Posted:
#26
And think, this whole SEA mess could have been avoided if it wasn't for that walk off grand slam in Game 1.
5 Run WIN Chase
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:
And think, this whole SEA mess could have been avoided if it wasn't for that walk off grand slam in Game 1.
And think, this whole SEA mess could have been avoided if it wasn't for that walk off grand slam in Game 1.
No chit....
Just for the fact that it makes me realize that just two weeks into the season is too short to really differentiate the best from the worst ALMOST makes it worth it. It doesn't take many games to go from .533 to .420 at the beginning of the season.
My book (5dimes) had SEA as the dog (+1.5 -220) this morning, so technically the chase won. I though the juice was just too high to take it since I didn't have much confidence in SEA to begin with. I ended up taking SEA at +1 (-153) and pushed, so that was a wash. I am going to count this chase as a win* (with an asterisk), although I will count my money loss in my total.
Posted:
#29
4/20
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
KC
TEX
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NYY Skip 4/20, 4/22 Start 4/23
KC Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
TEX Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
Teams Currently in a Chase:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 unit PENDING
Completed Chases:
TOR 4/19 +1.5 (-210) A Bet: 2.1 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
*SEA 4/18 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit LOST
4/19 P (-140) B Bet: 5 units to win 4.35 units LOST
4/20 +1.5 (-210) C Bet: 8 units to win 3.81 units WON (-3.29 units)
WAS 4/20 P (-136) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.47 units WON (+1.47 units)
MIL 4/20 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
Today's Plays:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 unit
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 4-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 5-1
Current Units YTD: -0.18
Current Open Chases: 1
* I actually bet SEA on the +1 runline because I didn't like laying -210 on the +1.5 runline and pushed that bet. So I actually lost 7 units on that chase myself. The results above are playing the system as stated in the beginning....with the following exception: If a team qualifies for the chase, but drops below .500 winning pct after their skipped games will be a no play. With this change, SEA would not have been a play, nor are they a play after losing to MIA 7-0 on Saturday.
Posted:
#30
The date should be 4/21.
4/21
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
KC
TEX
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NYY Skip 4/20, 4/22 Start 4/23
KC Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
TEX Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
Teams Currently in a Chase:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 unit PENDING
Completed Chases:
TOR 4/19 +1.5 (-210) A Bet: 2.1 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
*SEA 4/18 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit LOST
4/19 P (-140) B Bet: 5 units to win 4.35 units LOST
4/20 +1.5 (-210) C Bet: 8 units to win 3.81 units WON (-3.29 units)
WAS 4/20 P (-136) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.47 units WON (+1.47 units)
MIL 4/20 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
Today's Plays:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 unit
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 4-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 5-1
Current Units YTD: -0.18
Current Open Chases: 1
Posted:
#31
I moved Today's Plays to the top to make it easier to read....and pad my post count. 
4/21
Today's Plays:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 unit
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
KC
TEX
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NYY Skip 4/20, 4/22 Start 4/23
KC Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
TEX Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
Teams Currently in a Chase:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 unit PENDING
Completed Chases:
TOR 4/19 +1.5 (-210) A Bet: 2.1 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
*SEA 4/18 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit LOST
4/19 P (-140) B Bet: 5 units to win 4.35 units LOST
4/20 +1.5 (-210) C Bet: 8 units to win 3.81 units WON (-3.29 units)
WAS 4/20 P (-136) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.47 units WON (+1.47 units)
MIL 4/20 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 4-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 5-1
Current Units YTD: -0.18
Current Open Chases: 1
Posted:
#32
I like the way your money management progression on your plays. Have you thought about playing the Hat's new system the same way. He hit's A's and B's about 85%. I figure if the average line is -150, you would win over 300 units. I think I will try this because with your progressive betting I can afford a higher unit to win then I can trying to play a six game chase.
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by akell09:
I like the way your money management progression on your plays. Have you thought about playing the Hat's new system the same way. He hit's A's and B's about 85%. I figure if the average line is -150, you would win over 300 units. I think I will try this because with your progressive betting I can afford a higher unit to win then I can trying to play a six game chase.
I like the way your money management progression on your plays. Have you thought about playing the Hat's new system the same way. He hit's A's and B's about 85%. I figure if the average line is -150, you would win over 300 units. I think I will try this because with your progressive betting I can afford a higher unit to win then I can trying to play a six game chase.
That is exactly how I am going to bet it....although a smaller unit since I do not know the parameters of the system. His record here is good enough to give it shot though.
