Posted:
#51
ok first weekend of NCAA system plays coming up! So we have New Mexico and Miami-Ohio correct?
0
A conference a day (NCAAF results using Morrison's NFL system)
Posted:
#53
Hi guys, I haven't been on lately, been very busy. I am still working the filters. One of the filters in place is a what I call a 75-point rule. This is when a team that has lost its previous three games SU by more than a combined 75 points. When this situation arises, we actually filter that play. However, the anti-filter I have been working on states that a filtered play becomes a play if the margin at which that team loses to the spread decreases over its last three games.
One example this week is New Mexico (which lost ATS by 19, 17.5 and 7.5 in its last three games respectively). New Mexico is considered to be improving against the spread with each game. New Mexico has lost SU in its last three by a combined 93 points and would originally be a no play. So now New Mexico is favored here. Also, according to the system, we are supposed to bet the ML on a team that is favored... I placed a cap on the spread at -10. So you should place a bet on New Mexico ML (if you get it) or smaller on -9.5 if you don't like the juice.
The other team, Miami-Ohio (losing ATS by 25.5, 9.5, 6.5 respectively) was outscored by its opponents in the last contests by 112). The Redhawks also fit this weeks scenario of a filtered play that has been anti-filtered. Miami-Ohio is +7.5.
I will track the stats using this thread. Since I am still working on the filters, it remains to be seen if the anti-filter would benefit us more by bringing back the wins (and some of the losses) or just leaving them off.
So in JM's notation, the plays for this week would be:
NEW MEXICO ML [A] or
NEW MEXICO -9.5 [A] at smaller bet
MIAMI-OHIO +7.5 [A]
I will have a full explanation of the system in a few days. A couple people have already mentioned, it may be a good idea to play these using Labourchere. I will note all records as both series wins and losses as well as straight wins and losses. Let's start the season out right.
Cheers!
One example this week is New Mexico (which lost ATS by 19, 17.5 and 7.5 in its last three games respectively). New Mexico is considered to be improving against the spread with each game. New Mexico has lost SU in its last three by a combined 93 points and would originally be a no play. So now New Mexico is favored here. Also, according to the system, we are supposed to bet the ML on a team that is favored... I placed a cap on the spread at -10. So you should place a bet on New Mexico ML (if you get it) or smaller on -9.5 if you don't like the juice.
The other team, Miami-Ohio (losing ATS by 25.5, 9.5, 6.5 respectively) was outscored by its opponents in the last contests by 112). The Redhawks also fit this weeks scenario of a filtered play that has been anti-filtered. Miami-Ohio is +7.5.
I will track the stats using this thread. Since I am still working on the filters, it remains to be seen if the anti-filter would benefit us more by bringing back the wins (and some of the losses) or just leaving them off.
So in JM's notation, the plays for this week would be:
NEW MEXICO ML [A] or
NEW MEXICO -9.5 [A] at smaller bet
MIAMI-OHIO +7.5 [A]
I will have a full explanation of the system in a few days. A couple people have already mentioned, it may be a good idea to play these using Labourchere. I will note all records as both series wins and losses as well as straight wins and losses. Let's start the season out right.
Cheers!
0
Posted:
#74
That one I can see...Thanks Kangy. Only play I've got today is Bowling Green at -1.5. I decided I was willing to part with the 1.5 for not laying the extra juice. This is highly unusual for me, usually I have about 8-10 plays on a typical college saturday!!! Restraint doesnt come easily for me. But there is no point playing a system if you are going to offset your winnings with losses on games that you are only playing for the action.....
we'll see how long I can resist.... + units will help 
0
Hot Forum Topics
