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A conference a day (NCAAF results using Morrison's NFL system)

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Posts: 209

cranemonkey

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 28

Posted: Nov. 5, 2009 - 7:30 PM ET #151

kangy,

need your help here, this doesnt apply to the system and i apologize in advance for posting here. did you see the line on the houston and tulsa game? tulse is the favorite!!!! i would think houston would be a 10 to 14 pt fav. is this a mis print or am i missing something???????? help thanks

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 5, 2009 - 7:51 PM ET #152

It's probably right. The line has flip flopped like a teeter totter with Houston as a 1 pt favorite now. A lot of middling going on. Problem is, you cannot middle around a PK, since there are OT games now. Bettors must think this game will be close. Houston is on the road here. Ranked road teams have a tendancy to lose to non-ranked opponents.

With something like this, I might lean toward the over here. You can bet if a line is screwy, it is for a reason. Sounds like Vegas is begging you to take Houston, however, it could be a trap. I would not be surprised to see Tulsa take this one straight up, since they are playing with revenge. Just my thoughts. You should start a thread in the appropriate forum and see what the user community's reaction is.

cranemonkey

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 28

Posted: Nov. 5, 2009 - 9:01 PM ET #153

thanks for your insight k! think i will leave it alone and focus on our system, thats usually when i make bad decisions when i stray !!! lol lol

rm2673

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 252

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 12:44 AM ET #154

Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

rm2673: This will not work exactly with NBA. The best I have seen is if you take a 4 game SU and ATS but I am still in the testing phases of that and not using it this year.

This is for another thread, but basically I would play 3 lines. Say your bankroll is $1000, use lines like this:
25-25-25-25
25-25-25-25
25-25-25-25

30% gain when you clear all three lines. On a loss for a game, distribute the losses and add to the last number... example losing 50. We distribute 17 across and add to the last number.
25-25-25-42
25-25-25-42
25-25-25-42

On a series loss, distribute amongst all three lines and add an extra entry:
25-25-25-42-30
25-25-25-42-30
25-25-25-42-30

If one line gets shorter than the others, I go after the longer line first. (next bet to win 55)
25-25-30
25-25-25-42-30-30
30

As an added bonus, when you lose 50 to make 40, you can distribute the 40 across the three lines (17 on each) and I like to add 1 or 2 to that number, so that I pick up additional dollars at the end.

Montana: My exit strategy is when a team has less than three games left, play about half the size and use labby if you aren't already. We get just as many wins in the last three games as we do losses of one or two, so play wisely.

so the lines don't correlate with games A, B, and C? ie I can play a A game on line 2?

and what happens when there is one number left in one of the lines?

can i use the same lines for ncaa football and the NBA games for instance?

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 6:03 AM ET #155

Some people may decide to use the lines for all sports. I use them for each individual sport for tracking purposes. The reason behind this is that you may have 3 or 4 NBA games, 3 or 4 CFB games, 2 or 3 MLB or NFL, etc. So with 3 lines, it can get pretty hairy unless your lines are extremely long.

The lines do not correlate to a specific "chase" game. You could have one line for each sport, for example. I have mulitple lines for each sport.

You just need to track them very well.

When left with one number left, play it by itself, or if you have two lines with one entry left, merge the lines. However, when a line disappears, it remains that way until all others are depleted before moving to the next level, and increasing your lines.

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 56

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 7:09 AM ET #156

I'm not sure what to do about Col. St. one book is offering +1 while another is offering PK, what is PK? you would think these books would have a FAQ for these questions.

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 7:45 AM ET #157

Assphalt, PK is a pick'em. It basically means it is a toss up and you are betting that team to win straight up. If you notice on games with PK, there are no moneyline prices, because in essence, you are playing the moneyline. If you can get it at +1 at your one book for the same price as the ML (PK) price at the other, go with the +1 - it is a little better. But in all honesty, you are betting the team to win straight up.

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 56

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 7:56 AM ET #158

Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

Assphalt, PK is a pick'em. It basically means it is a toss up and you are betting that team to win straight up. If you notice on games with PK, there are no moneyline prices, because in essence, you are playing the moneyline. If you can get it at +1 at your one book for the same price as the ML (PK) price at the other, go with the +1 - it is a little better. But in all honesty, you are betting the team to win straight up.

Thanks, I got it now

Deb

deutscher

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 20

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 10:22 AM ET #159

Quote Originally Posted by ASSPHALTCOWGIRL:

I'm not sure what to do about Col. St. one book is offering +1 while another is offering PK, what is PK? you would think these books would have a FAQ for these questions.

