Posted:
#626
good luck on game 7 eagle
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6 Game Martingale All Or Nothing Copycat Chase
Posted:
#633
Level 7 did lose, but not because of the picks. I had back to back winning plays that would have been that pick and the beginning of a new series , but because I was on vacation in a remote area I couldnt get the plays in. Which brought us to last nights loser. It was my fault for being where I was, but had no idea that that would be a problem until it was too late. I feel aweful that I screwed over the people that signed up and even offered their money back, but there was no way around what happened because it was unforseen. All that aside, we start the recovery phase tomorrow. So no, there is no R.I.P. yet. The only reason the updates have slowed is because I have totally been out of pocket, not hiding or whatever.
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Posted:
#634
Once I got back into civilization last night and realized that the 2 picks that I couldnt email the members or get in myself had won(A's and Conn. from WNBA) I knew we were screwed. Wins are to hard to come by so you cant waste 2 in a row in the middle of a series. Then when last nights play lost I was so angry over the whole situation I didnt even sleep. I have learned a tough lesson in professionalism. Unfortunately, it was at the expense of a group of people that had faith in me. Thats what got me the most, not my own bankroll loss.
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Posted:
#635
I have seen many very good cappers on various forums go tout over the years. It is very common for them to start losing when they have other peoples money relying on their picks.
I am not bashing supereagle for any reason, I can not blame him for capitalizing on the demand for his picks, I just believe the pressure causes some people to rush their picks subconsciously. This in turn can lead to more loses.
Anyway gl to you eagle and those who follow!
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Posted:
#637
Supereagle, since you didn't address me laughing at you for going tout, I'll go ahead and explain anyways:
**Before I get started, this has nothing to do with the fact that you lost, and everything to do with you charging a fee for a system that is proven to fail.**
I've been watching this thread closely over the months and offering advice when I could; but mostly, I've just enjoyed watching another capper trying to make steady profits in a collective effort to DESTROY THE BOOKS. All was going well until you decided to charge money for your fatalistic system that is guaranteed to lose in the long run. I will keep this short and simple... but you have conned noobs into thinking they can make money following a system developed in the 18th century (that also went extinct in the 18th century); therefore you are a crook, here is why:
1. No matter how many games you play (this could be a 20 game marty), you will always have a negative expected value. Negative expected values will always lose in the long run. Martingale simply compounds this problem.
2. All of the games are independent of each other and thus have no correlation. It doesn't matter whether you won or lost your last game, the odds and percentages are brand new every time. This means you have no better chance to win your last bet than your first bet.
3. The later you get into the martingale progression, the worst the bet becomes in terms of monetary considerations. By the end of it, you are wagering A LOT to win very little.
4. The odds of busting (7 losses in a row) is about 40%... so going into a new series, the player knows it is very likely they will bust. In fact, the odds of the player busting only INCREASES as you bet more and play longer. By the time you reach 250 bets, the chances that you will have lost 7 in a row is up around 90%.
5. A smart bookie will always allow martingale players to play (and may even comp them nicely if it's in Vegas) because martingale players POSE NO THREAT TO BOOKIES, it's a fatalistic system that bankrupts people in an instant.
6. YOU WILL LOSE.
Do the right thing and give back all the money you've taken through your site and end the website...
**If anyone tries to counter-argue what I have said, please do your research and calculations first, you will quickly realize how stupid it is to pay for a system that is guaranteed to lose you money.**
**Before I get started, this has nothing to do with the fact that you lost, and everything to do with you charging a fee for a system that is proven to fail.**
I've been watching this thread closely over the months and offering advice when I could; but mostly, I've just enjoyed watching another capper trying to make steady profits in a collective effort to DESTROY THE BOOKS. All was going well until you decided to charge money for your fatalistic system that is guaranteed to lose in the long run. I will keep this short and simple... but you have conned noobs into thinking they can make money following a system developed in the 18th century (that also went extinct in the 18th century); therefore you are a crook, here is why:
1. No matter how many games you play (this could be a 20 game marty), you will always have a negative expected value. Negative expected values will always lose in the long run. Martingale simply compounds this problem.
