it

Result: TBD

SDP vs HOU - SDP the DOG - but only has a slight edge per Sagarin rating on HOU - this would be a use your discretion - but probably lay off

Result: Prob lay off

PIT is in the same position that the Mets were in. Still the dog, better pitching and trying to avoid the sweep.

THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.
5. Avoid games where there is a lot of line movement.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
6/10 - Cleveland - WIN
6/10 - Dodgers - WIN
6/12 - Oakland - WIN
6/12 - Philly - LOSS
6/13 - Boston v Miami - NO PLAY Weird Line Movements
6/13 - Brewers - LOSS
6/15 - Brewers - WIN
6/16 - Phillies - LOSS
6/18 - Brewers - WIN
6/18 - Giants - WIN
6/22 - St. Louis - WIN
6/22 - Seattle - LOSS
6/23 - Houston - WIN
6/25 - Kansas City - WIN
6/25 - Minnesota - WIN
6/25 - Oakland - WIN
6/27 - Cincinnati - LOSS
6/27 - Pittsburgh - PENDING

I took PIT - but not sure what to do with HOU if they end up being the DOG - both pitchers have same Sagarin ranking

Harrell ERA 2.48 @ home  - 4.77 for the season

Richards ERA 4.88 Away - and 4.88 for the season

So not sure what to do - initially I was going to lay off but more I look at it - I think it may be a decent spot for HOU.

What do you guys think?

I think you are correct. Wait til Thurs.