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I'm looking for some input/criticism of the baseball system I will be using again this year. I used it last year, returned about 80% profit on my $5000 bankroll. Mistakes were made, and so I'm trying to improve the system.
It's your standard chase system. I bet every home team every game. I'm trying to avoid long home streaks, which will obviously break the bankroll. Home teams win between 52 and 54% of the time, and while that is factored into the lines, it does reduce the likelihood of longer losing streaks.
Starting with $10,000 and initial bet size of $10. There will be approximately 1300 home wins over the course of the season.
Risk/reward: I'm trying to more than double my bankroll. I realize that I will go broke sometimes, but provided I go broke less than every other year, and more than double when I win, I'll make money in the long run.
Some modifications/flexibility:
1. Increase bet size. When a team is hot, or if the bankroll has grown later in the season. I learned to be careful with this, and won't go any higher than a $30 initial bet size this year.
2. Switch to the road team for a series. This is dangerous, but when a team has lost 3 or 4 in a row, and the road team is much better but the line doesn't quite reflect it, this may be an option.
3. Cut off losing streaks. Typically, when I can afford only 2 more losses, I've only lost about 15% of the bankroll. This is where it makes a little sense to cut off teams. However, this burned me multiple times last year (team won right after cutoff) resulting in much lower winnings.
Your thoughts/concerns/criticisms?
It's your standard chase system. I bet every home team every game. I'm trying to avoid long home streaks, which will obviously break the bankroll. Home teams win between 52 and 54% of the time, and while that is factored into the lines, it does reduce the likelihood of longer losing streaks.
Starting with $10,000 and initial bet size of $10. There will be approximately 1300 home wins over the course of the season.
Risk/reward: I'm trying to more than double my bankroll. I realize that I will go broke sometimes, but provided I go broke less than every other year, and more than double when I win, I'll make money in the long run.
Some modifications/flexibility:
1. Increase bet size. When a team is hot, or if the bankroll has grown later in the season. I learned to be careful with this, and won't go any higher than a $30 initial bet size this year.
2. Switch to the road team for a series. This is dangerous, but when a team has lost 3 or 4 in a row, and the road team is much better but the line doesn't quite reflect it, this may be an option.
3. Cut off losing streaks. Typically, when I can afford only 2 more losses, I've only lost about 15% of the bankroll. This is where it makes a little sense to cut off teams. However, this burned me multiple times last year (team won right after cutoff) resulting in much lower winnings.
Your thoughts/concerns/criticisms?
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