2011 Opening Game Favorite

Nevermind Rizz I see on your post!

Classic cubs.  They would have been a play the way it was played last year by closing above -150, so it would have been solid especially since they met the over/under filter.

They opened at -150 at almost every book except pinnacle (which is what I backtested against) but they very qucikly increased the line.  AZ is historically a team the cubs actually play pretty well against.... oh well on to the next one.

Rizz - how many total units would you recommend safely having in your bankroll to run this on the aggressive labby? How many do you use? 100? 200?

I am using 100.  Last year about 150.  Hoping to build a little cushion then be more aggressive with the labby lines......

Plays for 4/4:

System record 8-1-0                        -4.4U with labby

Filter plays 2-0 (2-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 8-1

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

*Series#8 (G1) 7:05             min @ NYY-144     10

*Series#9 (G1) 8:05            sea @ TEX -155        9

*Series#10 (G1) 8:15            pit @ STL -141        9 

-to win 2.0U each. 

-CHC just missed criteria (pinnacle opened at -140)

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 5

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-4.4 U aggressive labby updated 4/4 PM

Labby Lines

5-5-17-16     +20, +20, -28 = +12

5-5-5-5-27-14        

5-5-16-13   

Plays for 4/5:

System record 8-1-0                        -4.4U with labby

Filter plays 2-0 (2-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 8-1

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

*Series#10 (G2) 8:15            pit @ STL -149       

*Series#11 (G1) 7:05             BOS -151 @ cle     9

Series#12 (G1) 7:05             nym @ PHI -191, RL ?   8.5

Series#13 (G1) 7:10             hou @ CIN -165       8.5

*Series #14 (G1) 7:10            was @ FLA -157      9

-to win 2.1U each.   STL to win 1.9U 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 5

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-4.4 U aggressive labby updated 4/4 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: 5-5-17-16     

G2's: 5-5-5-5-27-14        

G3's: 5-5-16-13   

Rizz, Boston is at Cleveland

Don't  know where Rizz is, but the only play today should be Philly. Unless you played the Boston series. And if my calculations are correct on his lines, the play should be to win 2.6 units. I don't have his permission, but just following and trying to help out! GL

You were right Disco.  I should not have posted Boston.  I confused myself because I was originally only going to play away series that passed the o/u filter(21-1 last year), but posted to only play home teams....  I will update everything as if they were a play.  In the future we will just focus on home teams.  If you did not play boston your lines will look better.  I will try to post both.

 

Plays for 4/5:

System record 11-1-0                        -4.1U with labby

Filter plays 4-0 (4-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 11-1

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

*Series#10 (G2) 8:15            pit @ STL -149       

*Series#11 (G1) 7:05             BOS -151 @ cle    

Series#12 (G1) 7:05             nym @ PHI -191, RL  

Series#13 (G1) 7:10             hou @ CIN -165      

*Series #14 (G1) 7:10            was @ FLA -157     

-to win 2.1U each.   STL to win 1.9U 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 7

Game 2 wins = 3

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-4.1 U aggressive labby updated 4/4 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-1-x-29           +21, +21, -28, -30

G2's: x-5-5-5-27-29         +19               =+0.3

G3's: 5-5-16-13   

If played boston, PHI on -1 (-135)

Lines if you did not play BOS

G1's: x-x-15                +21, +21, -28

G2's: x-5-5-5-21-21         +19                             +3.3U

G3's: 5-5-16-13   

Overall -1.1U, Play to win 2.6U on PHI for Game 2

Plays for 4/6:

System record 11-1-0                        -4.1U with labby

Filter plays 4-0 (4-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 11-1

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

*Series#11 (G2) 7:05             BOS -148 @ cle    

Series#12 (G2) 7:05             nym @ PHI -135

-see above, either play to win 2.6 or 3.4U 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 7

Game 2 wins = 3

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-4.1 U aggressive labby updated 4/4 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-1-x-29          

G2's: x-5-5-5-27-29        

G3's: 5-5-16-13   

 

Guys, I am not sure what to do with this BOS play messup on my part.  I did not play it after seeing disco's post at work but couldn't post from there not to play it (restrictions on the computers).

Long story short, it is getting complicated to update these lines.  If you did play them and want to keep chasing you would play to win 2.5U tomorrow, but they are falling outside the parameters I wanted to play the system this year.

