I will admit, I was not going to post this because I am a greedy MF'er.
But...I am working on my doctorate in Finance and I have a family so I looking to the young bucks to pitch in and make this work. There has to be flaws. Let's filter them out.
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I will admit, I was not going to post this because I am a greedy MF'er.
But...I am working on my doctorate in Finance and I have a family so I looking to the young bucks to pitch in and make this work. There has to be flaws. Let's filter them out.
I am going through each team that is playing today in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB...looking at expert's records, trying to find one person with 4 wins in a row - it's a lot of date to shuffle through but I like the idea.
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I am going through each team that is playing today in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB...looking at expert's records, trying to find one person with 4 wins in a row - it's a lot of date to shuffle through but I like the idea.
smtwntxguy (team expert/CHI BULLS) has 8 consecutive side/total wins going into tonight, with MIAMI HEAT -4.5 and OVER 188.5...so in this case, you'd be starting your chase on BULLS +4.5 and UNDER 188.5 - correct?
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It took me a while to find this but...
smtwntxguy (team expert/CHI BULLS) has 8 consecutive side/total wins going into tonight, with MIAMI HEAT -4.5 and OVER 188.5...so in this case, you'd be starting your chase on BULLS +4.5 and UNDER 188.5 - correct?
smtwntxguy (team expert/CHI BULLS) has 8 consecutive side/total wins going into tonight, with MIAMI HEAT -4.5 and OVER 188.5...so in this case, you'd be starting your chase on BULLS +4.5 and UNDER 188.5 - correct?
No, 8 is too many. We've missed the bulk of the winning streak. You can go that route if you want to but my personal rule I use/follow is to start tailing when they have exactly 4 in a row. If you start at 8 there is a good probability that they lose the next 2 or split 50/50.
A filter I thought about was only following a team expert who previously had a winning streak before. So in this case, if it is his first 4 game streak then I'd just sit on the sidelines and watch but it is his 2nd or 3rd time with a streak then jump in.
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Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:
It took me a while to find this but...
smtwntxguy (team expert/CHI BULLS) has 8 consecutive side/total wins going into tonight, with MIAMI HEAT -4.5 and OVER 188.5...so in this case, you'd be starting your chase on BULLS +4.5 and UNDER 188.5 - correct?
No, 8 is too many. We've missed the bulk of the winning streak. You can go that route if you want to but my personal rule I use/follow is to start tailing when they have exactly 4 in a row. If you start at 8 there is a good probability that they lose the next 2 or split 50/50.
A filter I thought about was only following a team expert who previously had a winning streak before. So in this case, if it is his first 4 game streak then I'd just sit on the sidelines and watch but it is his 2nd or 3rd time with a streak then jump in.
No, 8 is too many. We've missed the bulk of the winning streak. You can go that route if you want to but my personal rule I use/follow is to start tailing when they have exactly 4 in a row. If you start at 8 there is a good probability that they lose the next 2 or split 50/50.
A filter I thought about was only following a team expert who previously had a winning streak before. So in this case, if it is his first 4 game streak then I'd just sit on the sidelines and watch but it is his 2nd or 3rd time with a streak then jump in.
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My response to Green Machine
No, 8 is too many. We've missed the bulk of the winning streak. You can go that route if you want to but my personal rule I use/follow is to start tailing when they have exactly 4 in a row. If you start at 8 there is a good probability that they lose the next 2 or split 50/50.
A filter I thought about was only following a team expert who previously had a winning streak before. So in this case, if it is his first 4 game streak then I'd just sit on the sidelines and watch but it is his 2nd or 3rd time with a streak then jump in.
The top 10 experts for a given team are considered that team's "experts." I have taken note that many of the experts do not remain in the top 10 due to regression which is common.
I believe it might be a better investment to ride the streaks of the 11-20 experts. The top 10 are under a microscope in my opinion and it can be stressful to remain in the top 10. That's why I think it could be better to watch the #11 to #20 ranked experts because they are trying to crack that top 10.
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The top 10 experts for a given team are considered that team's "experts." I have taken note that many of the experts do not remain in the top 10 due to regression which is common.
I believe it might be a better investment to ride the streaks of the 11-20 experts. The top 10 are under a microscope in my opinion and it can be stressful to remain in the top 10. That's why I think it could be better to watch the #11 to #20 ranked experts because they are trying to crack that top 10.
Let me see if I got this right...I went to the NBA scores page and looked at the Toronto at Phoenix boxscore. At the bottom of the boxscore, there are three links under Opinion: Consensus, Team Experts, and Thread. I clicked on Team Experts and you can see the experts picks. I checked the last four picks for each expert to find the four in a row wins you talk about and the only one who has four in a row(actually he has 5) both side and total is sikuwa08. He has picked for this game Phoenix -4.5 and the under 200.5. In addition, Phoenix team expert El Gato has picked four totals right in a row and he is also on the Under 200.5. None of the experts who have made selections has picked 4 in a row correct in the last 4 games.
