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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    2012 Opening Game Favorite

    «First Previous 111213 ... 131415 Next Last»
    therizz
    glefkb01
    Jattdoit
    robbypark
    Air1
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 49060
    Posts: 367
    «First Previous 111213 ... 131415 Next Last»
     
    therizz
    therizz
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2010
    Posts: 2304
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 5:08 PM ET #251

    Plays for 5/8

    SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                       -3.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
    NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #36 (G2) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190          80/2.67U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-61 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30
    Reply
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    Plays for 5/8

    SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                       -3.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
    NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #36 (G2) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190          80/2.67U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-61 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30
     
    therizz
    therizz
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2010
    Posts: 2304
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 5:10 PM ET #252

    Plays for 5/9

    SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                       -3.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
    NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #36 (G3) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190          95/3.16U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-61 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Plays for 5/9

    SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                       -3.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
    NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #36 (G3) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190          95/3.16U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-61 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30
     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
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    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 2554
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 5:40 PM ET #253

    I am going broke chasing these games to C ....WHERE IS THE CONSISTENCIES of years past.     I think we are starting to plateau but man even the B2W system has been lousy lately.What happen to April when we were winning 1000 a week!! 
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    I am going broke chasing these games to C ....WHERE IS THE CONSISTENCIES of years past.     I think we are starting to plateau but man even the B2W system has been lousy lately.What happen to April when we were winning 1000 a week!! 
     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
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    Posts: 2554
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 5:40 PM ET #254

    Cmon PHILLY!
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    Cmon PHILLY!
     
    Jattdoit
    Jattdoit
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    Posts: 145
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 5:47 PM ET #255

    Rizz you do not force anybody to bet, not your fault its been tough start. You have been providing valuable info for us of those who would never have bet baseball otherwise. I for one have been careful with certain teams. Nobody has any reason to bitch. It's all about control. Thank-you for taking the time to post, hopefully we all can get on track.
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    Rizz you do not force anybody to bet, not your fault its been tough start. You have been providing valuable info for us of those who would never have bet baseball otherwise. I for one have been careful with certain teams. Nobody has any reason to bitch. It's all about control. Thank-you for taking the time to post, hopefully we all can get on track.
     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
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    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 2554
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 6:16 PM ET #256

    Quote Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

    Rizz you do not force anybody to bet, not your fault its been tough start. You have been providing valuable info for us of those who would never have bet baseball otherwise. I for one have been careful with certain teams. Nobody has any reason to bitch. It's all about control. Thank-you for taking the time to post, hopefully we all can get on track.

    If this was aimed at me... I was venting the obvious.    I like this system very much and am up overall as a result...just like everyone dont like giving it back but that the nature of the beast.    TheRizz, B2W have had AWESOME success and I am grateful for them sharing.    

    Once more....go PHILLY!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

    Rizz you do not force anybody to bet, not your fault its been tough start. You have been providing valuable info for us of those who would never have bet baseball otherwise. I for one have been careful with certain teams. Nobody has any reason to bitch. It's all about control. Thank-you for taking the time to post, hopefully we all can get on track.

    If this was aimed at me... I was venting the obvious.    I like this system very much and am up overall as a result...just like everyone dont like giving it back but that the nature of the beast.    TheRizz, B2W have had AWESOME success and I am grateful for them sharing.    

    Once more....go PHILLY!

     
    Jattdoit
    Jattdoit
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    Posts: 145
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 6:29 PM ET #257

    No friend directed at anybody who was upset with, which you didn't seem to be. Goodluck on Philly!
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    No friend directed at anybody who was upset with, which you didn't seem to be. Goodluck on Philly!
     
    Jattdoit
    Jattdoit
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    Posts: 145
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 6:31 PM ET #258

    * upset with Rizz...
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    * upset with Rizz...
     
    robbypark
    robbypark
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    Posts: 2145
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 9:11 PM ET #259

    I think a filter for this system this year should be to never bet on the Phillies.

    I'm only kidding but goddamn, do they ever suck?  That bullpen is atrocious and they have no offense whatsoever.  This team is completely fucked for this year.  The books are just overvaluing them based on their starting pitchers.
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    I think a filter for this system this year should be to never bet on the Phillies.

    I'm only kidding but goddamn, do they ever suck?  That bullpen is atrocious and they have no offense whatsoever.  This team is completely fucked for this year.  The books are just overvaluing them based on their starting pitchers.
     
