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Bump Set Spike - (The BSS Strategy..not quite BS)

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
ever since i started playing team totals, from time to time i found myself confused at these random blow-outs caused by teams who should be finding the under.  Why on Earth did WSH/FLA go over?  How does NYR/MTL go over? 
 
..until I looked back in their schedule to find that visitors who have played 3 games in the past 5 calendar days, more often than not, bust over. 
 
this can only be explained by sloppy play due to fatigue.  if anyone has ever played hockey before, you know that no matter how tired you are, you can always skate hard w/ a puck on your stick...but things aren't so easy when you play defense.  this creates a highly explosive offensive game, with funny penalties - goalies throwing the puck over the glass, too many men, etc.
 
since dec 1, this system is 6-1.  hardly any evidence.  but i'll continue to monitor this, and update ea day.
 
i think this could be used quite appropriately as a filter in conjunction to another strategy here.
 
B2B visitors have a similar relationship to Overs, but not as dominant.
 
 
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Posted: #2
my appologies, my TT record is 6-1.  the BSS strategy is 5-0.
 
 
Dec02
TOR in SJ = 5-2 SJ
 
Dec03
ATL in OTT = 5-1 OTT
ANA in CHI = 4-2 CHI
DAL in EDM = 5-2 EDM
 
Dec04
TOR in PHX = 6-3 PHX
 
NOTES:
1. ATL, DAL, and TOR were all B2B as well.
 
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks for posting that information and i will be watching this information. I think its a great strategy to follow and BOL

 
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Posted: #4
What is BSS? can you explain please?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
for strictly B2B visitors, the Over is 6-0.
 
DEC 02
TOR in SJ = 5-2 SJ
LA in PHX = 4-2 PHX
 
DEC 03
ATL in OTT = 5-1 OTT
DAL in EDM = 4-2 EDM
 
DEC 04
PIT in CAR = 5-2 PIT
NYR in MTL = 6-2 MTL
 
NOTES:
1. The Home teams are also 5-1 here
 
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Posted: #6
BSS = Bump Set Spike.
 
a silly name that i gave, to reflect a 3 games per 5 days.
 
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Posted: #7
Dec 05 plays.
 
DAL has played 3 games in 5 days, but home teams don't seem to be impacted as much by this. Or at all, thus far.  The last time a home team had played 3 games in 5 days, was when minny pounded stl 4-0.
 
COL is B2B visitor, so play over for sure.
 
Vanny is also B2B visitor, so I play the over.
 
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Posted: #8
Ok, good stuff so far. I think you've got a solid foundation to get something started.

You'll have to decide what kind of money management to make use of as we go along but that's something that can depend on the preliminary results as you start.

BSS = Bump Set Spike ( where does the name come from ? )

Also, while I do understand how you came about this strategy and the logical implications of travelling, playing often, lazy play , ect. have you given any thought as to what you will be doing if 2 teams that are playing each other both had played the night before ( must not happen that often) .

Best advice right now is to track everything and then filter it down to a strategy that maximizes the winning games and reduced the risk involved even if you us a long-term doubling up money management system ( martingale ).

BOL . I'll be following this thread as well.

 
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Posted: #9
And, a quick note about tracking the system. It's always easier to include the actual total of a game in each of your posts beside the game that you are playing since they have a tendency to fluctuate somewhat depending on where you're getting the number.

You'll be betting the over for any total right? 5, 5.5 , 6  ?
 
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Posted: #10
thus far, i'm tracking strictly 5.5.
 
there's no chase strategy here.  not so far.
 
remember, we're strictly watching b2b visitors.  if a home team happens to be b2b as well, then put 20 units down.  :)  jk.  i'll track that too.
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by unohuim:

thus far, i'm tracking strictly 5.5.
 
there's no chase strategy here.  not so far.
 
remember, we're strictly watching b2b visitors.  if a home team happens to be b2b as well, then put 20 units down.  :)  jk.  i'll track that too.
 


Got a feeling you won't be pleased with the results if you don't chase a bit.

Keep that in mind when tracking. Just note what was the longest consecutive losses you encountered. Then, you can devise an appropriate strategy.
 
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Posted: #12
damn , sorry about messed up post , having trouble with my quoting

meant to say this :

Got a feeling you won't be pleased with the results if you don't chase a bit.

Keep that in mind when tracking. Just note what was the longest consecutive losses you encountered. Then, you can devise an appropriate strategy.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

damn , sorry about messed up post , having trouble with my quoting

meant to say this :

Got a feeling you won't be pleased with the results if you don't chase a bit.

Keep that in mind when tracking. Just note what was the longest consecutive losses you encountered. Then, you can devise an appropriate strategy.

So your saying that the home team B2B is working also?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by unohuim:

thus far, i'm tracking strictly 5.5.
 
there's no chase strategy here.  not so far.
 
remember, we're strictly watching b2b visitors.  if a home team happens to be b2b as well, then put 20 units down.  :)  jk.  i'll track that too.
 Sorry ment for this for unohuim so does this strategy work for B2B home teams also and going off the road and coming home?
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #15
keep up the good work
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:


So your saying that the home team B2B is working also?

sure, but not quite so impactful as b2b visitors.

 
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Posted: #17
Tough break yesterday night with only the two games you were interested in not hitting the over.

Get it done next time. BOL .
 
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Posted: #18
yeah, that sucked, but I only played over based on them being b2b.

but, MIN is the only play tonight for 3 games in the past 5 days.  and they are b2b.  that combo for visitors is crazy.

b2b visitors over is now 6-2.
3gms/5days is still 5-0

my only play today is minny O +5.5
 
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Posted: #19
what about Edmonton on b2b games?
 
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Posted: #20
So the play is on the 3rd game in five days?

Tomrrows plays
Was/Car over
Phx/Chi over
both these game fall into 3gm/5dy and b2b visitor. So pretty powerful overs?

Cbj/Ana over
Cal/Nyr over
Van/Col over

Please let me know if these are correct. Very nice work here.
 
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Posted: #21
my apologies, but i did not do anything for sunday.
minny's game saturday made the over 5-1, for its first loss....but what a loss.
 
without using this system, i would have put minny on the under, so perhaps there is some more filters required to put in here still. 
 
however, 3 games in past 5 days are still 0-6.  and b2b visitors are 3-7.
 
NO PLAYS TONIGHT.
 
something interesting is that 3 games in past 5 days home teams are 3-1, and the under is 4-0.  not making any plays, but keep an eye on the under for NSH/STL and BUF/PIT games.  Also see if the home teams win here.
 
 
 
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Posted: #22
to be more clear.
 
home teams playing visiting teams who have played 3 games in past 5 days, are 6-0.  the over on these games is 5-1.
 
home teams playing b2b visitors are 7-3.  the over on these games is 6-4.
 
home teams who have played 3 games in 5 days are 3-1.  the over is 0-4.
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #23
Interesting trends. Tough part now is to organize the info into a suitable system or strategy. Like you said, filters could always get thrown in or even better, a mix of handicapping and system play could be done.

BOL with the upcoming plays .
 
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Posted: #24
exactly
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

So the play is on the 3rd game in five days?

Tomrrows plays
Was/Car over
Phx/Chi over
both these game fall into 3gm/5dy and b2b visitor. So pretty powerful overs?

Cbj/Ana over
Cal/Nyr over
Van/Col over

Please let me know if these are correct. Very nice work here.

didn't mean to ignore this.  Yes, you are correct.  I didn't take these games into consideration, but I should.

The Over plays for Sunday were,

WSH/CAR
PHX/CHI

 

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