Posted:
#34
4/22
Today's Plays:
DET 4/22 P (-140) B Bet: 5 units to win 3.57 units PENDING
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
LAD
SF
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NYY Skip 4/20, 4/22 Start 4/23
KC Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
TEX Skip 4/21, 4/22 Start 4/23
LAD Skip 4/22, 4/23 Start 4/24
SF Skip 4/22, 4/23 Start 4/25
Teams Currently in a Chase:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 units LOST (-2 units)
4/22 P (-140) B Bet: 5 units to win 3.57 units PENDING
Completed Chases:
TOR 4/19 +1.5 (-210) A Bet: 2.1 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
*SEA 4/18 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit LOST
4/19 P (-140) B Bet: 5 units to win 4.35 units LOST
4/20 +1.5 (-210) C Bet: 8 units to win 3.81 units WON (-3.29 units)
WAS 4/20 P (-136) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.47 units WON (+1.47 units)
MIL 4/20 +1.5 (-200) A Bet: 2 units to win 1 unit WON (+1 unit)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 4-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 5-1
Current Units YTD: -0.18
Current Open Chases: 1
Posted:
#35
Love the format man. The only thing I would say is that it's a bit redundant to list the completed chases in every update; those can be seen by just browsing through the thread. Plus it's gonna make your posts really long in the upcoming months.
Other than that it's very helpful, hope you'll continue throughout the year.
Other than that it's very helpful, hope you'll continue throughout the year.
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by TheBeefMan:
Love the format man. The only thing I would say is that it's a bit redundant to list the completed chases in every update; those can be seen by just browsing through the thread. Plus it's gonna make your posts really long in the upcoming months.
Other than that it's very helpful, hope you'll continue throughout the year.
Love the format man. The only thing I would say is that it's a bit redundant to list the completed chases in every update; those can be seen by just browsing through the thread. Plus it's gonna make your posts really long in the upcoming months.
Other than that it's very helpful, hope you'll continue throughout the year.
I agree. I was already thinking about that when I posted this morning.
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:
SEA lost last night as a HUGE fav.
SEA lost last night as a HUGE fav.
DET coming up tonight also as a HUGE fav.
Yea....my DET was cancelled by the pitching change, but I was able to get in a new bet after seeing your post. Thanks, I ended up taking DET on the -1 runline at -185 since the juice was so high. I think I'm going to do that in the future with -200 or more favorites....play the -1 RL instead of the ML.
Posted:
#39
4/23
Today's Plays:
NYY 4/23 +1.5 (-190) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.05 units
KC 4/23 +1.5 (-175) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.14 units
TEX 4/23 +1.5 (-160) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.25 units
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
NONE
Current Teams Skipping Games:
LAD Skip 4/22, 4/23 Start 4/24
SF Skip 4/22, 4/23 Start 4/25
Teams Currently in a Chase:
NYY 4/23 +1.5 (-190) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.05 units
KC 4/23 +1.5 (-175) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.14 units
TEX 4/23 +1.5 (-160) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.25 units
Teams That Won a Chase Yesterday:
DET 4/21 P (-180) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.11 units LOST
4/22 P (-240) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.03 units WON (0.03 units)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 5-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 7-2
Current Units YTD: -0.15
Current Open Chases: 3
Posted:
#40
4/24
Today's Plays:
NYY 4/24 +1.5 (-190) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.63 units
KC 4/24 +1.5 (-175) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.86 units
LAD 4/24 P (-172) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.16 units
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
NONE
Current Teams Skipping Games:
SF Skip 4/22, 4/23 Start 4/25
Teams Currently in a Chase:
NYY 4/23 +1.5 (-190) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.05 units
4/24 +1.5 (-190) B Bet: 5 units to win 1.05 units
KC 4/23 +1.5 (-175) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.14 units LOST (-2 units)
4/24 +1.5 (-175) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.86 units LOST (-2 units)
LAD 4/24 P (-172) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.16 units
Teams That Won a Chase Yesterday:
TEX 4/23 +1.5 (-160) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.25 units WON (+1.25 units)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 6-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 8-2
Current Units YTD: +1.10
Current Open Chases: 3
Posted:
#41
Corrected above post.
