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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    ChanceP's Road to Riches - a 1 year trip - all JAN/FEB picks on this thread

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    ChanceP
    Salt72
    itsbadlands
    xar86413
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    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2008 - 6:24 PM ET #1

    Ok everyone here I go about to try to really really get serious about this game we call handicapping. Ive been betting on sports for over 15 years with mixed results throughout the years but definitely down as a whole. Last year I really changed the way Ive been betting and it has brought me some success. Money management has always been my biggest problem as with many sports bettors. Ive never had a sufficient bankroll to bet the way I needed to to win. Well that has changed a bit now as I have a $20,000 bankroll I am putting out on the line to try and do this the right way. There is so much more I want to say about this but it will all come out in time. To make a long story short I will be starting with a $20,000 bankroll and start off betting 1% of that roll per play. I will be following a strict-but somewhat progressive (not a chase by any means) money management system with hopes of increasing my bankroll 5% each month. Each month I will re-define my 1% unit size depending on what my bankroll is at. Anyways, lets get to day 1

     

    YTD - (0-0)  $0   BANKROLL - $20,000

     

    TUES 1/29 PLAYS:

     

    ATL/PHO  OVER 209    $220 FOR $200

    SAN ANTONIO -7  $220 FOR $200

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Ok everyone here I go about to try to really really get serious about this game we call handicapping. Ive been betting on sports for over 15 years with mixed results throughout the years but definitely down as a whole. Last year I really changed the way Ive been betting and it has brought me some success. Money management has always been my biggest problem as with many sports bettors. Ive never had a sufficient bankroll to bet the way I needed to to win. Well that has changed a bit now as I have a $20,000 bankroll I am putting out on the line to try and do this the right way. There is so much more I want to say about this but it will all come out in time. To make a long story short I will be starting with a $20,000 bankroll and start off betting 1% of that roll per play. I will be following a strict-but somewhat progressive (not a chase by any means) money management system with hopes of increasing my bankroll 5% each month. Each month I will re-define my 1% unit size depending on what my bankroll is at. Anyways, lets get to day 1

     

    YTD - (0-0)  $0   BANKROLL - $20,000

     

    TUES 1/29 PLAYS:

     

    ATL/PHO  OVER 209    $220 FOR $200

    SAN ANTONIO -7  $220 FOR $200

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Jan. 30, 2008 - 9:43 AM ET #2

    YTD - (1-1) -$20

     

    Todays plays a little later, GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

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    YTD - (1-1) -$20

     

    Todays plays a little later, GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Jan. 30, 2008 - 5:05 PM ET #3

    WED 1/30
     
    TYD - (1-1) -$20  BANKROLL : $19,980
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
     
    New Orleans -8.5    $242 for $220
    Portland -2.5   $242 for $220
     
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    WED 1/30
     
    TYD - (1-1) -$20  BANKROLL : $19,980
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
     
    New Orleans -8.5    $242 for $220
    Portland -2.5   $242 for $220
     
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
    Salt72
    Salt72
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    Posted: Jan. 30, 2008 - 9:11 PM ET #4

    Good luck, man.  Good game plan...just gotta stick with it. 
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    Good luck, man.  Good game plan...just gotta stick with it. 
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Jan. 31, 2008 - 2:59 PM ET #5

    YTD - (1-3)  -$504   BANKROLL - $19,496

    THURS 1/31 PLAYS:

     

    DETROIT -7.5  $308 FOR $280

    CLEVELAND -3.5  $308 FOR $280

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

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    YTD - (1-3)  -$504   BANKROLL - $19,496

    THURS 1/31 PLAYS:

     

    DETROIT -7.5  $308 FOR $280

    CLEVELAND -3.5  $308 FOR $280

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2008 - 12:29 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    YTD - (1-3)  -$504   BANKROLL - $19,496

    THURS 1/31 PLAYS:

     

    DETROIT -7.5  $308 FOR $280

    CLEVELAND -3.5  $308 FOR $280

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

     

