6 Game Martingale All Or Nothing Copycat Chase

Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

ACE over on therx has been doing this for over a year and is roughly 320-0.  He says that he has never lost 7 in a row.  I thought I would try it starting with a $1000 bankroll and go 6 in a row. My unit to win is $10.  Bets will progress as such below but wont be exact in order to account for juice:

10
20
40
80
160
320

Plays will often come multiple times per day.  I will use Matchbook lines. If this is the wrong forum for this please let me know and I will move it.

1st play is SDSU +4 $10.20 to win $10

 

 

 

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

 
You have conned noobs into thinking they can make money following a system developed in the 18th century (that also went extinct in the 18th century); therefore you are a crook, here is why:

1. No matter how many games you play (this could be a 20 game marty), you will always have a negative expected value. Negative expected values will always lose in the long run. Martingale simply compounds this problem.
2. All of the games are independent of each other and thus have no correlation. It doesn't matter whether you won or lost your last game, the odds and percentages are brand new every time. This means you have no better chance to win your last bet than your first bet, so why wager more on your last?
3. The later you get into the martingale progression, the worst the bet becomes in terms of monetary considerations. By the end of it, you are wagering A LOT to win very little.
4. The odds of busting (7 losses in a row) is about 40%... so going into a new series, the player knows it is very likely they will bust. In fact, the odds of the player busting only INCREASES as you bet more and play longer. By the time you reach 250 bets, the chances that you will have lost 7 in a row is up around 90%.
5. A smart bookie will always allow martingale players to play (and may even comp them nicely if it's in Vegas) because martingale players POSE NO THREAT TO BOOKIES, it's a fatalistic system that bankrupts people in an instant.
6. YOU WILL LOSE.

**If anyone tries to counter-argue what I have said, please do your research and calculations first, you will quickly realize how stupid it is to play a system that is guaranteed to lose you money.**

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:


If anyone is such a good capper that they can trust their capping to create positive expected value (+EV) and therefore create edges, then they don't need a shitty martingale system. What I mean by this is that if you can consistently find weaknesses in the lines to the point where you're setting lines better than the books... then you can trust your capping to alter the odds in your favour. If a play is -105 but you know it should be -115, then you're getting a +EV edge and you are always going to WIN in the long run. I don't know too many people who can do this, and those that can are professional gamblers. But seriously, what I just said is the ONLY way to gamble. Any other way and you're going to lose in the long run, it's simple math.

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:



If anyone is such a good capper that they can trust their capping to create positive expected value (+EV) and therefore create edges, then they don't need a shitty martingale system. What I mean by this is that if you can consistently find weaknesses in the lines to the point where you're setting lines better than the books... then you can trust your capping to alter the odds in your favour. If a play is -105 but you know it should be -115, then you're getting a +EV edge and you are always going to WIN in the long run. I don't know too many people who can do this, and those that can are professional gamblers. But seriously, what I just said is the ONLY way to gamble. Any other way and you're going to lose in the long run, it's simple math.