    Air1
    Air1
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    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 9:26 PM ET #260

    Phillies Manager and Pen suck just as bad. Lee is pitching a very good game. Take him out when you already have the lead and he only has thrown 84 pitches only to leave it to your bullpen which has blown the last 2 games of the series WTF are you thinking!!!!!
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    Phillies Manager and Pen suck just as bad. Lee is pitching a very good game. Take him out when you already have the lead and he only has thrown 84 pitches only to leave it to your bullpen which has blown the last 2 games of the series WTF are you thinking!!!!!
     
    Air1
    Air1
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    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 9:40 PM ET #261

    I didn't check all the series this yr, only the ones that ended up losing.... 2 of them would have been W's if we chased for the first 5 innings only.

    I hear a lot of people say that the lines are mostly based on who the starting pitcher is. SP do not usually last more than 7 innings, and since a lot of BP's blow saves, I think I will do some research to see if the first 5 innings are a better bet.
    Not sure if anyone has tested it before, but if so please let me know.
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    I didn't check all the series this yr, only the ones that ended up losing.... 2 of them would have been W's if we chased for the first 5 innings only.

    I hear a lot of people say that the lines are mostly based on who the starting pitcher is. SP do not usually last more than 7 innings, and since a lot of BP's blow saves, I think I will do some research to see if the first 5 innings are a better bet.
    Not sure if anyone has tested it before, but if so please let me know.
     
    robbypark
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    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 9:48 PM ET #262

    4 losses on the year now.  Still a good record.  On the bright side, I think we'll run off winners for a long while now.  
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    4 losses on the year now.  Still a good record.  On the bright side, I think we'll run off winners for a long while now.  
     
    peter1988
    peter1988
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    Posts: 384
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 9:56 PM ET #263

    Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

    Guys,
    This shat is unbelievable.  What a horrible stretch we are on.  We continue to see inflated lines on some popular teams that are having really crappy seasons, esp Phi and Bos.....  I would advise those of you wanting to be more conservative to do the over .500 win percentage at home or stick just to the filtered plays.  I would not blame anyone for bailing at this point.  I have backtested the crap out of this and the win percentages for the different levels of plays always turned out pretty good but I can't even remember the last +money day we have had and now we are staring at another C bet.  I am just hoping this ship rights itself soon.



    We're still with you my man! Just trying to improve things as no one likes losing.

    Just a suggestion but how about we try tracking the first 5 innings as well? We would of avoided the BOS/PHI losses, however, to be fair I didn't back test for the other plays.
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    Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

    Guys,
    This shat is unbelievable.  What a horrible stretch we are on.  We continue to see inflated lines on some popular teams that are having really crappy seasons, esp Phi and Bos.....  I would advise those of you wanting to be more conservative to do the over .500 win percentage at home or stick just to the filtered plays.  I would not blame anyone for bailing at this point.  I have backtested the crap out of this and the win percentages for the different levels of plays always turned out pretty good but I can't even remember the last +money day we have had and now we are staring at another C bet.  I am just hoping this ship rights itself soon.



    We're still with you my man! Just trying to improve things as no one likes losing.

    Just a suggestion but how about we try tracking the first 5 innings as well? We would of avoided the BOS/PHI losses, however, to be fair I didn't back test for the other plays.
     
    therizz
    therizz
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    Posts: 2304
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 10:06 PM ET #264

    Sorry guys, this system sucks balls this year.  You guys could probably do pretty well by fading at this point.  I am going to keep posting standard system, but I agree we should track 1st 5 innings and filtering out under .500 teams as well.  My databases do not have scores by inning, so I can't backtest it...  Now we are looking at Boston as another play for tomorrow


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    Sorry guys, this system sucks balls this year.  You guys could probably do pretty well by fading at this point.  I am going to keep posting standard system, but I agree we should track 1st 5 innings and filtering out under .500 teams as well.  My databases do not have scores by inning, so I can't backtest it...  Now we are looking at Boston as another play for tomorrow


     
    therizz
    therizz
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    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 10:09 PM ET #265

    Plays for 5/9

    SEASON RECORD: 33-4                                       -9.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
    NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #36 (G3) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190        95/3.16U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-60-90 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80-90

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30


    Reply
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    Plays for 5/9

    SEASON RECORD: 33-4                                       -9.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
    NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #36 (G3) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190        95/3.16U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-60-90 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80-90

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30


     
    therizz
    therizz
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    Posts: 2304
    Posted: May. 9, 2012 - 10:10 PM ET #266

    Plays for 5/10

    SEASON RECORD: 33-4                                       -9.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
    NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #38 (G1) 7:00 cle @ BOS -150  8.5       50/1.67U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-60-90 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80-90

