FreakyFresh Investment Project

Freaky,

I have not been able to locate vanzack's original post but I'm still looking.  The basic idea is to give all your bets an even weighting. The unit size in the example below was selected to keep the math simple.  This can be setup in Excel where you just enter the unit size and the odds.

Risk $ + Win $ = 2 x Unit Size

ex. for a $5 Unit Size, line is +108

Risking $4.81 to Win $5.19,
$4.81 + $5.19 = $10.00 ( 2 x $5 Unit Size)

Thanks. I understand that fairly well. Half of my thread's point though is to use a money management system (Kelly) that actually does weight my plays though based on how strong the lean or play is on them. For example, I had a the biggest lean yesterday on Oklahoma/Kansas Under 53. It was probably somewhere around 57-58% chance of winning, thus it was the most heavily bet game in terms of my bankroll. Then was Idaho +15, which turned out to be a loser. But yesterday was still profitable.

I am a big fan of the flat betting system, and would suggest it 80-90% of the time, but only when a handicapper is unable to distinguish between the actual strength of his plays, and do so consistently in the long run.

Sunday's NFL Result's (Oct 25th)

1. Minnesota +6 (10)
2. Oakland/NYJ - Under 34.5  (38)

Bets:
(Single)
1. -$98.92
2. -$86.23

(Parlay)
3. -$10.61

Results: -$195.76

Waiting for the totals to come out to get a read on the rest of the week, but so far the sides that I like this week include:

Oregon +3 vs. USC
Georgia Tech -11.5 @ Vanderbilt
Fresno State -17 vs. Utah St.
California -6.5 @ Arizona St.
New Mexico St. +39 @ Ohio St.

Nice Work So Far!!!!

 

NCAAF Five Pack for Halloween (Oct 31st)

Games:
1. Air Force/Colorado St - Under 44
2. Nebraska/Baylor - Under 44.5
3. Georgia Tech -11.5 @ Vanderbilt
4. California -6 @ Arizona St.
5. Tulane/LSU - Over 43.5

Wagers:
(Single)
1. 7.53%: $99.03 to win $90.03
2. 6.58%: $86.59 to win $78.72
3. 4.47%: $58.80 to win $53.45
4. 3.98%: $52.38 to win $47.62
5. 3.76%: $49.50 to win $45.00

(Parlays)
1-2: .71%: $9.39 to win $24.41
1-3: .48%: $6.37 to win $16.57
2-3: .42%: $5.57 to win $14.49
1-4: .43%: $5.68 to win $14.76
2-4: .38%: $4.97 to win $12.91
3-4: .26%: $3.37 to win $8.77
1-5: .41%: $5.37 to win $13.95
2-5: .36%: $4.69 to win $12.20
3-5: .24%: $3.19 to win $8.28
4-5: .22%: $2.84 to win $7.38

Some trends I have noticed... Oklahoma and Air Force seem to be strong plays for the Under weekly. Oklahoma has gone under in every game this year, while Air Force has only gone over twice. I don't know what the line makers are doing, but I think both of these teams defenses are much better than perceived and their offenses are not as good as perceived. Nebraska seems to be on that next tier of teams that seems to be a good weekly under play so far through 3 weeks, even though this is the first time they have garnered a play in the project. And the other team I have noticed that runs up a high percentage play on the under is Central Michigan. I think the O/U this week are much more sharp than the last few weeks though.

Because of the rapid line movement on the Ohio State New Mexico St. spread, and the fact that I passed this game over earlier in the week, I am going to include this game on the NCAAF Card for Saturday. I wouldn't usually plan on doing this, but I can't pass up the opportunity to post this game. Because the late inclusion, this game won't be parlayed with any others, just played straight up individually.

New Mexico St +44
3.04%: $40.00 to win $36.36

GL Freaky. I'll be tracking with you.

Freaky,

     Good stuff. I see in post #10 in this thread you make reference to a Kelly calculator on the Covers site. I use the Kelly in my sports betting and I've been doing the calculations manually, and a Kelly calculator seems like a handy thing, especially with simultaneous bets. Where is the link for this on Covers, I cant seem to locate it.

                                                Thanks

Stew Baker, thanks man. Now that I actually took a closer look, the Kelly Calculator is on SBR's site. For some reason I thought it was here on Covers. Just search Google for "Simulataneous Kelly Calculator" and it should be the first link that pops up.

I'll put up my results from the NCAAF yesterday, it was a negative day in general with some tough breaks, but still positive for the year. Here are the NFL games for today:

1. Denver +3.5 @ Baltimore
2. St. Louis/Detroit - Under 43.5
3. Arizona -10 vs. Carolina
4. Jacksonville +1 @ Tennessee
5. Denver/Baltimore - Under 41.5

Bets
(Single)
1. 5.76%
2. 5.19%
3. 4.34%
4. 3.92%
5. 3.60%

(Parlays)
1-2: .40%
1-3: .34%
2-3: .30%
1-4: .30%
2-4: .27%
3-4: .23%
1-5: .28%
2-5: .25%
3-5: .21%
4-5: .19%

I don't have the time to put the actual wager amounts ($), but the percentages of the bankroll should suffice for the time being.

Extremely disappointing weekend here. I must say that even though I use a math model for these plays, I do my own capping in regards to the games based on injuries, and other factors and whatnot. And I take much more pride in my posted NCAAF picks rather than the NFL picks. The lines are way to sharp for my handicapping NFL skills, but I expect to win each week in college at least.

In NCAA this week, I lost 10.65% of the latest bankroll. I went 2-4 on the weekend.

