Critique My Method (NBA)

Nov 22:

IND +5.5
NJ -3.5
NY -3

Anybody else that finds it interesting that Milkman 33 seems to turn up whenever a system is doing bad. Never has anything positive to say. Always negative.
Some people...

Pete, don't worry about it.  He's noticeably absent on the NHL thread where we're doing great.  Remember how he disappeared after we netted 50 units in MLB?

Nov 23:

No system picks above 55%, therefore no picks today.

Nov 24:

NO -5.5
MIA +3.5

Nov 25:

NY +8
PHX -10

Nov 26:

CLE -15
NY +13
PHO -4
NJN +2.5

Plus 1 unit Milk.  Can we look forward to your continued, informed posts on that forum?

sdiinc thanks for all the work... i remember u doing really good during mlb... for nhl, nfl, nba, have u played this system for them in previous yrs, or back-tested them? or is it just like a trial run right now?

Nov 27:

DEN -1
ORL -3

Crook, last year I did very well in NFL, 58% ATS.  I thought we could improve on that by adding a few additional filters this year.  It just hasn't worked out thus far, and as I look at other handicapper types, I see them struggling as well.  I'm going to tweak the NFL formula by weighting the more recent games and reducing the weight of the earlier season games and see what that does. 

I predicted, but didn't post last year's NBA or NHL stuff.  Both were backtested and tweaked on about 10 years of data.  On the NHL I used a similar progressive method as I did with MLB, and it was extremely profitable for the 2nd half of the season.  I really wanted to get away from that money management model, although if I were using it now it would be doing very well.

I didn't have good data for the NBA, so began with all new formula this year.

I know on these forums people have a very short time span, but until I've got a few hundred events to track, I don't consider it statistically significant, so I'll just keep plowing ahead.  I do have greater hopes for the NBA though with the high number of events.

Nov 28:

CLE -11
DAL +11
MIN -2
NO +5
UT -10

We're 7-3 the last 3 days.  Let's hope the trend continues and is indicative of an increase in accuracy.

Nov 29:

BOS -9
MIA +1.5
MEM -8
CLE -7
DEN -5
IND +8.5
UTA -8.5

Update after 11/29

NBA 28-31  -6.10 units

NHL 12-16  -1.25 units

Too bad you can't keep doubling your bets like you did in baseball- where simple odds says you will eventually get one right. 

 

Nov 30:

HOU +4
POR +4
LAL -12
NJ +9

Milkman your math is wrong, as usual.  I suggest you go back and add again.

What do you think of our 11-6 record the last four days?

Don't you think you're setting yourself into a trap with a "Critique My Method" thread title .

But, always funny to see the haters get the math wrong and disappear once you're actually showing nice profits. BOL anyways with the picks.

So we finished November 31-31.  The bright point is that the final 5 days of the month were 14-7.  Let's hope this represents an increase in the formula accuracy as a result of a growing body of data to work from. 

Dec 1:

ORL +9
GS +3.5

I will be traveling on Dec 2 and unable to post,  See you on Wednesday.

It's amazing where you can find WIFI these days.

Dec 2:

CHI -2
DAL -11
DEN -5
IND +8.5
NJ -6.5
UTA +2

Dec 3:

IND +13.5
HOU -11.5
PHO +5.5
UTA -4.5

Dec 4:

DAL -4.5