2. All of the games are independent of each other and thus have no correlation. It doesn't matter whether you won or lost your last game, the odds and percentages are brand new every time. This means you have no better chance to win your last bet than your first bet.
3. The later you get into the martingale progression, the worst the bet becomes in terms of monetary considerations. By the end of it, you are wagering A LOT to win very little.
4. The odds of busting (7 losses in a row) is about 40%... so going into a new series, the player knows it is very likely they will bust. In fact, the odds of the player busting only INCREASES as you bet more and play longer. By the time you reach 250 bets, the chances that you will have lost 7 in a row is up around 90%.
5. A smart bookie will always allow martingale players to play (and may even comp them nicely if it's in Vegas) because martingale players POSE NO THREAT TO BOOKIES, it's a fatalistic system that bankrupts people in an instant.
6. YOU WILL LOSE.
Do the right thing and give back all the money you've taken through your site and end the website...
**If anyone tries to counter-argue what I have said, please do your research and calculations first, you will quickly realize how stupid it is to pay for a system that is guaranteed to lose you money.**
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Posted:
#638
Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:
Once I got back into civilization last night and realized that the 2 picks that I couldnt email the members or get in myself had won(A's and Conn. from WNBA) I knew we were screwed. Wins are to hard to come by so you cant waste 2 in a row in the middle of a series. Then when last nights play lost I was so angry over the whole situation I didnt even sleep. I have learned a tough lesson in professionalism. Unfortunately, it was at the expense of a group of people that had faith in me. Thats what got me the most, not my own bankroll loss.
Super- I too have been following this thread. I was very excited you were able to hit your goal. I am truly sorry you lost, because that sucks, especially given the fact that you were unable to play those 2 winners. But as a business owner, you owe it to your customers to get the information to them, otherwise you must state that before they buy your product. A learning lesson for sure. Good luck to you as you recover those losses.
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Posted:
#640
Also,
how do the odds of busting increase as you play longer? I'm confused because of point 2, which says that future and past series/games are independent. I understand the law of large numbers but i don't think that's the way it works. Help me understand.
Or are you simply trying to say that at some point in the future, you will, eventually, lose (point 6).
how do the odds of busting increase as you play longer? I'm confused because of point 2, which says that future and past series/games are independent. I understand the law of large numbers but i don't think that's the way it works. Help me understand.
Or are you simply trying to say that at some point in the future, you will, eventually, lose (point 6).
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Posted:
#641
Quote Originally Posted by trojanman55:
Also,
how do the odds of busting increase as you play longer? I'm confused because of point 2, which says that future and past series/games are independent. I understand the law of large numbers but i don't think that's the way it works. Help me understand.
Or are you simply trying to say that at some point in the future, you will, eventually, lose (point 6).
Also,
how do the odds of busting increase as you play longer? I'm confused because of point 2, which says that future and past series/games are independent. I understand the law of large numbers but i don't think that's the way it works. Help me understand.
Or are you simply trying to say that at some point in the future, you will, eventually, lose (point 6).
You have to know the rate you can pick winners. It is that simple. He said outright that he was taking a lot of dogs. At the time he left civilaztion, he had 1 winner out of 11(I think). A 6 game losing streak and 5 losses followed by 1 win. This win rate might be the extreme of his "handicapping" skill, but as you can see, shit happens when you can't even hit 50%. The correct odds of going bust are determined by your "win" rate and his win rate over the course of this experiment has been well below 50%. I can't post the calculations for you, but even if you can tell me you can pick 60% winners, you will still eventually hit 7 losses in a row given you play enough games/series.
I don't care if Eagel wins or loses, but as was discretly pointed out in another thread, this is not a system or stratgey and the mods should move it to the tout section. He is using his handicapping skills with a money management system. The end result will be just what happened no matter how good he can cap games.
Just my 2 cents...and not intended to bash Eagle.
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Posted:
#642
The reason I said that your previous bets don't affect your future bets
was to build the argument that you are risking way too much on your
end-level bets (5th, 6th, 7th, etc) to win very little.
This does not eliminate or negate the fact that the chances of you busting... which I layout below. Note that these are approximate numbers and subject to verification by someone who knows their shit on probability theory.