4/24
Today's Plays:
NYY 4/24 +1.5 (-190) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.63 units
KC 4/24 +1.5 (-175) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.86 units
LAD 4/24 P (-172) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.16 units
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
NONE
Current Teams Skipping Games:
SF Skip 4/22, 4/23 Start 4/25
Teams Currently in a Chase:
NYY 4/23 +1.5 (-190) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.05 units LOST (-2 units)
4/24 +1.5 (-190) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.63 units
KC 4/23 +1.5 (-175) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.14 units LOST (-2 units)
4/24 +1.5 (-175) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.86 units
LAD 4/24 P (-172) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.16 units
Teams That Won a Chase Yesterday:
TEX 4/23 +1.5 (-160) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.25 units WON (+1.25 units)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 6-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 8-2
Current Units YTD: +1.10
Current Open Chases: 3
Posted:
#42
4/25
Today's Plays:
KC 4/25 +1.5 (-210) C Bet: 8 units to win 3.81 units
LAD 4/25 P (-147) B Bet: 5 units to win 3.40 units
SF 4/25 P (-149) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.34 units
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
NONE
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NONE
Teams Currently in a Chase:
KC 4/23 +1.5 (-175) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.14 units LOST (-2 units)
4/24 +1.5 (-175) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.86 units LOST (-5 units)
4/25 +1.5 (-210) C Bet: 8 units to win 3.81 units PENDING
LAD 4/24 P (-172) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.16 units LOST (-2 units)
4/25 P (-147) B Bet: 5 units to win 3.40 units PENDING
SF 4/25 P (-149) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.34 units PENDING
Teams That Won a Chase Yesterday:
NYY 4/23 +1.5 (-190) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.05 units LOST
4/24 +1.5 (-190) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.63 units WON (+.063 units)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 7-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 9-3
Current Units YTD: +1.73
Current Open Chases: 3
Posted:
#45
4/26
Today's Plays:
LAD 4/26 P (-120) C Bet: 8 units to win 6.67 units
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
NYY
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NYY Skip 4/26, 4/27 Start 4/29
Teams Currently in a Chase:
LAD 4/24 P (-172) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.16 units LOST (-2 units)
4/25 P (-147) B Bet: 5 units to win 3.40 units LOST (-5 units)
4/26 P (-120) C Bet: 8 units to win 6.67 units PENDING
Teams That Won a Chase Yesterday:
KC 4/23 +1.5 (-175) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.14 units LOST
4/24 +1.5 (-175) B Bet: 5 units to win 2.86 units LOST
4/25 +1.5 (-210) C Bet: 8 units to win 3.81 units WON (-3.29 units)
SF 4/25 P (-149) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.34 units WON (+1.34 units)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 9-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 11-5
Current Units YTD: -0.22
Current Open Chases: 1
Posted:
#46
This is weird. So if one were to bet KC in this chase thing, they'd lose 7 units on Weds and Thurs, then risk 8 units to win 3.81 units on Friday, and win so they only lost 3.19 units. Does NOT sound very sound in strategy. That said, good luck on the rest of the season. I'll root for LAD tomorrow for you.
Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by casheasy:
This is weird. So if one were to bet KC in this chase thing, they'd lose 7 units on Weds and Thurs, then risk 8 units to win 3.81 units on Friday, and win so they only lost 3.19 units. Does NOT sound very sound in strategy. That said, good luck on the rest of the season. I'll root for LAD tomorrow for you.
This is weird. So if one were to bet KC in this chase thing, they'd lose 7 units on Weds and Thurs, then risk 8 units to win 3.81 units on Friday, and win so they only lost 3.19 units. Does NOT sound very sound in strategy. That said, good luck on the rest of the season. I'll root for LAD tomorrow for you.
Last year and in my backtesting, over 80% of the chases won on the A or B bet. Betting this way averaged around 1.2 units per win if they won on the A or B bet. If it goes to a C and/or D bet, then I am basically just recouping SOME of my losses from the A and B bet. Last year, I had more than enough A and B wins to easily overcome the C and D wins (slight $ losses) and the one chase loss.
It may not work as well this year. There have been some really high run line odds and we have already had a couple go to at least the C bet. Still trying to decide if how I like betting it. At least my way, I know that I can only lose 25 units per chase loss.
Posted:
#49
4/27
Today's Plays:
NONE
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
NONE
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NYY Skip 4/26, 4/27 Start 4/29
Teams Currently in a Chase:
NONE
Teams That Won a Chase Yesterday:
LAD 4/24 P (-172) A Bet: 2 units to win 1.16 units LOST
4/25 P (-147) B Bet: 5 units to win 3.40 units LOST
4/26 P (-120) C Bet: 8 units to win 6.67 units WON (-0.33 units)
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 10-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 12-7
Current Units YTD: -0.55
Current Open Chases: 0
Posted:
#50
4/28
Today's Plays:
NONE
Teams that Qualified Yesterday:
NONE
Current Teams Skipping Games:
NYY Skip 4/26, 4/27 Start 4/29
Teams Currently in a Chase:
NONE
Teams That Won a Chase Yesterday:
NONE
RECORDS FOR COMPLETED CHASES:
Current Chase Record YTD: 10-0
Current Per Game Record YTD: 12-7
Current Units YTD: -0.55
Current Open Chases: 0
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