2014 RPI SYSTEM

If bettor2win doesn't come back to run his system, then this will be the official thread. First possible series is on Thursday May 1.

Canis Major has created the spreadsheet for this year that we will be posted soon. For those that download the spreadsheet, remember to update the standings and the RPI every day. There are two buttons for this at the top of the sheet.

Rules reminder:

• Teams we play must be over .500 win %
• Teams we play must have 4 or more wins than their opponent
• Teams we play must have 5 or more wins in last 10
• Home team must have an RPI of 42 or more than opponent
• Visiting team must have an RPI of 50 or more than opponent
• Post All-Star game, the above numbers change to 35 and 42
• In a 4 game series, if A game is a winner, start a new 3 game chase on the remaining 3 games
• In a 4 game series, if the first 3 games lose, do not chase a 4th game

There are many different ways that people bet so I am not going to track units or dollars. The original bet suggestion has been added to the spreadsheet, which is a modified Martingale. Use it if you want to. Basically you would bet to win X amount on the A game. If A game loses, you would wager to win what was lost on A game plus X (X being whatever your profit goal is). If B lost, the C bet would be to win the same as what was bet on the A game. This would mean a loss on the series even if C wins, but would protect the bankroll if C loses. Since 91% of the series historically have won on the A and B games, this would more than make up for the smaller series losses.

 

Link to the new spreadsheet.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ttza8rnwfu282i9/MLB%20RPI%20System%20Chase%202014.xlsm

 

 

After discussing with Canis Major, we felt it was appropriate to add the following from Canis:

First, a big "thank you" is due to DegenGamble for creating the original MLBRPI spreadsheet based on Bettor2win's RPI Chase system. It served as the inspiration when I originally created my version in 2012. Now updated for the 2014 season, I have attempted to stay true to the original ideas and rules of Bettor2win's system.

This spreadsheet was created in Excel 2010. It has macros and they are safe. Any sheets that are protected can be unlocked with the password, 'rpi'. I recommend leaving the protection turned on to keep things running smooth. Be sure to set your time zone on the Schedule sheet and if you want full historical functionality, update the Standings and RPI data every day before the start of games.

I will provide support and fix any bugs, if found, when time permits.

* No guarantees of any kind as to accuracy or functionality. This will not make you a winning bettor. Losses will occur. Use at your own risk

Thanks to all! This is great work!

good luck Dan. 

Dan, would you by any chance have the A, B, & C won-loss record from past seasons? I understand that 91% of A & B bets win.

The 91% figure came from B2W's sheet for the start of the 2012 season. The 2012 and 20143 season did not hit at that rate. Below is what I have for the last 3 seasons, beyond that I have no idea.

2013 Record 104-7

• A: 66-45
• B: 27-18
• C: 11-7

2012 Record 106-2

• A: 60-48
• B: 37-11
• C: 9-2

2011 Record 89-1

• A: 58-32
• B: 23-9
• C: 8-1

I did not see the Sagarin Rankings.. Is it left out of this version?

Sagarin has nothing to do with the RPI system.

Just a FYI - If we started playing this system on Thursday we would have gone 5-0 with 4 A game and 1 B game winners. Oakloand would have given us a double dip since they had a 4 game series and won games 1 and 2.

Here's to a great year. Thinking of only playing home teams. 

Do you have an estimate of how many units, on average, a loss is? Much appreciated, thanks for the work!!!

All depnds on the ods. I try to prepare for all 3 games being at -200 which I believe would be 26 units on a strict Martingale chase. This is why the original rules suggested that any C game be reduced to the same as the first bet. Protect bankroll.

I actually went back and tested a different betting method against this system for the last 3 years. I bet to win x on the A game, bet to win 2x on B game and bet to win 4x on C games. I didn't consider what was lost on A games for a B bet or what was lost on A and B for a C bet. For years like last year where we had several losses I came out much much better doing it this way. For years in which the system did real well, there was a lower profit than chasing using a strict Martingale. I also tested flat betting those same x, 2x, 4x amounts but that didn't work well.

Is it all ML bets or favs on the ML and dogs on the RL?

All ML, even dogs. We are betting on stronger teams so if we can get them as dogs, even better.

Excellent! Danrules24 

I started on Apr 17th...with the post All Star game numbers (forgot to change them) and I have 10 A game winners, 4 B.  Yesterday, both Mil and Col won...Cin being postponed to today, and Atlanta also today.

I've played a couple of unofficial series as well but will wait a few days to kick this off officially per the May 1 rules. 

Buckeye, Atl is a play today, but Cin is NOT.

Going forward, let's leave this thread to official plays to avoid any confusion.

Reap...I know. One: due to the date and the other due to the fact that I had the post all star game numbers.

We start it off on Thursday with Milwaukee being a play at Cincy.

Good luck all!

Thanks Dan for hosting the thread and tracking!

Canis, the spreadsheet is not updating the standings correctly. Looks to be shifted one line as Milwaukee is showing the record for Minny while Minny is showing the Header line.

Dan,

I noticed that myself this morning and posted a new version.  The issue was cause by the web site adding a line to the page we get the standings from.  I did not announce it here because I am not sure if the web page change is permanent or not and was going to see how it does tomorrow morning.

The current version is 2014.1.5 (updated though this morning) and is available using the link in the original post.