DegenGamble's NFL handicapping method

Ok so I used this last year and this year and have had good results and figured I would share and get some thoughts and feedback. So this is a handicapping method for the NFL not a system. So essentially I use fantasy football stats to handicap the game. So you need to set up a fantasy football league with all the NFL teams and set their lineups with the starting and backup players and then set the teams to play each other each week based on the NFL schedule. So you know how you can see the projected matchup scoring based on projected fantasy football points? For example, this past week the Patriots lineup (qb, wr, wr, wr, rb, etc,etc) was projected to score 110 fantasy points and the panthers projected to score 63 fantasy points. So a delta of 47. I take the delta (47) and divide by the line (-8.5) adjusting by -2 if the home team is a favorite or +4 if the home team is a dog. Remember the fantasy projections do not factor in home field advantage.

If the result (favorite factor) is less than 10 take the dog - if it's more than 10 take the favorite.

I'll post this weeks (week 5) - later this week so you can see how it's doing

Week 1: 8-15 53%
Week 2: 9-16 56%
Week 3: 12-16 75%
Week 4: 11-16 69%

Now keep in mind you don't bet every game - you can use other criteria to decide which games you eliminate (i.e division games, line movements, etc) but this gives you your initial lean

Degen, does your weekly record include totals? I'd think it would have to given the number of games in your record. If so, do you have a breakdown on sides and totals separately?

Oh sorry - I meant to write 8 out of 15 - so 8 wins 7 losses - for 53% win rate. It does not include totals

Degen....Good luck buddy!  Nice to see you posting.  Thanks again for all the excel help in the past!

Welcome back DG.

So right now for Thursday night's game Tampa bay +5.5 is the lean. I usually check again a little before game time to make sure the projections don't change.

TB +5.5

Degen, what are you using for the fantasy projections?

I don't want to say the exact site on the forum - just in case. I use a spreadsheet to log in and scrape the data I need. But it's one of the major fantasy football sites if that helps.

Gotcha. Thanks.

very interesting.. will be following you

The week #5 results should be interesting, especially the Bucs covering +5.5, I personally bet the OVER 55 (for what it's worth) both teams have defenses that literally 'stink' 

@Oil,buckey, Dan rules - thanks for the welcome back. Been pretty busy so haven't been in the forum much

@sports network - thanks - as always appreciate all your feedback on handicapping in general.

So as I mentioned - I kind of just want to demonstrate the initial leans of the method. I don't expect people would be on every prediction - but I use them for a pick'em pool against the spread as well as isolating individual games to bet

heads up

TB +5.5 W
JAX +8.5
CAR +3.5
SF +1.5
NYG -3.5
PHI -6
MIA +2.5
CLE pk
BUF +3.5
OAK -3
SEA +2.5
GB +2.5
HOU +1.5
CHI +2.5

Note that CHI moved from dog to favorite which is a huge indicator - I took them in my picke'em pool at the opening line

Been following this and trying to get a grasp on how you are picking your teams. I'm probably just having a slow moment. So for Thursday game I used espn fantasy projections and got team totals of PHI (98.3) and CAR (100) with delta of 1.7. Total/delta -3/1.7 = 1.76. 1.76-2(home field favorite) = -.24. That's less than 10 so take phili???

*spread/delta

Hey, real interesting stuff here. I’m curious why you picked -2 and +4 for Home field advantage. I’m also curious on why the deciding point is 10.  Thanks!

looks like you are on to something here Degen!

Not exactly the best showing for the method this past week - 7-7 (50%). Hopefully this week shows better results.  I guess I can take solace in the fact that a few games could have gone either way and pushed it to a winning record for the week.  Typically I expect a winning record each week.

TB +5.5 W
JAX +8.5 W
CAR +3.5 W
SF +1.5 L
NYG -3.5 L
PHI -6 W
MIA +2.5 W
CLE pk L
BUF +3.5 L
OAK -3 L
SEA +2.5 W
GB +2.5 W
HOU +1.5 L
CHI +2.5 L

 

Official Play for Thursday

Thanks degen.