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2013-2014 First Game In Rotation 324-0 Chase Results

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Posted: #1

Hey Guys I have been tracking the first game in the rotation all year for all sports and I have the documented stats for all sports.  I will continue to update this daily for all sports all year long.  The only sport I have calculated yet is NCAAF but I will add this to the sheet soon.  The records by sport are listed below:

NFL Straight Record 28-23

NFL Chase Record 28--0

NBA Straight Record 85-68

NBA Chase Record 85-0

NCAAB Straight Record 62-55

NCAAB Chase Record 62-0

NHL Straight Record 131-45

NHL Chase Record 131-0

MLB Straight Record 11-4

MLB Chase Record 11-0

MLB American League Straight Record 7-8

MLB American League Chase Record 7-0

NHL Dog Record 76-93

NHL Dog Chase 76-2

MLB Dog Record 9-7

MLB Dog Chase 9-0

MLB American League Dog 5-9

MLB American League Dog Chase 5-0

 

Combined Straight Record (Not Including Dogs) is 324-203  

Combined Chase Record (Not Including Dogs) 324-0

Combined Dog Straight Record 90-109

Combined Dog Chase Record 90-2

 

I have created two simple rules which prove to be very helpful on losing streaks and in NCAAB.  You can view all the stats on this google document.  You will find it very useful.  If you have any questions feel free to ask.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvnRD80i9YfQdG9yRzQ4a2d0NUhiaG5PRTRpNmtzcVE&usp=sharing

 
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Posted: #2
Thanks for this
 
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Posted: #3
I find this mind boggling. The straight up winners alone is crazy for blindly picking the first game of the rotation. Are you planning to backtest previous years to see if this holds true?

This is not my preferred style of wagering however by that I mean blindly picking games. Thanks for sharing as I found the results very interesting
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

I find this mind boggling. The straight up winners alone is crazy for blindly picking the first game of the rotation. Are you planning to backtest previous years to see if this holds true?

This is not my preferred style of wagering however by that I mean blindly picking games. Thanks for sharing as I found the results very interesting

It's nothing new than what I've posted in the NHL and NCAAB and MLB threads all season except some of his numbers are off.
 
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Posted: #5
The document is a thing of beauty.   Great job.   

It's interesting that you would have made more money straight betting in baseball, so far, then chasing.   I'm sure that will change over time. 
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by KidCovers:

Hey Guys I have been tracking the first game in the rotation all year for all sports and I have the documented stats for all sports.  I will continue to update this daily for all sports all year long.  The only sport I have calculated yet is NCAAF but I will add this to the sheet soon.  The records by sport are listed below:

NFL Straight Record 28-23

NFL Chase Record 28--0

NBA Straight Record 85-68

NBA Chase Record 85-0

NCAAB Straight Record 62-55

NCAAB Chase Record 62-0

NHL Straight Record 131-45

NHL Chase Record 131-0

MLB Straight Record 11-4

MLB Chase Record 11-0

MLB American League Straight Record 7-8

MLB American League Chase Record 7-0

NHL Dog Record 76-93

NHL Dog Chase 76-2

MLB Dog Record 9-7

MLB Dog Chase 9-0

MLB American League Dog 5-9

MLB American League Dog Chase 5-0

 

Combined Straight Record (Not Including Dogs) is 324-203  

Combined Chase Record (Not Including Dogs) 324-0

Combined Dog Straight Record 90-109

Combined Dog Chase Record 90-2

 

I have created two simple rules which prove to be very helpful on losing streaks and in NCAAB.  You can view all the stats on this google document.  You will find it very useful.  If you have any questions feel free to ask.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvnRD80i9YfQdG9yRzQ4a2d0NUhiaG5PRTRpNmtzcVE&usp=sharing

Thank you very much for generously sharing this here with everyone.  May I ask what are your 2 simple rules that you mentioned? 

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:


It's nothing new than what I've posted in the NHL and NCAAB and MLB threads all season except some of his numbers are off.

