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Last year I ran this system for the first time. It was inspired by Cisco's 5 Run System. My system is basically the opposite of his. His waited until teams WON a game by 5 runs or more, then betting a 4 game chase that they will LOSE one game after skipping 2 games.
My system is:
5 Run Win Chase Qualifiers: Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase. Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts skips) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will WIN one game. Play the moneyline if a favorite and +1.5 runline if the dog. Once the chase begins, a 5 run LOSS during the chase does not restart the chase (by skipping the next two games), but DOES start a brand new chase by skipping the next two games for the NEW chase.
Last year I bet a four game chase on these teams. The record was 107-1. I won 103 units because of the betting structure I used. I determine a unit (say $10). Because over 80% of the games win (from my backtesting) on either the A or B bet, I bet the following way:
A game - BET 2 units
B game - BET 5 units
C game - BET 8 units
D game - BET 10 units
Ex: Atlanta is the play and is a -130 favorite. Rather than bet $13 to win my unit of $10, I will bet $20 to win $15.38. If I win, I will win 1.538 units, not just 1. If I lose, I will then place a bet of $50 on Atlanta to win the next game. They are favored again, this time at -140. A $50 bet wins $35.71. If I win that one, then I net $15.71...$35.71 -$20 or 1.571 units, not just 1 unit. If I lose that bet then I bet $80 for the C bet. They are favored at -130 again. This time I WIN the bet, which is $61.54. Therefore, I lose $8.46 on the chase or -0.846 units (less than 1 unit) on the chase. If it goes to a D bet, you can decide if you want to risk 10 more units or call it a loss. A win at -130 on the D bet will still lose $73.08 or -7.308 units. I admit that I got really lucky last year with the way my betting worked out (plus saving 10 units by skipping Cleveland) and realize that if I have a lot of C and D games that it won't be as successful. We will just have to see.
If I lose a chase (I lost one chase last year) then I know that I can only lose 25 units max no matter what. However, since most of my wins are on the A or B bets, then I usually win MORE than 1 unit when I win a chase on either A or B. If the chase wins on a C game or D game, then I will lose some money, despite winning the chase. However, that is offset by the 1+ units I average on the other chases. If I just do not like the D bet, I give myself the leeway to skip the game and take a 15 unit loss. I actually did that when Cleveland was my only loss last year because they were on a really bad streak at the time. (I admit that I would have been sick if they would have won)
Anyways, my system doesn't start until the third Monday of the season (April 14). I have a lot going on, but will do my best to post the plays.
If anyone chooses to play it, good luck to us!!
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