    YTD - (1-5)  -$1,120  BANKROLL - $18,880

     

    Ouch, looks like Im gonna be tested right off the bat here. A terrible 1-5 start to my new campaign but thats ok, this is a 1 year long journey and Im not gonna sulk after a bad 6 games, things just arent going the right(my) way right now. If i am below .500 after 100 picks then I will be concerned, but I dont think I will. Anyways, be back tomorrow

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    YTD - (1-3)  -$504   BANKROLL - $19,496

    THURS 1/31 PLAYS:

     

    DETROIT -7.5  $308 FOR $280

    CLEVELAND -3.5  $308 FOR $280

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

     

    YTD - (1-5)  -$1,120  BANKROLL - $18,880

     

    Ouch, looks like Im gonna be tested right off the bat here. A terrible 1-5 start to my new campaign but thats ok, this is a 1 year long journey and Im not gonna sulk after a bad 6 games, things just arent going the right(my) way right now. If i am below .500 after 100 picks then I will be concerned, but I dont think I will. Anyways, be back tomorrow

     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2008 - 1:30 AM ET #7

    FRI 2/1/SAT2/2- soccer
     
    YTD - (1-5) -$1,120   BANKROLL - $18,880
     
    Gonna go with 5 early AM soccer games here. I am tailing 100% right here and very confident of at least a 3-2 day.
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS :
     
    Chelsea -.5 (-143)  $275 for $192
    Reading -.5 (+105)  $250 for $262
    Derby +1 (-140)n  $275 for $196
    West Ham/Wigan Over 2.5 (+120)  $250 for $300
    Almeria/Real Madrid Uner 2.5 (130)  $275 for $211
     
    Hopefully I get on track here after a miserable 1-5 start. This is not gonna be easy
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    FRI 2/1/SAT2/2- soccer
     
    YTD - (1-5) -$1,120   BANKROLL - $18,880
     
    Gonna go with 5 early AM soccer games here. I am tailing 100% right here and very confident of at least a 3-2 day.
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS :
     
    Chelsea -.5 (-143)  $275 for $192
    Reading -.5 (+105)  $250 for $262
    Derby +1 (-140)n  $275 for $196
    West Ham/Wigan Over 2.5 (+120)  $250 for $300
    Almeria/Real Madrid Uner 2.5 (130)  $275 for $211
     
    Hopefully I get on track here after a miserable 1-5 start. This is not gonna be easy
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2008 - 11:56 AM ET #8

    Adding :
    Liverpool -1.5 (EV) $250 for $250
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    Adding :
    Liverpool -1.5 (EV) $250 for $250
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2008 - 9:26 PM ET #9

    Adding :
     
    Orlando -4 2nd half     $330 for $300
    ML PARLAY  HOUSTON -315 and SAC -375   $330 to win $220
     
    gllllllllllllllll
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    Adding :
     
    Orlando -4 2nd half     $330 for $300
    ML PARLAY  HOUSTON -315 and SAC -375   $330 to win $220
     
    gllllllllllllllll
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2008 - 11:40 AM ET #10

    SAT RESULTS : (5-3) +$402
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    SAT RESULTS : (5-3) +$402
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2008 - 11:44 AM ET #11

    SUN 2/3
     
    YTD - (6-8) -$718  BANKROLL - $19,282
     
    SUNDAY PLAYS, ALL SOCCER SO FAR:
     
    NEWCASTLE  -.5 (-113)   $339 FOR $300
    FULHAM PK +125  $300 FOR $375
    FC BARCELONA -1.5 (-165)  $300 FOR $181
    HUELVA PK +140  $300 FOR $420
    LEVANTE PK +135  $300 FOR $405
     
    These picks are late sorry. I made my bets then went to sleep last night before posting. Dont think it matters, noone is paying any attention yet. The Newcastle game has already lost and 2 others are tied, hopefully I can have a 3-2 day.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
    BE BACK WITH A COUPLE SUPER BOWL PLAYS
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    SUN 2/3
     