My conclusion is that we play Phoenix -4.5 and the Under 200.5. Also, if sikuwa08 is correct in his side and total picks today for Phoenix, we would keep following his Phoenix side and totals picks until they lose. Did I follow you correctly? Thanks for your help!!!
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Let me see if I got this right...I went to the NBA scores page and looked at the Toronto at Phoenix boxscore. At the bottom of the boxscore, there are three links under Opinion: Consensus, Team Experts, and Thread. I clicked on Team Experts and you can see the experts picks. I checked the last four picks for each expert to find the four in a row wins you talk about and the only one who has four in a row(actually he has 5) both side and total is sikuwa08. He has picked for this game Phoenix -4.5 and the under 200.5. In addition, Phoenix team expert El Gato has picked four totals right in a row and he is also on the Under 200.5. None of the experts who have made selections has picked 4 in a row correct in the last 4 games.
My conclusion is that we play Phoenix -4.5 and the Under 200.5. Also, if sikuwa08 is correct in his side and total picks today for Phoenix, we would keep following his Phoenix side and totals picks until they lose. Did I follow you correctly? Thanks for your help!!!
Sikuwa08 would be excluded from my analysis because he is beyond the 4. I look for an expert who is currently sitting at 4-0 L4.
El Gato would be excluded as well. He is 3-1 L4.
If one of these experts were 4-0 L4 then yes, you would follow them until they lose. If the exper goes 2-0 then keep following. If the expert goes 1-1 then stop.
But I have noticed that when an expert goes 1-1 they can keep that streak going with the win side. Example...
(1) Capper X is 4-0 L4.
(2) Goes 2-0 so we keep following.
(3) Goes 2-0 so we keep following.
(4) Goes 1-1 (let's say Bulls-2 lost but Bulls Under 190 wins)
(5) I would follow his next O/U pick. I have seen whole new streaks start this way as well.
A lot of information to digest w/ no real easy way to mine the data. I provided a rough approach but the reason I posted is because I know there are smarter math/IT guys who might be able to run with this and improve it.
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Sikuwa08 would be excluded from my analysis because he is beyond the 4. I look for an expert who is currently sitting at 4-0 L4.
El Gato would be excluded as well. He is 3-1 L4.
If one of these experts were 4-0 L4 then yes, you would follow them until they lose. If the exper goes 2-0 then keep following. If the expert goes 1-1 then stop.
But I have noticed that when an expert goes 1-1 they can keep that streak going with the win side. Example...
(1) Capper X is 4-0 L4.
(2) Goes 2-0 so we keep following.
(3) Goes 2-0 so we keep following.
(4) Goes 1-1 (let's say Bulls-2 lost but Bulls Under 190 wins)
(5) I would follow his next O/U pick. I have seen whole new streaks start this way as well.
A lot of information to digest w/ no real easy way to mine the data. I provided a rough approach but the reason I posted is because I know there are smarter math/IT guys who might be able to run with this and improve it.
Let me see if I got this right...I went to the NBA scores page and looked at the Toronto at Phoenix boxscore. At the bottom of the boxscore, there are three links under Opinion: Consensus, Team Experts, and Thread. I clicked on Team Experts and you can see the experts picks. I checked the last four picks for each expert to find the four in a row wins you talk about and the only one who has four in a row(actually he has 5) both side and total is sikuwa08. He has picked for this game Phoenix -4.5 and the under 200.5. In addition, Phoenix team expert El Gato has picked four totals right in a row and he is also on the Under 200.5. None of the experts who have made selections has picked 4 in a row correct in the last 4 games.
My conclusion is that we play Phoenix -4.5 and the Under 200.5. Also, if sikuwa08 is correct in his side and total picks today for Phoenix, we would keep following his Phoenix side and totals picks until they lose. Did I follow you correctly? Thanks for your help!!!
Meant to say: none of the other experts who made selections has picked 4 in a row correctly in the last f4 games.
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Quote Originally Posted by MortgageMan:
Let me see if I got this right...I went to the NBA scores page and looked at the Toronto at Phoenix boxscore. At the bottom of the boxscore, there are three links under Opinion: Consensus, Team Experts, and Thread. I clicked on Team Experts and you can see the experts picks. I checked the last four picks for each expert to find the four in a row wins you talk about and the only one who has four in a row(actually he has 5) both side and total is sikuwa08. He has picked for this game Phoenix -4.5 and the under 200.5. In addition, Phoenix team expert El Gato has picked four totals right in a row and he is also on the Under 200.5. None of the experts who have made selections has picked 4 in a row correct in the last 4 games.