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30
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    Plays for 5/10

    SEASON RECORD: 33-4                                       -9.13U
    AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
    NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
    O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

    Series Game Time Line o/u towin

    Ser #38 (G1) 7:00 cle @ BOS -150  8.5       50/1.67U

    * denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




    Labby Lines
    AL:                                                  NL:
    x-x-50-75                                           x-60-90 
    x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
    15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80-90

    *O/U Filter Plays

    22-23

    22-23

    22-23

    Base 1U = 30
     
    hehrsy
    hehrsy
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    Posts: 31
    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 12:29 AM ET #267

    Still a whole season left, im not worried, this system will be fine 
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    Still a whole season left, im not worried, this system will be fine 
     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
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    Posts: 2554
    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 6:37 AM ET #268

    Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

    Phillies Manager and Pen suck just as bad. Lee is pitching a very good game. Take him out when you already have the lead and he only has thrown 84 pitches only to leave it to your bullpen which has blown the last 2 games of the series WTF are you thinking!!!!!

    I agree.... you take Lee out which is understandable because its his first game back after the DL... then you put your reliever in who blows the lead. now your down by one....    you let that guy stay in and give up another run now down by 2, then YOU BRING HIM BACK FOR A THIRD INNING TO REALLY BLOW THE LEAD AS HE GIVES UP 4 BEFORE YOU TAKE HIM OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WHAT ARE YOU THE TIGERS OF THE NL!!!!    CMON!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

    Phillies Manager and Pen suck just as bad. Lee is pitching a very good game. Take him out when you already have the lead and he only has thrown 84 pitches only to leave it to your bullpen which has blown the last 2 games of the series WTF are you thinking!!!!!

    I agree.... you take Lee out which is understandable because its his first game back after the DL... then you put your reliever in who blows the lead. now your down by one....    you let that guy stay in and give up another run now down by 2, then YOU BRING HIM BACK FOR A THIRD INNING TO REALLY BLOW THE LEAD AS HE GIVES UP 4 BEFORE YOU TAKE HIM OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WHAT ARE YOU THE TIGERS OF THE NL!!!!    CMON!

     
    SoCal311
    SoCal311
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    Joined: Feb, 2012
    Posts: 381
    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 7:31 AM ET #269

    I think its time to put in the two filters Rizz was talking bout.... Dont play teams that are below or hovering .500 and maybe we should just play teams that the O/U 9.  Also if teams arent playing good dont play them....GL all... use you your judgement if you dont like the team dont play it...
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    I think its time to put in the two filters Rizz was talking bout.... Dont play teams that are below or hovering .500 and maybe we should just play teams that the O/U 9.  Also if teams arent playing good dont play them....GL all... use you your judgement if you dont like the team dont play it...
     
    SoCal311
    SoCal311
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    Joined: Feb, 2012
    Posts: 381
    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 7:33 AM ET #270

    New series on friday lets bounce back... If anyone has another idea for filters spit em out were here to win .... I love the fact nobody is bashing riz but supporting em thats awesome.. Thanks for sharing Rizz
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    New series on friday lets bounce back... If anyone has another idea for filters spit em out were here to win .... I love the fact nobody is bashing riz but supporting em thats awesome.. Thanks for sharing Rizz
     
    Air1
    Air1
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    Posts: 909
    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 3:30 PM ET #271

    Here are my results from 2011 for a home series chase for the 1st 5 innings only.

    A 112
    B 43
    C 22 (1 tied an a bet, 1 tied a+b bet)
    L cwsx2 cin (won B gm bet) Atl (same as cin won Bgm bet, but lost 1st five 1-0) Det (lost around All-start break [won C gm bet], same as 1CWS loss) cle lost on 8/26-28.
    TB (only 1 gm, rest of chase tied)
    Chc lost a 2 gm chase. gm3 tied.
    fla lost gm1 only tied rest
    Stl lost 2 1gm was a tie
    Sea lost 1st 2 tied 3rd
    oak lost a 2gm series
    cin lost a 2gm series
    SF lost 1st 2 tied 3rd
    Atl lost 1st 2 tied 3rd (won game)
    Bos tied 2 of 3
    Bos 2 gm loss, gm3 ppd
    Lad lost 1 tied 2
    cin tied gm1 lost 2/3
    CWS lost 2 tied 1 gm
    Atl lost gm1 tied 2/3
    Cle tied first lost 2/3
    NYY tied 1 lost 2
    Tor tied 1 lost 2
    Det lost gm1 tied 2/3
    CWS tied 1st lost 2/3
    atl tied 1st lost 2/3
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    Here are my results from 2011 for a home series chase for the 1st 5 innings only.