Jeff Hat mentioned the numbers are off.  That is not true.  The only reason the numbers may seem off is because of the two rules I use.  This means that I don't simply take every game.  There are two situations that I don't take.  One being after you lose three in a row for all sports.. The other is a situation is in NCAAB which has to do with the line posted.  The thing that is different is this is a posted document that you can actual see.  While I notice you do good work Hat, some people like to see past results and like to follow results via a spreadsheet.  There are many different angles that can be used when you see the data in front of you.  I think most of you would agree.  I will continue to post to this sheet each day throughout the year.

Good luck everyone.

Today was The Reds in MLB +1.5 and Detroit in the NHL +1.5.  The American Leauge pick was the Angels +1.5  The dogs are also tracked as you can see by the spreadsheet.
 
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Posted: #8
I noticed that the MLB profits were not updated yesterday which is why the straight profit was higher than the chase.  Sorry for that.  Now they are updated and the results are correct.

Thanks and good luck.
 
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Posted: #9
I think it's good to see different view points of a similar situation. You follow it one way, as does Jeff, as do I.

After looking at the previous numbers, I personally don't take the run line in the MLB. Just straight up dogs as it's, well, cheaper.

Taking -200+ favorites and having a 3 game losing streak under these circumstances just doesn't do it for me when the dog numbers hit the way they do.

But continued success to all of us as we look at this and other situations to beat the books...


bD
 
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Posted: #10
Good point.  I really put this together to track this odd success of the first rotation game in each sport.  Now that's its all setup we are able to track the long haul success.

BD I have been reading your post for quite some time and always find them interesting.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by KidCovers:


Jeff Hat mentioned the numbers are off.  That is not true.  The only reason the numbers may seem off is because of the two rules I use.  This means that I don't simply take every game.  There are two situations that I don't take.  One being after you lose three in a row for all sports.. The other is a situation is in NCAAB which has to do with the line posted.  The thing that is different is this is a posted document that you can actual see.  While I notice you do good work Hat, some people like to see past results and like to follow results via a spreadsheet.  There are many different angles that can be used when you see the data in front of you.  I think most of you would agree.  I will continue to post to this sheet each day throughout the year.

Good luck everyone.

Today was The Reds in MLB +1.5 and Detroit in the NHL +1.5.  The American Leauge pick was the Angels +1.5  The dogs are also tracked as you can see by the spreadsheet.

All the Dogs won straight up as well with Detroit Redwings +175 and the Angels +104 and the reds +102.

All the picks are posted for tomorrow.  Good Luck Everyone.
 
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Posted: #12
great spreadsheet - that was a lot of work! thanks for sharing. would be really interesting to see if this held up in previous years
 
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Posted: #13
Hey Fellas I have added the individual TEAM records for NHL and MLB +1.5 Selections YTD.  Another interesting stat for you to view.  I will keep these updated as well.  They are posted within the spreadsheet for all to view.

Thanks and good luck.
 
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Posted: #14
If you have chance to do NBA 1st quarter "under" could to be great... iam playing this for last month to date, and i got very good results...

congratulations on your good job 
 
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Posted: #15
Kid
Once again great work with the sheet, it keeps getting better as you add to it.  Excellent data and well laid out, awesome job!  Thanks for sharing your efforts with us.

 
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Posted: #16
Hey guys thanks for the kind words.  I am almost finished with 2012-2013 NHL season and I plan on back testing every sport at least one year. I can tell you it looks like the chase record will be undefeated again in the NHL so that's good news.  I will post the sports as I finish them.  I also plan on posting the picks each day on here so we are all on the same page each day.  I hope you guys enjoy the MLB and NHL team records.  It's very interesting. I figured only the players on here could appreciate the detailed reports.

Good luck today.  I'll post todays action soon.
 