    YTD - (6-8) -$718  BANKROLL - $19,282
     
    SUNDAY PLAYS, ALL SOCCER SO FAR:
     
    NEWCASTLE  -.5 (-113)   $339 FOR $300
    FULHAM PK +125  $300 FOR $375
    FC BARCELONA -1.5 (-165)  $300 FOR $181
    HUELVA PK +140  $300 FOR $420
    LEVANTE PK +135  $300 FOR $405
     
    These picks are late sorry. I made my bets then went to sleep last night before posting. Dont think it matters, noone is paying any attention yet. The Newcastle game has already lost and 2 others are tied, hopefully I can have a 3-2 day.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
    BE BACK WITH A COUPLE SUPER BOWL PLAYS
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2008 - 1:44 PM ET #12

    Sun Plays so far:
    NEWCASTLE  -.5 (-113)   $339 FOR $300
    FULHAM PK +125  $300 FOR $375
    FC BARCELONA -1.5 (-165)  $300 FOR $181
    HUELVA PK +140  $300 FOR $420
    LEVANTE PK +135  $300 FOR $405
     
    ADDING:
    MONEY-LINE PARLAY:
    PISTONS -240 AND PATRIOTS -455
    $330 FOR $240
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
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    Sun Plays so far:
    NEWCASTLE  -.5 (-113)   $339 FOR $300
    FULHAM PK +125  $300 FOR $375
    FC BARCELONA -1.5 (-165)  $300 FOR $181
    HUELVA PK +140  $300 FOR $420
    LEVANTE PK +135  $300 FOR $405
     
    ADDING:
    MONEY-LINE PARLAY:
    PISTONS -240 AND PATRIOTS -455
    $330 FOR $240
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2008 - 6:17 PM ET #13

    adding:
     
    pats team total over 33 (-145)  $330 for $227
     
    gl
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    adding:
     
    pats team total over 33 (-145)  $330 for $227
     
    gl
     
    itsbadlands
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2008 - 10:51 PM ET #14

    good luck man
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    good luck man
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2008 - 11:16 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Sun Plays so far:
    NEWCASTLE  -.5 (-113)   $339 FOR $300
    FULHAM PK +125  $300 FOR $375
    FC BARCELONA -1.5 (-165)  $300 FOR $181
    HUELVA PK +140  $300 FOR $420
    LEVANTE PK +135  $300 FOR $405
     
    ADDING:
    MONEY-LINE PARLAY:
    PISTONS -240 AND PATRIOTS -455
    $330 FOR $240
     
    PLUS:
    PATS TEAM TOTAL OVER 33 (-145)  $330 FOR $227
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     

     

     

    DAY - (1-5)  -$1224

    YTD - (7-13)  -$1,942

    BANKROLL - $18,058

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Sun Plays so far:
    NEWCASTLE  -.5 (-113)   $339 FOR $300
    FULHAM PK +125  $300 FOR $375
    FC BARCELONA -1.5 (-165)  $300 FOR $181
    HUELVA PK +140  $300 FOR $420
    LEVANTE PK +135  $300 FOR $405
     
    ADDING:
    MONEY-LINE PARLAY:
    PISTONS -240 AND PATRIOTS -455
    $330 FOR $240
     
    PLUS:
    PATS TEAM TOTAL OVER 33 (-145)  $330 FOR $227
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     

     

     

    DAY - (1-5)  -$1224

    YTD - (7-13)  -$1,942

    BANKROLL - $18,058

     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2008 - 11:28 PM ET #16

    Tough tough start to the system as I have lost 10% of my bankroll already. Its amazing that I am starting off in such a horrible slump, some crazy things have been happening capping off with the Pats tanking today against the G-Men. WOW what a game. Anyways, this is a fucking battle and I will just scale my bets accordingly and hopefully a nice 10-5 stretch is awaiting that will put me right back where I need to be. If I can hit just 50% of my picks I will be ahead. Until tomorrow
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    Tough tough start to the system as I have lost 10% of my bankroll already. Its amazing that I am starting off in such a horrible slump, some crazy things have been happening capping off with the Pats tanking today against the G-Men. WOW what a game. Anyways, this is a fucking battle and I will just scale my bets accordingly and hopefully a nice 10-5 stretch is awaiting that will put me right back where I need to be. If I can hit just 50% of my picks I will be ahead. Until tomorrow
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2008 - 3:26 PM ET #17