As a compromise, I am going to post/update lines as if people played game 1 and jumped off the series.  I will just adjust to playing these lines.

I am sorry to those that played them, obviously the linesmakers were way off on this series.  If they lose tomorrow I will reflect it in the overall series record, but not system record.

Plays for 4/6:

System record 12-1-0                        -0.7U with labby

Filter plays 4-0 (4-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 12-1

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

*Series#11 (G2) 7:05           BOS -148 @ cle  (see above) 

Series#12 (G2) 7:05             nym @ PHI -135   

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 7

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-0.7 U aggressive labby updated 4/6 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-1-x-29          

G2's: x-x-5-5-27-x        +34

G3's: 5-5-16-13   

thanks Rizz for all you do on this thread, much appreciated!

Rizz...IMO throw the Boston thing completely out. System was stated in post #1, Disco caught it. We all need to read and think and we all want to know how a system is working with the parameters outlined. Records may be cluttered with a mistake on your part, not the systems failure.

The worst part is Boston returns home Friday night for a series with the NYY and could they be a play for the weekend?

GL

Thanks guys, I agree on not trying to clutter things.  I am hoping we don't see boston as an official play for a while until they get their offense going.  I remember them getting swept by the Rays early in the season last year which would have been a system loss if it wasn't for a rainout in G1

I read the first couple of posts.  The filters "play on home teams" "o/u 9" were there, if someone wanted to use them.  But from the first couple of posts, I thought the plays outside the filter would count in the system record.  Am I reading this incorrectly? 

Plays for 4/8:

System record 12-1-0                        -0.7U with labby

o/uFilter plays 4-1 (4-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 12-1   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

*Series#14 (G1) 3:05            kc @ DET -157      9

Series#15 (G1) 4:10             was @ NYM -145   8 

Series#16 (G1) 4:15             stl @ SF -156        7.5 

-all 3 to win 2U

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 7

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

-0.7 U aggressive labby updated 4/6 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: 5-5-15-15          

G2's: 5-5-14-14        

G3's: 5-5-15-15   

I am going to track the road series that meet criteria and pass the o/u filter this year but not play them.  System record will only include home teams.

The all series record will include all the series played including some 2 game series we will see next month as well as Interleague plays.

Feel free to play it however you would like.  Last year we played every series that opened at -145 or higher on pinnacle, closed at -150 or higher on covers home or away.  Trying to be more selective this year.  We will see how it goes.

Plays for 4/8:

System record 14-1-0                        +0.3U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 14-1   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

*Series#14 (G1) 3:05            kc @ DET -157      9   

Series#15 (G1) 4:10             was @ NYM -145   8  

Series#16 (G1) 4:15             stl @ SF -156        7.5 

-all 3 to win 2U

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 9

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+0.3 U aggressive labby updated 4/8 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-x-15         +20, -30, +20 = +10 

G2's: 5-5-21-22        

G3's: 5-5-15-15   

Plays for 4/9:

System record 14-1-0                        +0.3U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 14-1   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

Series#15 (G2) 7:10             was @ NYM -130  to win 2.6U

 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 9

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+0.3 U aggressive labby updated 4/8 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-x-15        

G2's: 5-5-21-22        

G3's: 5-5-15-15   

Plays for 4/9:

System record 15-1-0                        +2.9U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 15-1   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

Series#15 (G2) 7:10             was @ NYM -130  to win 2.6U

 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 9

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+2.9 U aggressive labby updated 4/9 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-x-15        

G2's: x-5-21-x        

G3's: 5-5-15-15   

Plays for 4/11:

System record 15-1-0                        +2.9U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 15-1   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

*Series#17 (G1) 7:10             tb @ BOS -146     9

Series#18 (G1) 10:05            cle @ LAA -176     8

##Series#19 (G1) 10:10           tor  @ SEA -163     6.5

-to win 1.5U, see below re:  SEA

 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 9

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+2.9 U aggressive labby updated 4/9 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-x-15        

G2's: x-5-21-x        

G3's: 5-5-15-15   

Guys, as of right now I don't think I will be playing any money on SEA.  They came up as plays last year also because of Hernandez and Lee 5 or 6 times.  They caused 2 series losses.  They were swept 6 homestands last year.  Not exactly a team that deserves to have this kind of juice laid on them.....  They are also ranked at 29/30 for as home team power ranking....