What book are you using? If they dont have a comprehensive FAQ section with live help to answer your Q's they dont want your money!

rm2673

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 252

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 1:07 PM ET #160

wow so assuming you have 1000 BR, isn't 50 too much? that is 5% of your total BR.

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 6:33 PM ET #161

It was meant as a guide for clarity, but you can adjust your lines to 15 or 20 and/or make the lines twice as long. For true Labby to work, you need to win better than 50% long term to clear the lines.

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 6, 2009 - 6:36 PM ET #162

Actually that win rate is 33.33%. So you need to win over a third of your games long term to clear lines in a true Labourchere strategy (playing one line).

If you win exact a third of your games, you will never clear your line.

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 7, 2009 - 1:13 PM ET #163

Again, here are the Week 10 system plays for the weekend...

COLORADO STATE +1 [A] @ UNLV (I took the ML)
SAN JOSE STATE +13.5 [A] vs. Nevada - get it at 14
TULANE +6.5 [A] vs. UTEP - get it at 7
WESTERN KENTUCKY +24 [B] vs. Troy

Good luck to all

BigPod

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 771

Posted: Nov. 7, 2009 - 8:12 PM ET #164

congrats on tulane and w kentucky. hopefully hit the other 2 as well.

hard8

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 1019

Posted: Nov. 7, 2009 - 10:36 PM ET #165

I like it when the A bet hits

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 9, 2009 - 9:50 PM ET #166

As we near the end of the season, I have started to weed out all the teams that will not make the system plays. I have counted 42 teams that remain as possible plays. For reference only, here are the teams. These are not bets or plays!!!

Arizona, Arkansas St., Boise St., Buffalo, California, Central Michigan, Colorado St., Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida St., Hawai'i, Iowa St., Kansas, LSU, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, New Mexico St., North Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rutgers, San Diego, San Jose St., South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Southern Miss, Texas A&M, Toledo, Utah St., UTEP, Virginia, Washington St., Western Michigan, Wyoming

The plays will be posted in the next day or two!!!

kevin2565

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 219

Posted: Nov. 10, 2009 - 11:08 AM ET #167

Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

As we near the end of the season, I have started to weed out all the teams that will not make the system plays. I have counted 42 teams that remain as possible plays. For reference only, here are the teams. These are not bets or plays!!!

Arizona, Arkansas St., Boise St., Buffalo, California, Central Michigan, Colorado St., Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida St., Hawai'i, Iowa St., Kansas, LSU, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, New Mexico St., North Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rutgers, San Diego, San Jose St., South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Southern Miss, Texas A&M, Toledo, Utah St., UTEP, Virginia, Washington St., Western Michigan, Wyoming

The plays will be posted in the next day or two!!!

Cheers

MoneyManager09

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 846

Posted: Nov. 10, 2009 - 12:44 PM ET #168

glad to see Buffalo and Rugters for these week days play. I know its not a play or lean but its good to see a possibility.

ASSPHALTCOWGIRL

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 56

Posted: Nov. 11, 2009 - 2:33 PM ET #169

So far we got Colorado St and San Jose St as B bets

usakangy

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 2894

Posted: Nov. 11, 2009 - 6:40 PM ET #170

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 17-8
Series......... 17-0 (2 pending)

Here are the Week 11 plays (current Covers lines)

SAN JOSE ST +13 [B] @ Utah State
NEW MEXICO ST +18.5 [A] @ Hawai'i
VIRGINIA +4.5 [A] vs Boston College
KANSAS +3.5 [A] vs Nebraska - warrants a play this week
MEMPHIS +1 [A] vs UAB

MICHIGAN +8.5 [A] @ Wisconsin (optional) - only two games left

COLORADO ST [B] - idle this week

Rice is no longer on the "watch" list with their ATS win last week.

For optional plays, play smaller or use a labourchure strategy.

Good luck to all!!

kevin2565

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 219

Posted: Nov. 11, 2009 - 9:08 PM ET #171

Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 17-8
Series......... 17-0 (2 pending)

Here are the Week 11 plays (current Covers lines)

SAN JOSE ST +13 [B] @ Utah State
NEW MEXICO ST +18.5 [A] @ Hawai'i
VIRGINIA +4.5 [A] vs Boston College
KANSAS +3.5 [A] vs Nebraska - warrants a play this week
MEMPHIS +1 [A] vs UAB

MICHIGAN +8.5 [A] @ Wisconsin (optional) - only two games left

COLORADO ST [B] - idle this week

Rice is no longer on the "watch" list with their ATS win last week.

For optional plays, play smaller or use a labourchure strategy.

Good luck to all!!