    Early soccer play for today:
     
    Cameroon/Tunisia  OVER 2.5 (+115)  $350 for $402
     
    glllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
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    Early soccer play for today:
     
    Cameroon/Tunisia  OVER 2.5 (+115)  $350 for $402
     
    glllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2008 - 3:37 PM ET #18

    MONDAY 2/4
     
    YTD - (7-13)  -$1,942   BANKROLL - $18,058
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
    CAMEROON/TUNISIA OVER 2.5 (+115)  $350 FOR $402 (listed prev)
     
    UTAH -3 (-120)   $480 FOR $400
     
    PORTLAND -2   $440 FOR $400
     
    Might add a few later but probably not.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    MONDAY 2/4
     
    YTD - (7-13)  -$1,942   BANKROLL - $18,058
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
    CAMEROON/TUNISIA OVER 2.5 (+115)  $350 FOR $402 (listed prev)
     
    UTAH -3 (-120)   $480 FOR $400
     
    PORTLAND -2   $440 FOR $400
     
    Might add a few later but probably not.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posts: 3736
    Posted: Feb. 5, 2008 - 1:27 AM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    MONDAY 2/4
     
    YTD - (7-13)  -$1,942   BANKROLL - $18,058
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
    CAMEROON/TUNISIA OVER 2.5 (+115)  $350 FOR $402 (listed prev)
     
    UTAH -3 (-120)   $480 FOR $400
     
    PORTLAND -2   $440 FOR $400
     
    Might add a few later but probably not.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

    2-1 +$362

     

    YTD - (9-14)  -$1,580   BANKROLL - $18,420

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    MONDAY 2/4
     
    YTD - (7-13)  -$1,942   BANKROLL - $18,058
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
    CAMEROON/TUNISIA OVER 2.5 (+115)  $350 FOR $402 (listed prev)
     
    UTAH -3 (-120)   $480 FOR $400
     
    PORTLAND -2   $440 FOR $400
     
    Might add a few later but probably not.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

    2-1 +$362

     

    YTD - (9-14)  -$1,580   BANKROLL - $18,420

     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2008 - 1:31 PM ET #20

    TUES 2/5
     
    YTD - (9-14)  -$1,580
     
    BANKROLL - $18,420
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
     
    CHELTENHAM +265   $200 FOR $530
    CHELTENHAM TIE +225  $200 FOR $450
     
    BARNET +335  $200 FOR $670
    BARNET TIE +240  $200 FOR $480
     
    LINCOLN CITY/mac over 2.5 (+105)  $400 FOR $420
     
    SPURS -5 (-120)  $400 FOR $333
     
     
    Will probably add a few later after the Soccer games are final.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    TUES 2/5
     
    YTD - (9-14)  -$1,580
     
    BANKROLL - $18,420
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
     
    CHELTENHAM +265   $200 FOR $530
    CHELTENHAM TIE +225  $200 FOR $450
     
    BARNET +335  $200 FOR $670
    BARNET TIE +240  $200 FOR $480
     
    LINCOLN CITY/mac over 2.5 (+105)  $400 FOR $420
     
    SPURS -5 (-120)  $400 FOR $333
     
     
    Will probably add a few later after the Soccer games are final.
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2008 - 3:23 PM ET #21

    Adding:

     

    WASH/PHI OVER 189.5  $440 for $400

     

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

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    Adding:

     

    WASH/PHI OVER 189.5  $440 for $400

     

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     
    xar86413
    xar86413
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    Posts: 3541
    Posted: Feb. 5, 2008 - 4:24 PM ET #22