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Posted: #17
Because of your rules is that why there are no NBA gms between 11-12 and 11-17 as they all lost which would greatly skew your results.  Also 11-7 lost agst the opener and won agst the close.  I think that was the only one that varied between open and close.  If you quit playing after 3 losses in a row why the 6 gms chase.  It seems inevitable that all would cover then.
 
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Posted: #18

Hello Covers here are today’s Plays.  All Plays are in Game 1 of the chase.

1:05 PM ET MLB +1.5 St Louis -230

1:05 PM ET MLB Dog St Louis -101

1:05 PM ET MLB +1.5 American League Toronto -210

1:05 PM ET MLB American League Dog Toronto +113

3:00 PM ET NHL +1.5 Chicago -310

3:00 PM ET NHL Dog Chicago -110

12:30 PM ET NBA Brooklyn +3.5

 Good Luck today!  

 
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Posted: #19
Hello In The End, I don't quit after three losses.. That's when the rules kick in which determine when I play after I have hit 3 losses in a row.  The reason for the rules is that it saved the chase in every case for every sport.  It's the key to being undefeated in the chase.  I will share these rules with you once we get to that point.

Good luck today.
 
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Posted: #20
And yes that is exactly why there were no games between 11-12 and 11-17.  Once I tell you the rules you can go ahead and back check that to verify the results.  The reason I am waiting to share the rules is because it's what makes my chase system unique from every other chase system out there.  Everyone has their own strategy and the reason I made the spread sheets was so I could study the results and formulate my own chase system.  I can tell you that the simple rule has saved the chase 6 times across all sports and saved me a ton of money.  If it wasn't for that the results wouldn't be nearly as good.  I will keep tracking all season long and see where we end up.  Thanks for the post.
 
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Posted: #21
For those of you who would like to review the spreadsheet here it is again.  Feel free to review.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvnRD80i9YfQdG9yRzQ4a2d0NUhiaG5PRTRpNmtzcVE&usp=sharing
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by KidCovers:

And yes that is exactly why there were no games between 11-12 and 11-17.  Once I tell you the rules you can go ahead and back check that to verify the results.  The reason I am waiting to share the rules is because it's what makes my chase system unique from every other chase system out there.  Everyone has their own strategy and the reason I made the spread sheets was so I could study the results and formulate my own chase system.  I can tell you that the simple rule has saved the chase 6 times across all sports and saved me a ton of money.  If it wasn't for that the results wouldn't be nearly as good.  I will keep tracking all season long and see where we end up.  Thanks for the post.

When you say "save the chase", does that mean that you abandon the chase and take whatever the loss is up to that point?
 
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Posted: #23
Hello flwareagle,

Save the chase means the rule saved us from losing the chase..  The rule saved the chase because we didn't bet on those games which would have lost.  In the NBA for instance the rule saved us from an eight game losing streak.  Instead it was only a four game losing streak and we won the 5th game.  I hope this explains it better.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by KidCovers:

Hello Covers here are today’s Plays.  All Plays are in Game 1 of the chase.

1:05 PM ET MLB +1.5 St Louis -230 

1:05 PM ET MLB Dog St Louis -101 

1:05 PM ET MLB +1.5 American League Toronto -210 

1:05 PM ET MLB American League Dog Toronto +113 

3:00 PM ET NHL +1.5 Chicago -310

3:00 PM ET NHL Dog Chicago -110

12:30 PM ET NBA Brooklyn +3.5 

 Good Luck today!  


Great start to today.

Hey guys just wanted to tell you to make sure you check the spreadsheet each day for plays.  I found another rule that cuts the number of losses by an average of 10% per sport.  This means we won’t necessarily be playing every sport every day if this rule comes into play.  10% is enough for me to follow the rule and will make a huge difference in the bottom line profit.  I’m not going to go back and change the current numbers but moving forward I will be using the rule.

Thanks and good luck.

 
 
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Posted: #25

My book had St Louis +1.5 at -310.

Best Of Luck

Thanks Kid

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