Air Force / Colorado St. - Under 44 (51)
Nebraksa/Baylor - Under 44.5 (30)
Georgia Tech -11 (-25)
California -6 (-2)
Tulane/LSU - Over 43.5 (42)
New Mexico St. +44 (45)

Some really tough losses. New Mexico St. misses by a point, Tulane is shut out completely and misses the over by 1.5 points, Cal drives the length of the field and doesn't punch it in and settles for a GW FG that would have caused a push. Could have been 5-1 or 2-4.

I think I am actually going to cut off the NFL ties in here. I put devote a lot of the work to NCAAF, and the NFL stuff just isn't good enough. Plus with basketball heating up, that will take the majority of my time anyways. I think NCAAB is my best sport, so I will want to concentrate most importantly on the college sports.

Freaky, I am still following along eagerly. Can't wait to see next week's picks. Best of luck to you.

Thanks man, I have been extremely busy this week, haven't had the time I needed to really get a good look at these games... I did look to see if I liked anything for tonight's games (Thursday's) and there wasn't anything there, so I'll probably just go for Saturday's games again... I probably will post them tomorrow night.. unless I get some time before then somewhere..

FYI - this is a link to the thread....

Thanks man, I appreciate you posting that.

You really know your shit it seems, and I can tell for sure but the select stuff I've read of yours.

When I actually bet, it is flat betting, and that is exactly how I did it. Before I bet the first time, I messed around with all the math I possibly could so I knew what I was getting myself into. I realized that laying 1 unit on each team regardless of odds (mainly from baseball because of the odds variance in RL), was no where near true flat betting. I never heard anyone actually define a term for the amount risked and amount to win together, so for myself I just called it the "swing". I didn't want to call it the unit amount because that is quite ambiguous around here. So yeah, I always set what I call the "swing" on a game to a constant for each and every game, and bet the correct unit accordingly with the odds.

Like I've said in here before those for anyone who happens to be following, I encourage this flat betting 90% of the time. But I intended for this thread to be a little different, one where I used a Kelly betting system, and that's why I consider it a project.

Thanks again VanZack.

NCAAF Bankroll

Last Week: 2-4
Result: -10.65%
Ending Bankroll: $1,174.94
Starting Bankroll: (Oct 17th)
Cumulative ROI: 17.49% (19 days)
Total Record: 9-7
     Totals: 5-2 (Under 5-1, Over 0-1)
     Sides: 4-5 (Favs 1-2, Dogs 3-3)

This Weeks 5 Play's (11/5/09)

1. LSU/Alabama - Under 40
2. Ohio St./Penn St. - Under 39
3. Oklahoma/Nebraska - Under 41.5
4. Illinois/Minnesota - Under 51.5
5. Maryland/NC State - Over 56.5

Others Considered Strongly
UL Lafayette/Arkansas St - Under 47
Houston/Tulsa - Under 67.5
Navy +11
UCF/Texas - Over 48.5

Bets:
1    8.4709%
2    8.4709%
3    8.4709%
4    4.0261%
5    2.9045%
1+2    1.1904%
1+3    1.1904%
2+3    1.1904%
1+4    0.5658%
2+4    0.5658%
3+4    0.5658%
1+5    0.4082%
2+5    0.4082%
3+5    0.4082%
4+5    0.1940%

Big day yesterday

Results:
1. LSU/Alabama - Under 40 (39)
2. Ohio St./Penn St - Under 39 (31)
3. Oklahoma/Nebraska - Under 41.5 (13)
4. Minnesota/Illinois - Under 51.5 (67)
5. Maryland/NC State - Over 56.5 (69)

Results:

123451121231234

	8.47%	7.70%	$90.48
	8.47%	7.70%	$90.48
	8.47%	7.70%	$90.48
	4.03%	3.66%	-$47.30
	2.90%	2.64%	$31.02
2	1.19%	3.10%	$36.36
3	1.19%	3.10%	$36.36
3	1.19%	3.10%	$36.36
4	0.57%	1.47%	-$6.65
4	0.57%	1.47%	-$6.65
4	0.57%	1.47%	-$6.65
5	0.41%	1.06%	$12.47
5	0.41%	1.06%	$12.47
5	0.41%	1.06%	$12.47
5	0.19%	0.50%	-$2.28

Results:
Day Record: 4-1
Day Return: $379.44
Day Return: 32.29%
Current Bankroll: $1,554.38
Starting Bankroll (Oct 17): $1,000.00
ROI: 55.44%
Record: 13-8
     Totals: 9-3 (Unders: 8-2, Overs 1-1)
     Side: 4-5 (Favs 1-2, Dogs 3-3)

My first weeknight game of the year:

Ohio/Buffalo - Under 46


Wager:

6.72% to win 6.10% ($108.38 to win $94.89)

Ohio/Buffalo - Under 46 (51)

Result: -6.72% ... Using all these fractions throws off the decimal places, and messes up the running total by a few dollars like 4 to 5 dollars, but in the long run with these large numbers, is very minimal. I noticed that what I posted in the last one didn't add up correctly to what I was about to post, and thought I should mention that the running decimals have a minimal impact on the bankroll, but one that can be noticed by the eye.

Anyways:

The current bankroll is $1,446.00

And tonight's play is:

South Florida / West Virginia - Under 43

8.51% to win 7.74% ($123.06 to win $111.87)

Wow, big typo, meant Rutgers haha..

South Florida / Rutgers - Under 43 **

South Florida/ Rutgers

Win: 7.74%: $118.87

Current Bankroll: $1,557.87
Starting Bankroll: $1,000.00
ROI: 57.87% (4 1/2 Weeks)
Record: 14-9