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Chasing Against MLB Over streaks

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

nope..cos sportsdatabase doesnt have NHL, sweet numbers for NBA betting against Under streaks though..

won't be able to get this in tommorow afternoon so just placed it now for tommorow

 Level 2 play - St.Louis  U7  +105 ..3 units to win 3units..

 

  - first game in for 3 units..hopefully a good sign !

 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

basically the numbers first qouted in this thread referred to all " 3 game streaks of overs" - meaning  if a team had 5 straight overs, they would actually have  "3 streaks of 3 overs"  -i.e games 1,2,3,games 2,3,4,and games 3,4,5 .. so what i am doing is betting each of these as a new streak ..so in the scenario above.. i would have a level 1 bet (3,4,5 streak) , a level 2 bet (2,3,4 streak) and a level 3 bets (1,2,3 streak) ...  betting like this will get the value and units qouted originally, however there will be be big swings up and down ..so the bankroll required may be an issue..

Thank you sir 

 
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Posted: #28
this might work well with the 1st inning strat!
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

Did some querying on sportsdatabase , looking into the scenario of waiting till a  team has hit 3 straight overs, chasing under the next 4 .and the numbers came out VERY profitable . I know this is nothing groundbreaking, people have talked about these kind of chases before..but the numbers look very good, almost TO good,makes me think i  may be missing something  .. below is based on using the grand martingale for a 4 game chase (1-3-7-15) meaning each loss is a loss of 26 units .. for simplicity purposes i am counting each win as 1 unit however with the grand martingale, wins are often more than one unit ..so here are the numbers..

2010 to date

 247 streaks of 3 overs

 - 3 have gone to 8 games

- Profit= 247 - (3*26)=164 units

2009

489 streaks of 3 overs

14 went to 8 overs

Profit = 489 - (14*26) = 125 units

2008

455 streaks of 3 overs

4 went to 8 overs

Profit=  455( 4*26)  = 341 units

2007

484 streaks of 3 overs

9 went to 8 overs

Profit = 484 - ( 9*26) = 250 units

2006

582 streaks of 3 overs

8 went to  8 overs

Profit = 582 - (8*26) = 374 units

2005

457 streaks of 3 overs

18 went to 8 overs

Profit = 457 - (18*26)  = -11 units

 

I also tried the opposite (chasing after 3 unders.)..but it wasnt nearly as profitable.

pushes do factor in, and may end up in another chase loss or 2 ..otherwise , what am i missing ??

I guess If it went to 7 overs - the series is a loss, why do you consider 8 games?
 
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Posted: #30

yes.. i guess i worded it wrong..but the stats are still the same, using the query on sportsatabase

season=2010 and p:O and pp:O and ppp:O and pppp:O and ppppp:O and pppppp:O and ppppppp:O

 
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Posted: #31

Hey Neil

I don't know if you have looked already, but what about chasing the over after 3 staight overs rather than chasing the under?  Or, with the amount of 3 overs in a row, what if we chased for an over after 2 in a row?

 
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Posted: #32

Maybe check the same with unders?  Go with the trend rather than opposite.  Say after 2 unders in a row, chase a third?  Or, after 3 unders in a row, chase for a fourth?  I don't know, just throwing some ideas out there.

It seems like we are always looking to chase an opposite of a three or four game run.  Why not go with the streak? 

Like I said, I wish I knew more how to run the queries, otherwise I would try checking myself!  If you do have the time to look at a few different angles that would be great. 

Thanks

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by CInderellaStory:

Hey Neil

I don't know if you have looked already, but what about chasing the over after 3 staight overs rather than chasing the under?  Or, with the amount of 3 overs in a row, what if we chased for an over after 2 in a row?

its a good idea..i was doing something similar to this earlier in this season using Labouchere...it got to be a lot of units in play...tommorow when i have time i am gonna try to fine tune this, or find a better angle ..theres gotta be $$ in this somewhere..lol .

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

yes.. i guess i worded it wrong..but the stats are still the same, using the query on sportsatabase

season=2010 and p:O and pp:O and ppp:O and pppp:O and ppppp:O and pppppp:O and ppppppp:O

I checked 2010 up to date via vegasinsider.com it looks like there where 5 streaks of 7 overs (and more) - Baltimore, KC, Zona, Colorado and LAD
how did you get only 3?
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by kshifrin:

I checked 2010 up to date via vegasinsider.com it looks like there where 5 streaks of 7 overs (and more) - Baltimore, KC, Zona, Colorado and LAD
how did you get only 3?

thats what sportsdatabase gave me...i suppose the 2 difference could be the difference in lines used.. does vegasinsider use opening lines ? ..not sure which sportsdatabase uses.. I will try ot find the difference tommorow when i have time to do some queries

 
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Posted: #36

Neil,

Are you able to get game 1,2,3,4 winners with sportsdatabase?  For example, if you did a query on chasing over after 2 overs in a row, can you get winning pct. for each game of the chase?

Thanks

 
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Posted: #37
is anyone still following these system? from what I see, today has toronto under as a B bet, and wash under as a C?
 
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Posted: #38
if those past numbers are correct, this thread should be booming with basically 150+ units guarunteed per yr
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by dlunc3:

if those past numbers are correct, this thread should be booming with basically 150+ units guarunteed per yr

hey dlunc .. i want to research and verify this a bit more, and try to find the most optimal approach, and start up after the all-star break ..the numbers still seem awfully good to be true, and there has been enough doubt and questions raised that i think a little more scrutiny is needed.. gl

 
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Posted: #40
just curious, have you tested the opposite if you find that the numbers for this arent as good as they seem? meaning staying with the hot team, and after 3 overs, chase them for 4 more games that they will go over again? i look foward to seeing what you come up with... thanks for the research!
 
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Posted: #41
hey neilsy is there a way to test teams that are 500 rpi and up on queries?
 
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Posted: #42

Neilsy,

I looked at this yesterday for 2009 in AL.  I got 114-7.....  Not sure where the discrepany between sportsdatabase and mine??  I

 
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Posted: #43
rizz... gotta admit , really starting to question the validity of sportsdatabase when it comes to MLB.. for NFL and college football it is very accurate, but baseball.. i dunno..unless my baseball queries are off somehow..
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

rizz... gotta admit , really starting to question the validity of sportsdatabase when it comes to MLB.. for NFL and college football it is very accurate, but baseball.. i dunno..unless my baseball queries are off somehow..

Neilsy,

Just looked at your query vs what I tested.  I looked at 3 overs then chased 4 games to get a win to get the numbers I did.  It looks like your data is based on an 8 Over streak which would be a 5 game chase, but you calculated the units lost on only chasing for four.

 
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Posted: #45
if you guys dont mind me asking, where do you get these data bases where you get run these systems through?
 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

Neilsy,

Just looked at your query vs what I tested.  I looked at 3 overs then chased 4 games to get a win to get the numbers I did.  It looks like your data is based on an 8 Over streak which would be a 5 game chase, but you calculated the units lost on only chasing for four.

 

you"re right.. damn, how did i miss that  .. i knew there had to be something off..cos i backtested so many of these types of chases a few years back..all manually before i heard of sportsdatabase..and never found these kinda results.

dlunc ..the site is www.sportsdatabase.com

- incredible the queries you can run on this site

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