    Just curious, but you said you were going to bet 1% of your roll. But I see that yer laying 440 to win 400 with a roll of 18,000 which is closer to 2.4% ..
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    Just curious, but you said you were going to bet 1% of your roll. But I see that yer laying 440 to win 400 with a roll of 18,000 which is closer to 2.4% ..
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2008 - 6:45 PM ET #23

    Adding:
     
    ILLINOIS ST. -4  $440 FOR $400
     
    BUF/N. ILL OVER 143   $440 FOR $400
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    Adding:
     
    ILLINOIS ST. -4  $440 FOR $400
     
    BUF/N. ILL OVER 143   $440 FOR $400
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
    ChanceP
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    Posts: 3736
    Posted: Feb. 5, 2008 - 6:47 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by xar86413:

    Just curious, but you said you were going to bet 1% of your roll. But I see that yer laying 440 to win 400 with a roll of 18,000 which is closer to 2.4% ..

     

    My initial unit size was 200, which is 1% of my bankroll. Unfortunately, due to my bad start, my money management system has called for me to step up the bets at this time. Once I get back to .500 or if I was there now my bet sizes would be right around 1%

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    Quote Originally Posted by xar86413:

    Just curious, but you said you were going to bet 1% of your roll. But I see that yer laying 440 to win 400 with a roll of 18,000 which is closer to 2.4% ..

     

    My initial unit size was 200, which is 1% of my bankroll. Unfortunately, due to my bad start, my money management system has called for me to step up the bets at this time. Once I get back to .500 or if I was there now my bet sizes would be right around 1%

     
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2008 - 11:34 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    TUES 2/5
     
    YTD - (9-14)  -$1,580
     
    BANKROLL - $18,420
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
     
    CHELTENHAM +265   $200 FOR $530
    CHELTENHAM TIE +225  $200 FOR $450
     
    BARNET +335  $200 FOR $670
    BARNET TIE +240  $200 FOR $480
     
    LINCOLN CITY/mac over 2.5 (+105)  $400 FOR $420
     
    SPURS -5 (-120)  $400 FOR $333
     

    WASH/PHI OVER 189.5  $440 for $400

    ILLINOIS ST. -4  $440 FOR $400
     
    BUF/N. ILL OVER 143   $440 FOR $400
     
     
     
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

    DAY - (4-2)  +$713

     

    YTD - (13-16)  -$867    BANKROLL - $19,133

     

    Well finally a little something to smile about the last 2 days as I have turned a small profit yesterday and a descent one today. My goal amazing is actually to just hit 50% or better of my plays as that will be enough with my money management system to attain a nice profit. If I could be lucky enough and hit between 53% and 55% I will really be in good shape as my money management system in effect adds 3% to that pct. Back to (13-16) after I was (7-13) just 2 days ago. Hopefullly by Sunday night I can be back at .500

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    TUES 2/5
     
    YTD - (9-14)  -$1,580
     
    BANKROLL - $18,420
     
    TODAY'S PLAYS:
     
    CHELTENHAM +265   $200 FOR $530
    CHELTENHAM TIE +225  $200 FOR $450
     
    BARNET +335  $200 FOR $670
    BARNET TIE +240  $200 FOR $480
     
    LINCOLN CITY/mac over 2.5 (+105)  $400 FOR $420
     
    SPURS -5 (-120)  $400 FOR $333
     

    WASH/PHI OVER 189.5  $440 for $400

    ILLINOIS ST. -4  $440 FOR $400
     
    BUF/N. ILL OVER 143   $440 FOR $400
     
     
     
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

    DAY - (4-2)  +$713

     

    YTD - (13-16)  -$867    BANKROLL - $19,133

     

    Well finally a little something to smile about the last 2 days as I have turned a small profit yesterday and a descent one today. My goal amazing is actually to just hit 50% or better of my plays as that will be enough with my money management system to attain a nice profit. If I could be lucky enough and hit between 53% and 55% I will really be in good shape as my money management system in effect adds 3% to that pct. Back to (13-16) after I was (7-13) just 2 days ago. Hopefullly by Sunday night I can be back at .500

     

    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

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