My conclusion is that we play Phoenix -4.5 and the Under 200.5. Also, if sikuwa08 is correct in his side and total picks today for Phoenix, we would keep following his Phoenix side and totals picks until they lose. Did I follow you correctly? Thanks for your help!!!
Meant to say: none of the other experts who made selections has picked 4 in a row correctly in the last f4 games.
Also, I am a "less is more" type of bettor. I am looking to ride 1 streak at a nickel to a dime. I don't want to play 4-5 different streaks in a night. I find 1 expert and ride that streak.
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Also, I am a "less is more" type of bettor. I am looking to ride 1 streak at a nickel to a dime. I don't want to play 4-5 different streaks in a night. I find 1 expert and ride that streak.
I see why you would exclude sikuwa08 because he is now 5-0 and I missed out on the 4-0 last 4. But, if you had seen him go 4-0 last four and started to follow him, you would be 1-0 and I assume you would keep following him until he loses. Just because I just saw this system, I will act like I won with his picks last game and keep following until he loses. Seems like it would be no different than if I had been following along from the start of his streak. Am I looking at it wrong?
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I see why you would exclude sikuwa08 because he is now 5-0 and I missed out on the 4-0 last 4. But, if you had seen him go 4-0 last four and started to follow him, you would be 1-0 and I assume you would keep following him until he loses. Just because I just saw this system, I will act like I won with his picks last game and keep following until he loses. Seems like it would be no different than if I had been following along from the start of his streak. Am I looking at it wrong?
Also, I am a "less is more" type of bettor. I am looking to ride 1 streak at a nickel to a dime. I don't want to play 4-5 different streaks in a night. I find 1 expert and ride that streak.
With this approach I risk going 0-2 (obviously) and I know there is a risk that my bankroll can get eaten by juice if I go 1-1 most of the time. I don't know the back tested history of this approach but from what I have seen thus far it has been good for me and it has made a few locals uncomfortable to the point where they are asking me why am I playing both the side/total in every game I call in.
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Quote Originally Posted by retire_early:
Also, I am a "less is more" type of bettor. I am looking to ride 1 streak at a nickel to a dime. I don't want to play 4-5 different streaks in a night. I find 1 expert and ride that streak.
With this approach I risk going 0-2 (obviously) and I know there is a risk that my bankroll can get eaten by juice if I go 1-1 most of the time. I don't know the back tested history of this approach but from what I have seen thus far it has been good for me and it has made a few locals uncomfortable to the point where they are asking me why am I playing both the side/total in every game I call in.
I see why you would exclude sikuwa08 because he is now 5-0 and I missed out on the 4-0 last 4. But, if you had seen him go 4-0 last four and started to follow him, you would be 1-0 and I assume you would keep following him until he loses. Just because I just saw this system, I will act like I won with his picks last game and keep following until he loses. Seems like it would be no different than if I had been following along from the start of his streak. Am I looking at it wrong?
No, you are not looking at it wrong. You have the correct approach.
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Quote Originally Posted by MortgageMan:
I see why you would exclude sikuwa08 because he is now 5-0 and I missed out on the 4-0 last 4. But, if you had seen him go 4-0 last four and started to follow him, you would be 1-0 and I assume you would keep following him until he loses. Just because I just saw this system, I will act like I won with his picks last game and keep following until he loses. Seems like it would be no different than if I had been following along from the start of his streak. Am I looking at it wrong?
No, you are not looking at it wrong. You have the correct approach.
Just remember that there is a risk that what I am seeing has been 100% random. Again, it is a rough approach that has worked but I am hoping as a team here we can work out the kinks, add some filters and make money. I don't like action and am content if there are nights where there is no play. In fact this happens a lot because some teams do not play nightly.
I have not tried this with NFL/NCAAB/NCAAF. It might be difficult because you have a lot of experts who are currently 8-0 or 10-0 in college.
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Just remember that there is a risk that what I am seeing has been 100% random. Again, it is a rough approach that has worked but I am hoping as a team here we can work out the kinks, add some filters and make money. I don't like action and am content if there are nights where there is no play. In fact this happens a lot because some teams do not play nightly.
I have not tried this with NFL/NCAAB/NCAAF. It might be difficult because you have a lot of experts who are currently 8-0 or 10-0 in college.
So, you are actually waiting until someone gets to 4 wins...then wagering on their 5th side & total play(s) - until they lose. I thought you were starting a chase against their 5th pick(s)...and chasing their plays until they lose. That's where I got lost.
Got it now. I will dig in some more today...
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So, you are actually waiting until someone gets to 4 wins...then wagering on their 5th side & total play(s) - until they lose. I thought you were starting a chase against their 5th pick(s)...and chasing their plays until they lose. That's where I got lost.
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