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Critique My Method (NBA)

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I've got enough data now to begin sharing my NBA picks.  I've posted extensively on my methods during the MLB and NFL seasons.  No touting here, I'm just posting my daily picks as I play them.

The model is logical regression.   10 seasons of data are used to formulate the model, then tested against current season data to determine the mean error, bias, etc.

Reminder:  I recommend a 50 unit bankroll, that's 2% per event, and I focus on the maximum number of opportunities.  I don't shop lines, I pick from one of three books I use.  The lines available to you may be better or worse.

Cleveland -7
Detroit -4.5
Chicago +1

 
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Posted: #2
regular -110 odds?
 
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Posted: #3
nice hits last night,  got anything for tonight?
 
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Posted: #4
interesting
 
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Posted: #5
I will attempt to post daily.  I am doing NHL as well now, check that thread with a corresponding title if you're interested.  It is a underdog-only system.
 
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Posted: #6
YTD: 3-0

BOS -10
ORL +1.5
IND -1
MIL +4.5
MIA -6.5
ATL -3.5
 
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Posted: #7
...Well so far...
 
BOS -10....
ORL +1.5....pending
IND -1......
MIL +4.5.....pending
MIA -6.5....
ATL -3.5....
 
gotta get better to follow it...
 
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Posted: #8
...Well for 11/14...
 
BOS -10....
ORL +1.5....
IND -1......
MIL +4.5.....
MIA -6.5....
ATL -3.5....
 
....2-4..
 
gotta get better to follow it...
 
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Posted: #9
....I guess 5-4 for far....sorry my bad
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Gasman, you might want to check your math, we're 6-3 (66%) in two days.  Nothing to brag about yet, but it's a start.  Check back in a month and see where we are then and decided whether it's 'worth following'.

15 Nov:

ATL -10
IND +6.5
UTA +10.5
MIL +8.5
POR -1.5



 
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Posted: #11
....lets see...11/13...3-0
                   11/14...2-4
 
my math says that is.....5-4....
 
am I missing anything to make it turn into 6-2 
 
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Posted: #12
do your math bro, milwaukee covered and flat out won last night.  you counted that as a loss.
 
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Posted: #13
YTD 8-6

16 Nov:

CHAR +6.5
DEN -9
NY +2
DET +2
SAC -2.5
TOR -4.5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
17 Nov:

SA +2.5
HOU -8
PHX +1
 
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Posted: #15
YTD 10-7

18 Nov:

BOS -8
MIL +9.5
POR +1
CHI +13
TOR +6.5
 
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Posted: #16
YTD 13-9

19 Nov:

ATL -7.5
HOU -4.5
PHI -3.5
CHI +7
MIL +10

 
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Posted: #17
......59% winners....
 
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Posted: #18
Sdiinc, I was wondering do you apply the same logic with the NBA as you do with your NFL system? Because in the NBA there is more frequent flight miles on these players, also injuries and just sitting out a game also occurs more frequent here.  With your picks tonight ATL will not cover b/c Al Horford went out last nite with an ankle injury and their already w/out Josh Smith. The other 4 picks look decent.  I'll be checking you out though, you seem to be on your sh#$... Thx!  
I wish I would of caught you during the MLB season, looks like you guys cleaned up..
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Osiris2012:

Sdiinc, I was wondering do you apply the same logic with the NBA as you do with your NFL system? Because in the NBA there is more frequent flight miles on these players, also injuries and just sitting out a game also occurs more frequent here.  With your picks tonight ATL will not cover b/c Al Horford went out last nite with an ankle injury and their already w/out Josh Smith. The other 4 picks look decent.  I'll be checking you out though, you seem to be on your sh#$... Thx!  
I wish I would of caught you during the MLB season, looks like you guys cleaned up..


Osiris, the short answer is no.  You could say I use a similar methodology in that it is all statistics based.  One thing that I do not do with any of the sports is watch the developments you just mentioned.  I simply can't keep up with all of it.  No doubt the numbers would improve significantly if I could weed out and/or handicap better rather than just running the numbers.

NHL will probably perform similar to the MLB, so check that thread.
 
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Posted: #20
20 Nov:

Det +7
Phx +4.5

 
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Posted: #21
Cool.. Thanks bud!
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #22
0-5 night brings YTD to 13-14
 
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Posted: #23
21 Nov:

ATL -8
MEM +9.5
IND +2
BOS -6.5
SAC +4.5
UTA +4.5
NJ +8.5
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #24
Another winless night and the ytd is 13-16 heading into Friday nite.
 
 
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Posted: #25
15-20 after Friday
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