Chasing Against MLB Over streaks

Did some querying on sportsdatabase , looking into the scenario of waiting till a  team has hit 3 straight overs, chasing under the next 4 .and the numbers came out VERY profitable . I know this is nothing groundbreaking, people have talked about these kind of chases before..but the numbers look very good, almost TO good,makes me think i  may be missing something  .. below is based on using the grand martingale for a 4 game chase (1-3-7-15) meaning each loss is a loss of 26 units .. for simplicity purposes i am counting each win as 1 unit however with the grand martingale, wins are often more than one unit ..so here are the numbers..

2010 to date

 247 streaks of 3 overs

 - 3 have gone to 8 games

- Profit= 247 - (3*26)=164 units

2009

489 streaks of 3 overs

14 went to 8 overs

Profit = 489 - (14*26) = 125 units

2008

455 streaks of 3 overs

4 went to 8 overs

Profit=  455( 4*26)  = 341 units

2007

484 streaks of 3 overs

9 went to 8 overs

Profit = 484 - ( 9*26) = 250 units

2006

582 streaks of 3 overs

8 went to  8 overs

Profit = 582 - (8*26) = 374 units

2005

457 streaks of 3 overs

18 went to 8 overs

Profit = 457 - (18*26)  = -11 units

 

I also tried the opposite (chasing after 3 unders.)..but it wasnt nearly as profitable.

pushes do factor in, and may end up in another chase loss or 2 ..otherwise , what am i missing ??

Wow.  Impressive #'s that's for sure.  Must be missing something lol

A couple of thoughts:

1. How many of those chases involve two teams you are supposed to be chasing that are playing each other.

2. A lot of units could be at stake at the same time if you are chasing 15 teams at the max 15 units each  = 225.  The odds of this are probably pretty unlikely though.

Interesting results, like you say Neilsy it looks to good to be true and far to simple a strategy that I'm suprised it has been discovered already.

only one way to find out.. 5 teams under for 1 unit

Washington
Detroit
Minnesota
Toronto
St.Louis
Cubs

umm.. 6 teams..5 games.. 2 units on Tor/Minny under...

Neilsy,

I know you like using the grand martingale, but if you were to just straight 4 game chase this a 4 game loss would be about 18.4 units with -110 odds.  Still a huge loss, but with as many winners as you found, these are some serious numbers. 

Here are the results with a standard 4 game chase:

2010 = +189 units

2009 = +232 units

2008 = +382 units

2007 = +319 units

2006 = +435 units

2005 = +126 units***

The only problem is the size bankroll required?  Impressive numbers though.

interesting... according to vegas insider, the cubbies only have a 2 game over streak.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/stats/totals-report/

That's because they don't have a line posted for the July 4th game at home vs. Cincy.

Don't know why.. the Total was 11, which sailed Over 14-3.

3 is correct.

Good Luck tonight

that may be true about using a straight martingale,not sure, have to consider that 2nd, 3rd and 4th level winners using grand martingale may  make up 2 or even 2.5 units per win , and also quite often Under odds are -120 or worse. tonite for instance i think all my lines are at -120 .., , either way it is very profitable, depending on, as you say, the size of bankroll required.. not as easy to an analysis on that as it is to do for say NCAAF where you can see week by week how many units in play..

Looks good neilsy!

Neilsy I was just wondering if you ever looked into a similar system to this for the NHL?

pretty hideous start 1-5 ...-4.15 units....regardless..i like the numbers and will be running with this..here is the link to the spreadsheet..

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AncwKoJ16J3SdDZqWWdlbFVhYnI4Nm9FNWU5Mk04cUE&hl=en&authkey=CLH1xuMF

nope..cos sportsdatabase doesnt have NHL, sweet numbers for NBA betting against Under streaks though..

won't be able to get this in tommorow afternoon so just placed it now for tommorow

 Level 2 play - St.Louis  U7  +105 ..3 units to win 3units..

 

Neilsy,

Did your query count ALL 3 game streaks? For example, in an 8 game streak, do games 456 and games 567 and games 678 count as individual streaks?

I went ahead and checked on this for 2009, manually...

spreadsheet was copied and pasted from covers

came out about even. No gains.

I think you may be right...i dont have time right now, but later i will check that.. i thought numbers seemed to good to be true, and this is probably why.. thanks jonny..

...had an error in my calc on the tally sheet...

2009 actually came ahead 43 units playing a straight lab of 1-2-4-8

well .  i am going to look at it a little closer later. not sure if i will make the rest of the playd tonite

Same here...

I did notice some looong stretches of unders on that spreadsheet mentioned above, tho.

If this is the case, i suppose you could wager in such a way to still take advantage of those great numbers.. although the amount of units could get crazy ... like after 4 overs, you would be on the 2nd level of chase 1..and on the first level of new chase 2 ..i dunno

so i just redid the query this time making sure that the game before the 3 game over streak was an under..so that game 2,3,4..456 etc don"t count as another 3 game streak ... still profitable and close to what you came up with manually but no where near as good before..

about 111 streaks of 3.....  4 went to streaks of 8

Originally i thought the numbers were to good to be true.. and i was right... marginally profitable system at best....sadly that probably holds true for the great NBA numbers to...lesson learned....next !

although this could be very profitable if you treated each 3 games over  as a new streak , you may need a few hundred units though..gonna think about this,.. in the meantime i will just keep cashing in on smitlers 1st innings !

after thinking about this i am gonna run with this..smaller units, but to me it is the same thing if i was expecting 480 different chases, or 480 chases, some same team, same game. i understand the swings will be more, but these numbers are to good not to work with...having said that the rest of tonites plays

Washington  Under - 4 units (3 units chase  1, 1 unit chase 2)

Jays/ Minny Under -  8 units (3 units each for chase 1, and 1 for chase 2)

Arizona Under - 1 unit

Cubs Under - 4 units ..3 units chase 1 , 1 unit chase 2..

 

will update my spreadsheet a bit later..gl

 

Been a long day but having trouble understanding the last post??  BOL tonight!!

basically the numbers first qouted in this thread referred to all " 3 game streaks of overs" - meaning  if a team had 5 straight overs, they would actually have  "3 streaks of 3 overs"  -i.e games 1,2,3,games 2,3,4,and games 3,4,5 .. so what i am doing is betting each of these as a new streak ..so in the scenario above.. i would have a level 1 bet (3,4,5 streak) , a level 2 bet (2,3,4 streak) and a level 3 bets (1,2,3 streak) ...  betting like this will get the value and units qouted originally, however there will be be big swings up and down ..so the bankroll required may be an issue..