    A 112
    B 43
    C 22 (1 tied an a bet, 1 tied a+b bet)
    L cwsx2 cin (won B gm bet) Atl (same as cin won Bgm bet, but lost 1st five 1-0) Det (lost around All-start break [won C gm bet], same as 1CWS loss) cle lost on 8/26-28.
    TB (only 1 gm, rest of chase tied)
    Chc lost a 2 gm chase. gm3 tied.
    fla lost gm1 only tied rest
    Stl lost 2 1gm was a tie
    Sea lost 1st 2 tied 3rd
    oak lost a 2gm series
    cin lost a 2gm series
    SF lost 1st 2 tied 3rd
    Atl lost 1st 2 tied 3rd (won game)
    Bos tied 2 of 3
    Bos 2 gm loss, gm3 ppd
    Lad lost 1 tied 2
    cin tied gm1 lost 2/3
    CWS lost 2 tied 1 gm
    Atl lost gm1 tied 2/3
    Cle tied first lost 2/3
    NYY tied 1 lost 2
    Tor tied 1 lost 2
    Det lost gm1 tied 2/3
    CWS tied 1st lost 2/3
    atl tied 1st lost 2/3
     
    Air1
    Air1
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    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 3:49 PM ET #272

    I did this yrs last night and ended up missing a few series. so I recheck today and now I have a few extra

    I don't know what happened. if anyone wants to check again, please be my guest!
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    I did this yrs last night and ended up missing a few series. so I recheck today and now I have a few extra

    I don't know what happened. if anyone wants to check again, please be my guest!
     
    Air1
    Air1
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    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 3:49 PM ET #273

    opps the results

    2012
    A 21
    B 9 (1 A as tie)
    C 1 (or B as gm2 was a tie through 5)
    L SF DET Phi (won C gm bet) LAA (tie a bet 0-0, won gm1)
    missing 3 chases?

    2012
    A 26
    B 9
    C
    L Det vs Sea, sf vs mia, Phi vs mets 4/13-15 (won C gm bet)
    LAA (tie a bet 0-0, won gm1)
    TB lost gm1 tied gm2 (won full game), no gm3

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    opps the results

    2012
    A 21
    B 9 (1 A as tie)
    C 1 (or B as gm2 was a tie through 5)
    L SF DET Phi (won C gm bet) LAA (tie a bet 0-0, won gm1)
    missing 3 chases?

    2012
    A 26
    B 9
    C
    L Det vs Sea, sf vs mia, Phi vs mets 4/13-15 (won C gm bet)
    LAA (tie a bet 0-0, won gm1)
    TB lost gm1 tied gm2 (won full game), no gm3

     
    Air1
    Air1
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    Posts: 909
    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 4:01 PM ET #274

    forgot to mention the second time i did 2012 I made it so that when a game is tied you redo the bet that was tied. 2011 i did not do that.
    If that theory was applied to the system then A + B games would hit at a higher rate than C games (and obviously less C bets) along with a certain labby lines, 1st 5 can be just as if not more profitable than full games
    At least that is what I believe.
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    forgot to mention the second time i did 2012 I made it so that when a game is tied you redo the bet that was tied. 2011 i did not do that.
    If that theory was applied to the system then A + B games would hit at a higher rate than C games (and obviously less C bets) along with a certain labby lines, 1st 5 can be just as if not more profitable than full games
    At least that is what I believe.
     
     
    Riceboi
    Riceboi
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    Joined: Feb, 2011
    Posts: 5372
    Posted: May. 10, 2012 - 9:07 PM ET #275

    Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

    forgot to mention the second time i did 2012 I made it so that when a game is tied you redo the bet that was tied. 2011 i did not do that.
    If that theory was applied to the system then A + B games would hit at a higher rate than C games (and obviously less C bets) along with a certain labby lines, 1st 5 can be just as if not more profitable than full games
    At least that is what I believe.


    what about 1st 5inn with the RL (-.5) can get way better odds than ML?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

    forgot to mention the second time i did 2012 I made it so that when a game is tied you redo the bet that was tied. 2011 i did not do that.
    If that theory was applied to the system then A + B games would hit at a higher rate than C games (and obviously less C bets) along with a certain labby lines, 1st 5 can be just as if not more profitable than full games
    At least that is what I believe.


    what about 1st 5inn with the RL (-.5) can get way better odds than ML?
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