FreakyFresh Investment Project

Saturday's Five Games:

1. Florida / South Carolina - Under 43
2. UCLA / Washington St. - Under 48.5
3. New Mexico St. / Hawaii - Under 51
4. Indiana / Penn St. - Under 51
5. Auburn / Georgia - Over 58

123451121231234

	7.37%	6.70%
	7.12%	6.47%
	6.64%	6.04%
	4.86%	4.42%
	4.24%	3.86%
2	0.83%	2.15%
3	0.77%	2.00%
3	0.75%	1.94%
4	0.56%	1.47%
4	0.55%	1.42%
4	0.51%	1.32%
5	0.49%	1.28%
5	0.48%	1.24%
5	0.44%	1.15%
5	0.32%	0.84%

Another winning Saturday and plus week in general:

Saturday's Results:

1. Florida/South Carolina - Under 43 (38)
2. UCLA / Washington St. - Under 48.5 (50)
3. New Mexico St. / Hawaii - Under 53 (30)

4. Indiana / Penn St. - Under 51 - PUSH ( 51)
5. Auburn / Georgia - Over 58 - (55)

1. +6.70%
2. -7.12%
3. 6.04%
4. 0%
5. -4.24%
1&2. -0.83%
1&3. 2.00%
2&3. -0.75%
1&4. +0.51%
2&4. -0.55%
3&4. +0.46%
1&5. -0.49%
2&5. -0.48%
3&5. -0.44%
4&5. -0.32%

Total: +0.50% or +$7.77
Current Bankroll: $1,565.64
ROI (5 weeks): 56.56%

Through 5 week of the College Football Season this thread has been a consistent winner. I have an unorthodox way of posting my wagers on this thread, because of the nature I intent for the thread. I do not post flat betting on this thread, so there are no use for units to be posted since they are consistently changing from week to week and day to day during week games. Since the thread might be a little confusing to follow in terms of results, I intend to clear some things up with this post, putting all the results in one place. There have been 5 weeks that have passed since the start of this thread, which I started with a $1,000.00 bankroll.


Started w/ $1,000
Record: 4-1
Net Results: +$259.78
Ending Bankroll: $1,259.78
Return for Week: +25.98%
Cumulative ROI: 25.98%

Started w/ $1,259.78
Record: 3-2
Net Results: +$55.30
Ending Bankroll: $1,315.08
Return for Week: +4.39%
Cumulative ROI: 31.51%

Started w/ $1,315.08
Record: 2-4
Net Results: -$147.14
Ending Bankroll: $1,167.94
Return for Week: -11.19%
Cumulative ROI: 16.79%

Started w/ $1,167.94
Record: 4-1
Net Results: +$379.44
Ending Bankroll: $1,547.38
Return for Week: 32.49%
Cumulative ROI: 54.74%

Started w/ $1,547.38
Record: 3-3-1
Net Results: +$18.26
Ending Bankroll: $1,565.64
Return for Week: 1.18%
Cumulative ROI: 56.56%

The current bankroll after 5 weeks is now $1,565.64, a 56.56% return from the $1,000 I started with. There have been 4 positive weeks and 1 negative week. The total record is 16-11-1 (59.26%), and the top plays on Saturday are 4-1. My goal is too get to +100% return in three more weeks for the season, which would be a doubling of the bankroll is 8 weeks.

Those parlay really help eh?

Good Luck!

Makes me want to follow along :)

Eh, yeah kind of. The parlays reduce the risk and adjust the reward very slightly, but they do help yeah.

Tulsa / East Carolina - Under 50.5

Wager: 8.04%: $125.87 to win 7.31% $114.43

Good Luck Freaky

I'm tailing your play instead of making a decision on the NE/INDY game

 

FreakyFresh - read anything vanzack has ever written... hands down the best material on here regarding probability, odds, vig, pricing, etc.

Thanks Smith, appreciate you dropping in. I can tell you know you your stuff too just by recognizing those who do have a great depth of knowledge a lot of different topics.

Regarding reading VanZack's stuff, I actually have read a lot of his work on here. I found the member spotlight thing on the the front page of Covers, really insightful and knowledgeable.

You know, I use Covers for a few different things. One is obviously to post these plays in here and to continue this project I have personally started. Another reason is to just read what the general public thinks on many different sports topics, which most of the time is for my amusement really. Lastly, it is to expand my own knowledge base and to test my ability to read through bullshitters really. These come hand in hand, because you have to really trust your instinct to know when you have a knowledgeable and bright person posting very intelligent information that can be useful, and when someone is just completely misleading.

That said, I have developed my own little group of posters who I think are extremely intelligent, and whose material is worth my time to read. Many times these people aren't people who have 1000+ posts or have been here for years, because longevity to me doesn't mean anything really. The only thing it might garner is respect from other posters. For example, TallyGuy, someone who I came across while we both were raising questions about Sports Network's methods in here, only has a couple hundred posts, but I respect his comments more than just about anyone's on here. I will say, VanZack is one of these people to me, if not the leader.