The odds of losing any given single bet is q = 20/39 = 51.28%. If you play a total of 6 bets, the odds of losing 6 times are q6 = 1.81%. However if you make more and more bets, the odds of losing 6 times in a row begin to increase rapidly.
In 73 bets, there is about a 50% chance that you will at some point have lost at least 6 bets in a row. (The chance of still being solvent after the first six bets is around 0.95 but the chance of becoming bankrupt at each subsequent spin is (1-0.5128)x0.0181 = 0.0088, where the first term is the chance that you won the (n-6)th bet --- if you had lost the (n-6)th bet, you would have become bankrupt on the (n-1)th bet. Thus over 73 spins the probability of remaining solvent is 0.978744 x (1-0.0088)^67 = 0.54, and therefore the chance of becoming bankrupt is 1-0.54 = 46%.)
Similarly, in 150 spins, there is a 75% chance that you will lose at least 6 bets in a row at some point.
And in 250 spins, there is a 90% chance that you will lose at least 6 betss in a row at some point.
This is simple and common information... if you think you're minimizing risk in anyway using a linear betting system such as the martingale, you need to quit gambling and go educate yourself.
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Posted:
#643
K I know I used 6 game series but the calculations are still there... and the numbers for a 7 game series wouldn't be far off.
Also, I used a faulty equation to arrive at q but the number is still the same... With average juiced lines at around -105, the implied probability of losing is 51.22% (very similar to the 51.28% that I used).
Seriously though, people using martingale and labby lines need to make sure they fully understand what it is they're doing or they will lose A LOT of dough.
Also, I used a faulty equation to arrive at q but the number is still the same... With average juiced lines at around -105, the implied probability of losing is 51.22% (very similar to the 51.28% that I used).
Seriously though, people using martingale and labby lines need to make sure they fully understand what it is they're doing or they will lose A LOT of dough.
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Posted:
#646
I started the recovery process tonight. I will play each series against itself for a period of time to recover some of what has been lost. I will do it this way to ensure that every loss is a win and after the first play we will always be at at least at Level 2. It began with the Marlins and Orioles basically offseting each other. Im sure there are percentages against this, but I am going to try it anyway.
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Posted:
#649
dj_destroyer, I trust what you say is true but I'm having trouble following it. Not sure where you get q=20/39. It must be beyond my scope. I just finished an intro statistics class, I'm better at calculus. No need to explain though.
What Scotth69 says makes more sense to me. You need to know the winning percentage. From there, I believe, you can use a simple formula, P(x) = nCx(p^x)(q^(n-x)). Where n= number of trials, p= probability of success, q= probability of failure, and x= number of successes in n trials.
For example, if eagle is to have 0 wins in 7 attempts and is picking games at, say, 30% then P(x) = 7C0(.3^0)(.7^7) ~ 8% chance that he will bust if capping at 30%. Is this wrong?
What Scotth69 says makes more sense to me. You need to know the winning percentage. From there, I believe, you can use a simple formula, P(x) = nCx(p^x)(q^(n-x)). Where n= number of trials, p= probability of success, q= probability of failure, and x= number of successes in n trials.
For example, if eagle is to have 0 wins in 7 attempts and is picking games at, say, 30% then P(x) = 7C0(.3^0)(.7^7) ~ 8% chance that he will bust if capping at 30%. Is this wrong?
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Posted:
#650
it is a mathematical certainty that when winning games at a 45% rate that you will eventually lose 7 in a row. that i know for sure.
this whole thread really isnt a strategy or a system or a chase anything like that whatsoever, all it is is picking games (and in this case winning about 4 or 5 out of every 10) and hoping not to string together 7 losses before getting a win. its mathematicaly and statistically guaranteed to fail at some point.
thats why i disagree with the idea of going tout and selling this as a winning system when the picks themsleves are only winning at a 45% rate. youre telling people, pay me 11 bucks for my picks because i wont lose 7 in a row, and that statement is 100% false. not losing 7 in a row up to that point while picking winners 45% just means that you hadnt lost 7 in a row despite your handicapping..not because of it.
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