Thanks again Smith, drop by any time.

Kicking off another week tomorrow with some MAC games... outside of the capping, actually being a fan of NCAAF is great with all these undefeated teams, and makes for a great finish.

Dufresne, hate to see the tail and a loss man, hopefully things turn back around the rest of this week.

Tulsa / East Carolina - Under 50.5 (61)
Wager: -8.04% or -$125.87
Current Bankroll: $1,439.77


Picks For Wednesday Football (continuing with the unders

Games:
1. Buffalo / Miami (OH) - Under 51
2. Central Michigan / Ball State - Under 49.5

Wagers:
1. 8.55% to win 7.77% ($123.12 to win $111.93)
2. 4.98% to win 4.53% ($71.74 to win $65.22)
1&2. .50% to win 1.29% ($7.14 to win $18.55)

Buffalo / Miami OH Under 50.5 (59)

Central Michigan / Ball State - Under 49.5 (38)

Results:
1. -$123.12
2. $65.22
1&2. -$7.14
Net Results: -4.52% or -$65.04

Current Bankroll: $1,374.73

**Thoughts** - Damn that Buffalo-Miami game goes a quarter without scoring in the first and goes over, that always sucks. A cheap TD off an onside kick took all those on 52 and under for a loss. A short kick off late in the 4th game Miami great field position to score a TD and take it to 52 instantly after Buffalo scored... I don't like Saturday's card too much either, so I really have my work cut out here to get back the money I lost from Sunday and tonight and get back up to around 1,400.00 or higher. I have 1 game I really really like and another I like this week, so it might be 2 big plays and 3 much smaller plays for this week, or even revert back to the spreads for just a week. I'll post something Friday night for Saturday. Nothing tomorrow.

I an new to this site and wanted to offer a quick hello and let you know I have been following your thread closely. I come from a background in trading and backtesting financial trading systems.
I am looking forward to applying some of those processes to the betting realm as I continue to research where my edge lies.
Your use of the Kelly model is something I find more appliable to betting versus financial markets because of the variation in confidence of each trade/bet selection. Although I think some in the financial realm would disagree with me on their ability to distinguish between quality of trades, I believe that my research has shown that not to be the case. In my opinion It is much more suited for betting in the way that you have a probability assigned to each betting opportunity.
Thanks for your hard work and I look forward to your updates.

Thanks, it's much appreciated Trader. Obviously any success in this industry is going to come from at least getting as close as possible calculating the probability of something happening, and even as much as a science as this, randomness still plays an overwhelming factor.

I should have plays up either within the hour or before midnight.

Since you brought up the financial market and the difficulty to distinguish between quality of trades, which I attribute to the fact of randomness.

 I want to ask you and anyone else out there if they have read "Fooled by Randomness" or "Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb? My best friend has read both and he has said that Taleb has changed his thinking process permanently for life and that he guarantees that I would be love this man's work. So I decided to start reading both of them at the start of the new year. I would love any feedback from someone who has read this man's work.

These books have nothing to do with betting, but I would say from reading what they are about and from what my friend has told me is that they are definite read for those who gamble.

Current Bankroll = $1,374.73 (Use for %'s)

GAMES FOR SATURDAY

1. Louisville / South Florida - Under 45
2. Hawaii / San Jose St. - Under 54
3. Missouri / Iowa St. - Under 50.5
4. Florida Atlantic / Troy - Under 67
5. Northern Illinois / Ohio - Under 44.5


23451121231234

	6.31%	$86.69	5.73%	$78.81
	4.69%	$64.54	4.27%	$58.67
	4.43%	$60.92	4.03%	$55.39
	2.49%	$34.17	2.26%	$31.07
2	0.86%	$11.81	2.23%	$30.71
3	0.64%	$8.79	1.66%	$22.86
3	0.43%	$5.96	1.13%	$15.49
4	0.60%	$8.30	1.57%	$21.58
4	0.41%	$5.62	1.06%	$14.62
4	0.30%	$4.19	0.79%	$10.89
5	0.34%	$4.66	0.88%	$12.11
5	0.23%	$3.16	0.60%	$8.20
5	0.17%	$2.35	0.44%	$6.10
5	0.16%	$2.22	0.42%	$5.77

Don't know why it always cut's of that first line for some reason but game 1 is

9.31%   $127.95   8.46%   $116.32

Both books are highly recommended. If only for the fact that you don't start to fool yourself into deluded returns or expectations. Edges that exist tend to fade and new ones arise. The best trader/shandicappers know the market adjusts to statistical edges and then in some unforeseen way makes an about face a creates a new environment with fresh new players after the old ones blew up by believing the market would never change and it is usually those who use poor money management.
This is my favorite interview with Taleb.
https://www.econtalk.org/archives/2007/04/taleb_on_black.html

Wow, just read what I wrote. That is one hell of a run on sentence.

Up too damn late.....again.